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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Fri, Nov 24, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q2 0:02, 1st and 10, on Jevon Holland — 12.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, Dolphins +12.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:02 · 1st and 10
Jevon Holland
Dolphins
(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 1 chunk play.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 11 of 16 on third down, against Jets at 5 of 14 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Sanders's 38-yard field goal with 1:29 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jason Sanders38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+33–0
Brandin Echols30-yd defense TD30-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · kick no good, wide right+610–68 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 67 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Jets’s 55 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Jets 2.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
NYJ's play-action rate, 6.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
MIA's pass rate over expected, −10.0 pts, is past their previous low of −8.1 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 7.0% in week 11 against 31.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · +0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-10.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.0 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 67 snaps
Jets6.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 97%
Tendencies room →Dolphins34.0%leaned — ran early · −17.5 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 50 early downs
Jets76.3%leaned — passed early · +15.5 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 47%
Tendencies room →Dolphins25.0%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Jets6.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.6 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 134%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.2%.
Jets33.3%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Dolphins31.1%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jets15.6%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 40%
Tendencies room →Dolphins24.4%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jets6.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.8 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
MIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.0%, 17.5 points below their season mean of 51.5% and 1.5 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
21/30, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
4.5 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
27/38, 179 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-18.7 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Raheem Mostert banked 7.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.4 | +5.0 | 63% | 82% | 43% | 30% | 1 car, 2 yd · 9/12, 102 yd, 1 TD |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 21.4 | +7.8 | 60% | 55% | 4% | 3% | 20 car, 94 yd, 2 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.4 | +7.0 | 66% | 82% | 29% | 54% | 8/8, 114 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.4 | +2.5 | 95% | 100% | 28% | 68% | 7/10, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.9 | −3.2 | 66% | 60% | 25% | 0% | 7 car, 25 yd · 7/9, 24 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Committee Back | 10.3 | +0.2 | 33% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 11 car, 56 yd · 3/3, 17 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 7.8 | −5.7 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 243 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Tim BoyleQB · Starter QB | 7.4 | −3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/38, 179 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +0.4 | 60% | 56% | 14% | 11% | 4/5, 33 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB | 4.1 | −0.3 | 33% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/3, 19 yd |
| Jason BrownleeWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +1.2 | 98% | 100% | 6% | 10% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −2.0 | 45% | 47% | 11% | 12% | 2/4, 18 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.1 | 72% | 78% | 6% | 7% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.3 | 77% | 85% | 11% | 10% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Darrynton EvansRB | 1.6 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nick BawdenRB | 1.6 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 54% | 82% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Irvin CharlesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mike WhiteQB | -0.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:02 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 49 · gained nothing · -7.28 EP · −22.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 92 yards from the MIA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Dolphins3
Jets0Dolphins9Jets0Dolphins10Jets0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Dolphins10Jets6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Dolphins16Jets6Dolphins17Jets6Dolphins20Jets6Dolphins26Jets6Dolphins27Jets6Dolphins27Jets12Dolphins27Jets13Dolphins33Jets13Dolphins34Jets13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/30 | 243 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Darrynton Evans |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 8 | 114 | 0 | 29% | +8.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 12 | 102 | 1 | 43% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Baker | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jevon Holland | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kader Kohou |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 27/38 | 179 | 1 | 2 | 7 | −18.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_MIA_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 40; the game landed 47 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 16 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −6.3 |
| Mike White | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| +7.8 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 11% | +1.3 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −1.2 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −7.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Needham | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Shawn Hand | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 10 | 44 | 1 | 28% | +4.0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 14% | +3.0 |
| Breece Hall | 7 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 25% | −7.3 |
| Jason Brownlee | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 11% | −0.1 |
| Xavier Gipson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Reed | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jermaine Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solomon Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
