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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q4 0:06, 4th and 5, on Chad Ryland — 37.1 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:06 · 4th and 5
Chad Ryland
Giants
(:06) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. PENALTY on NYG-29-X.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced between downs.
New York Giants 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, Giants +37.1% win probability on one snap.
37.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.54 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Giants won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(:06) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. PENALTY on NYG-29-X.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced between downs.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Randy Bullock's 42-yard field goal with 8:13 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Randy Bullock42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+37–103 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryGiants
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Patriots, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 68 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Giants’s 49 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Giants 1.
Patriots outgained Giants 283-221 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-9.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 68 snaps
Giants2.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 90%
Tendencies room →Patriots46.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 52 early downs
Giants58.3%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 46%
Tendencies room →Patriots16.2%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Giants18.2%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 146%
Fourth Down room →Patriots40.0%right on their number · +8.8 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Giants0.0%leaned — took the kick · −46.3 vs their 46.3%, and they swing ±39.0 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 91%
Tendencies room →Patriots30.3%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Giants56.8%inside their normal wobble · +13.5 vs their 43.2%, and they swing ±18.6 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 28%
Tendencies room →Patriots18.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Giants8.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 46.3 points below their season mean of 46.3% and 1.2 times their own 39.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
17/25, 191 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-1.8 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Passing · NE
12/21, 89 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-9.9 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jalin Hyatt banked 7.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.7 | +4.6 | 78% | 84% | 14% | 0% | 21 car, 98 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 9 yd |
| Jalin HyattWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | +7.2 | 60% | 67% | 25% | 67% | 5/6, 109 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.9 | −1.5 | 49% | 59% | 26% | 26% | 6/9, 49 yd |
| Tommy DeVitoQB · Starter QB | 10.2 | +1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/25, 191 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 6 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +6.8 | 35% | 21% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +0.2 | 75% | 81% | 14% | 17% | 3/5, 42 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 7.2 | +0.7 | 22% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 9 car, 46 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | 0.0 | 77% | 79% | 21% | 7% | 4/5, 26 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.2 | −3.6 | 81% | 73% | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 46 yd · 1/3, 6 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −2.8 | 44% | 38% | 14% | 9% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/5, 19 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −0.5 | 54% | 48% | 13% | 14% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −2.9 | 65% | 62% | 11% | 25% | 2/4, 10 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 2.6 | −0.2 | 19% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.8 | 16% | 14% | 6% | 26% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 90% | 88% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.9 | 31% | 36% | 13% | 16% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Bailey ZappeQB · Starter QB | 0.2 | −2.9 | 49% | — | 0% | — | 9/14, 54 yd, 1 INT |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 26% | 32% | 6% | 10% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | -0.4 | −5.7 | 51% | — | 0% | — | 12/21, 89 yd, 2 INT |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:06) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. PENALTY on NYG-29-X.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 0:06 · Patriots · 4th & 5 at NYG 17 · gained nothing · -2.74 EP · −30.8% win probability
146 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 69 yards from the NE 8 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots0
Giants6Patriots0Giants7Patriots6Giants7Patriots7Giants7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots7Giants10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 12/21 | 89 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −9.9 |
| Bailey Zappe | 9/14 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 1 | +5.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Douglas | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 | 26% | −7.4 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 14% | +2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.C. Jackson | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keion White | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 17/25 | 191 | 1 | 0 | 6 | −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_NE_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 17 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −2.7 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −3.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14% | −3.1 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | +0.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 46 |
| 3.8 |
| 0 |
| −2.8 |
| Tommy DeVito | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | −7.4 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Hyatt | 5 | 6 | 109 | 0 | 25% | +9.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 21% | −0.5 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 4% | +3.3 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13% | −2.2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier McKinney | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Okereke | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Micah McFadden | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
