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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:26 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Rams168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to ARI 31 for 42 yards (24-S.Thomas).
Swing −12.5 for CardinalsExpected points −4.32 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 19 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:26ARI +12% win prob(14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to ARI 31 for 42 yards (24-S.Thomas).
2nd · 3:41LA +8% win prob(3:41) 8-L.Havrisik 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
1st · 1:18LA +6% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 18-B.Skowronek to ARI 42 for -1 yards (13-K.Clark, 3-B.Baker).
2nd · 2:00LA +5% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride (4-J.Fuller).
1st · 4:54ARI +5% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:27ARI +5% win prob(13:27) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 5-T.Atwell ran ob at ARI 21 for 13 yards (24-S.Thomas).
2nd · 0:21
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Higbee's 5-yard touchdown catch with 10:01 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:23Tyler Higbee·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–0
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.33Rams: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.14Cardinals: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Rams: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.29Cardinals: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Rams: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.32Cardinals: +0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 66 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 66 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Cardinals 2.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's early-down pass rate, 77.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 65.3% in week 4.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, +1.9 pts, is past their previous high of −0.2 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
LA's blitz rate sent turned over: 43.9% in week 11 against 12.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Cardinals8.8%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.3%, 23.8 points above their season mean of 53.4% and 2.1 times their own 11.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to ARI 31 for 42 yards (24-S.Thomas).
Q1 14:26 · Rams · 3rd & 8 at LA 27 · gained 42 · +4.32 EP · +14.0% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 75 yards from the LA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.3556%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.2680%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0170%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.240%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0167%
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Rams6Cardinals0
Rams7Cardinals0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 7
Rams7Cardinals6
Rams7Cardinals8
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 2
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 41
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt1 play
Rams13Cardinals8
Rams14Cardinals8
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Cardinals 5
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 28
No good10 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Cardinals 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Cardinals 48
Rams20Cardinals8
Rams21Cardinals8
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 15
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Cardinals 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Rams 38
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 38
Rams24Cardinals8
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Cardinals 6
No good8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 38
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Cardinals 23
4th quarter50 plays
Rams30Cardinals8
Rams31Cardinals8
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 3
Punt5 plays
Rams37Cardinals8
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Cardinals 23
Rams37Cardinals14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 6
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 41
The period ended13 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Rams 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -3
Closing total
45
Rams moneyline
-148
Cardinals moneyline
+124
Rams closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 45; the game landed 51 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Rams 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Jonathan Gannon
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
LA +5% win prob
(:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 17-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at ARI 34. 34-J.Thompson to ARI 48 for 14 yards (89-T.Higbee).
2nd · 10:01ARI +4% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Ledbetter].
Ramscategory by categoryCardinals
Rams6
Cardinals0
