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2023 Week 12 · Fri, Nov 24, 2023 · MetLife Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

34

New York Jets

13

MIA -9.5 ✓O 40 ✓

Miami Dolphins 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, MIA +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑MIA ↓
Q2 · 0:02MIA 16 — NYJ 6NYJ ball · 1st & 10MIA 83%

(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:02MIA +13% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 1:05MIA +11% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 0-B.Berrios INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 30. 26-B.Echols for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 6:37MIA +8% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill (1-A.Gardner).
  4. Q1 · 13:49NYJ +5% win prob(13:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 16-J.Brownlee to NYJ 38 for 5 yards (5-J.Ramsey). PENALTY on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 33 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:29MIA Field goal

    (1:29) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — NYJ 0
  2. Q2 · 8:25MIA Touchdown

    (8:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — NYJ 0
  3. Q2 · 1:05NYJ Touchdown

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 0-B.Berrios INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 30. 26-B.Echols for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — NYJ 6
  4. Q2 · 0:02MIA Touchdown

    (:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 1. 8-J.Holland for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — NYJ 6
  5. Q3 · 11:20MIA Field goal

    (11:20) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — NYJ 6
  6. Q4 · 15:00MIA Touchdown

    (15:00) 31-R.Mostert right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 27 — NYJ 6
  7. Q4 · 4:41NYJ Touchdown

    (4:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short right to 17-G.Wilson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 27 — NYJ 13
  8. Q4 · 3:44MIA Touchdown

    (3:44) 31-R.Mostert right tackle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 34 — NYJ 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsJets
Offensive plays6755
Total yards397 (edge)159
Yards per play5.9 (edge)2.9
Expected points added / play0.04 (edge)-0.38
Success rate45% (edge)35%
Dropback rate48%82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)-0.41
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.01 (edge)-0.25
Third downs11/16 (edge)5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)11
Sacks taken2 (edge)7
Turnovers32 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/30, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

4.5 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Tim BoyleQB

27/38, 179 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-18.7 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

20 att, 94 yds, 2 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Jeffery WilsonRB

11 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

8/8 for 114 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

9/12 for 102 yds, 1 TD

43% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 257113:04Punt
2MIAMIA 1511665:23Turnover on downs
3NYJNYJ 5481:36Punt
4MIAMIA 447363:31Field goal +3
5NYJNYJ 25532:06Punt
6MIAMIA 4012605:59Touchdown +7
7NYJNYJ 256112:12Punt
8MIAMIA 186203:52Punt
9NYJNYJ 224141:12Punt
10MIAMIA 27100:07Defensive touchdown
11MIAMIA 137320:56Interception
12NYJNYJ 49100:02Defensive touchdown
13MIAMIA 258393:44Field goal +3
14NYJNYJ 27532:18Punt
15MIAMIA 816829:03Touchdown +7
16NYJNYJ 2518557:01Interception
17MIAMIA 213161:29Fumble
18NYJMIA 357301:48Touchdown +7
19MIANYJ 466461:02Touchdown +7
20NYJNYJ 2511243:00Turnover on downs
21MIANYJ 49100:35End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 82 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa21/302431224.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert20944.723.9
Jeffery Wilson11565.100.8
Darrynton Evans2168.000.6
Tyreek Hill122.00-0.7
Tua Tagovailoa210.50-6.3
Mike White1-2-2.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle88114029%8.9
Tyreek Hill912102143%7.8
Jeffery Wilson3317011%1.3
Durham Smythe1310011%-1.2
Raheem Mostert01004%-0.6
Braxton Berrios01004%-7.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jerome Baker600.012
Jevon Holland500.011
Kader Kohou320.000
David Long Jr.310.000
Jaelan Phillips311.001
Christian Wilkins302.000
Nik Needham120.000
Da'Shawn Hand301.000
Bradley Chubb110.000
Andrew Van Ginkel110.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tim Boyle27/38179127-18.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall7253.60-1.5
Tim Boyle221.00-0.8
Dalvin Cook122.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson71044128%4.0
Tyler Conklin4533014%3.0
Breece Hall7924025%-7.3
Jason Brownlee222006%0.8
Dalvin Cook231908%0.3
Jeremy Ruckert2418011%-0.1
Xavier Gipson221506%1.4
Nick Bawden11603%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
C.J. Mosley850.001
D.J. Reed820.011
Jordan Whitehead510.000
Ahmad Gardner240.001
Quincy Williams230.000
Quinnen Williams230.000
Ashtyn Davis400.001
Jermaine Johnson130.000
Solomon Thomas030.500
Brandin Echols110.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -9.5
Closing total
40
MIA moneyline
-500
NYJ moneyline
+380

Dolphins closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 40; the game landed 47 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
48°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
MIA 5 days · NYJ 5 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.