2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · State Farm Stadium
Los Angeles RamsWinner
37
Arizona Cardinals
14
Los Angeles Rams 37–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:26, ARI +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to ARI 31 for 42 yards (24-S.Thomas).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 14:26ARI +12% win prob(14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to ARI 31 for 42 yards (24-S.Thomas).
- Q2 · 3:41LA +8% win prob(3:41) 8-L.Havrisik 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
- Q1 · 1:18LA +6% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 18-B.Skowronek to ARI 42 for -1 yards (13-K.Clark, 3-B.Baker).
- Q2 · 2:00LA +5% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride (4-J.Fuller).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 11:23LA Touchdown
(11:23) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 7 — ARI 0 - Q1 · 4:54ARI Touchdown
(4:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: LA 7 — ARI 8 - Q2 · 10:01LA Touchdown
(10:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Ledbetter]. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 14 — ARI 8 - Q2 · 1:05LA Touchdown
(1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 21 — ARI 8 - Q3 · 7:36LA Field goal
(7:36) 8-L.Havrisik 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: LA 24 — ARI 8 - Q4 · 12:45LA Touchdown
(12:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.Gardeck]. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 31 — ARI 8 - Q4 · 8:27LA Touchdown
(8:27) 24-R.Freeman right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LA 37 — ARI 8 - Q4 · 5:17ARI Touchdown
(5:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 83-G.Dortch for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LA 37 — ARI 14
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Rams | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 66 |
| Total yards | 457 (edge) | 294 |
| Yards per play | 6.9 (edge) | 4.5 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.33 (edge) | -0.14 |
| Success rate | 56% (edge) | 38% |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 76% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.37 (edge) | -0.29 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.29 | 0.32 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/12 (edge) | 6/17 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 25 (edge) | 18 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · ARI
27/45, 256 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-14.3 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected
Passing · LA
25/33, 229 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
13.2 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | LA 25 | 11 | 75 | 3:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | ARI | ARI 25 | 14 | 75 | 6:28 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 3 | LA | LA 25 | 10 | 33 | 4:17 | Punt | |
| 4 | ARI | ARI 10 | 4 | 4 | 0:39 | Punt | |
| 5 | LA | LA 49 | 9 | 51 | 4:57 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | ARI | ARI 25 | 5 | -3 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 7 | LA | LA 29 | 8 | 50 | 4:46 | Missed field goal | |
| 8 | ARI | ARI 40 | 4 | 8 | 1:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | LA | ARI 48 | 5 | 48 | 0:57 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | ARI | ARI 25 | 5 | 6 | 0:27 | Punt | |
| 11 | LA | LA 27 | 3 | 30 | 0:17 | Interception | |
| 12 | ARI | ARI 48 | 3 | 14 | 0:15 | End of half | |
| 13 | ARI | ARI 25 | 9 | 35 | 3:38 | Punt | |
| 14 | LA | LA 22 | 7 | 72 | 3:49 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | ARI | ARI 25 | 7 | 42 | 2:30 | Missed field goal | |
| 16 | LA | LA 46 | 14 | 54 | 7:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | ARI | ARI 25 | 5 | -18 | 1:21 | Punt | |
| 18 | LA | ARI 38 | 6 | 38 | 3:01 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 19 | ARI | ARI 25 | 12 | 70 | 3:07 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 20 | LA | ARI 47 | 5 | 6 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 21 | ARI | ARI 20 | 11 | 61 | 3:28 | End of game |
8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Los Angeles Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/33 | 229 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 16 | 143 | 8.9 | 0 | 8.9 |
| Royce Freeman | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 1 | 2.8 |
| Zach Evans | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 3 | 3 | 76 | 0 | 10% | 7.3 |
| Kyren Williams | 6 | 6 | 61 | 2 | 19% | 6.9 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 5 | 29 | 2 | 16% | 3.4 |
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 26% | -4.1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 16% | 0.4 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | 2.2 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 0.9 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | -2.0 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derion Kendrick | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jake Hummel | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Taylor | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Vius Tomlinson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobie Turner | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Reeder | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Arizona Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/45 | 256 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -14.3 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Blake Gillikin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Kyler Murray | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 1.7 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 12 | 88 | 0 | 27% | 0.2 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 20% | -2.1 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 7% | -1.8 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 20% | -1.2 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 1.5 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 9% | -1.8 |
| James Conner | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11% | -2.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kei'Trel Clark | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Krys Barnes | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Ojulari | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Woods | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ledbetter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Starling Thomas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- LA -3
- Closing total
- 45
- LA moneyline
- -148
- ARI moneyline
- +124
Rams closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 45; the game landed 51 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- State Farm Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Shawn Smith
- Rest
- LA 7 days · ARI 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean McVay vs Jonathan Gannon
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.