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Miami Dolphins 34, Jets 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:02, 1st and 10, on Jevon Holland — 12.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:02 · 1st and 10
Jevon Holland
Dolphins
(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dolphins closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Miami Dolphins 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, Dolphins +12.9% win probability on one snap.
12.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tua TagovailoaJetsQ1 6:37(6:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill (1-A.Gardner).
7.9pts
Brandin EcholsJetsQ2 1:05(1:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 0-B.Berrios INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 30. 26-B.Echols for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 1 chunk play.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 11 of 16 on third down, against Jets at 5 of 14 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Dolphins159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.9 for JetsExpected points −7.28 for JetsThe model had Jets 21 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:02MIA +13% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:05MIA +11% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 0-B.Berrios INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 30. 26-B.Echols for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:37MIA +8% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill (1-A.Gardner).
1st · 13:49NYJ +5% win prob(13:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 16-J.Brownlee to NYJ 38 for 5 yards (5-J.Ramsey). PENALTY on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 33 - No Play.
1st · 10:52NYJ +5% win prob(10:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill to NYJ 37 for 35 yards (4-D.Reed).
2nd · 0:09MIA +4% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 4-D.Reed at NYJ 49. 4-D.Reed to NYJ 49 for no gain (10-T.Hill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 38-yard field goal with 1:29 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:29Jason Sanders·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+33–0
2nd8:25Tyreek Hill·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+710–0
2nd1:05Brandin Echols·30-yd defence TD30-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide right+610–6
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Dolphins: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.38Jets: −0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Dolphins: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.41Jets: −0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Dolphins: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.25Jets: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 67 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Jets’s 55 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Jets 2.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's play-action rate, 6.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, −10.0 pts, is past their previous low of −8.1 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 11.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 7.0% in week 11 against 31.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jets6.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.8 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.0%, 17.5 points below their season mean of 51.5% and 1.5 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive
66Lester CottonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Every snap100%70 snaps
58Connor WilliamsC · Every snap100%70 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap99%69 snaps
73Austin JacksonT · Full-time89%62 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation63%44 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Heavy rotation60%42 snaps
0Braxton BerriosWR · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
11Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational39%27 snaps
85River CracraftWR · Rotational34%24 snaps
23Jeffery WilsonRB · Rotational33%23 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Rotational30%21 snaps
71Kion SmithG · Rotational30%21 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational29%20 snaps
70Kendall LammT · Situational11%8 snaps
82Tyler KroftTE · Situational9%6 snaps
37Darrynton EvansRB · Situational7%5 snaps
14Mike WhiteQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Eli AppleCBRobert JonesGSkylar ThompsonQBDevon AchaneRBChase ClaypoolWRRobbie ChosenWR
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
61Max MitchellT · Every snap100%58 snaps
78Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%58 snaps
65Xavier Newman-JohnsonG · Every snap100%58 snaps
66Joe TippmannC · Every snap100%58 snaps
67Carter WarrenT · Every snap100%58 snaps
7Tim BoyleQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
16Jason BrownleeWR · Full-time98%57 snaps
17Garrett WilsonWR · Full-time95%55 snaps
82Xavier GipsonWR · Heavy rotation72%42 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Heavy rotation60%35 snaps
89Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational45%26 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Rotational33%19 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Situational12%7 snaps
48Nick BawdenFB · Situational10%6 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Situational5%3 snaps
19Irvin CharlesWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Michael CarterCBCarl LawsonDESam EguavoenILBZach WilsonQBMekhi BectonTAustin DeculusTAllen LazardWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Boyle pass−22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:02 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 49 · gained nothing · -7.28 EP · −22.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 92 yards from the MIA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
554
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.4291%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0472%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.0518%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0314%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0740%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 41
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Jets 4
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 5 to the Jets 13
Dolphins3Jets0
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Jets 20
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays
Dolphins9Jets0
Dolphins10Jets0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Jets 7
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 43
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Dolphins10Jets6
Touchdown1 play
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Dolphins 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Dolphins16Jets6
Touchdown1 play
Dolphins17Jets6
3rd quarter30 plays
Dolphins20Jets6
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 30
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 31
The period ended17 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Jets 27
4th quarter55 plays
Dolphins26Jets6
Dolphins27Jets6
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted21 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 14
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 37
Dolphins27Jets12
Dolphins27Jets13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 1
Dolphins33Jets13
Dolphins34Jets13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Jets 34
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 46
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -9.5
Closing total
40
Dolphins moneyline
-500
Jets moneyline
+380
Dolphins closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 40; the game landed 47 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 49°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Dolphins 5 days · Jets 5 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Robert Saleh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 12:03NYJ +4% win prob(12:03) 5-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.
1st · 11:56NYJ +3% win prob(11:56) 31-R.Mostert left end to MIA 11 for -4 yards (95-Q.Williams). PENALTY on NYJ-70-Q.Jefferson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 11.
