2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · MetLife Stadium

New England Patriots

New York GiantsWinner

NE -4.5 upsetU 36.5 ✓Patriots closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, NE +37% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:06NE 7 — NYG 10NE ball · 4th & 5NYG 57%

(:06) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. PENALTY on NYG-29-X.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:06NE +37% win prob(:06) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. PENALTY on NYG-29-X.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 · 4:39NE +21% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke at NYG 19. 58-B.Okereke to NE 26 for 55 yards (10-M.Jones; 62-S.Sow).
Q4 · 12:40NE +20% win prob(12:40) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at 50. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 32 for 18 yards (11-T.Thornton).
Q3 · 6:40NYG +16% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass deep right to 13-J.Hyatt pushed ob at NE 40 for 41 yards (29-J.Jackson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 2:00NYG Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 18-I.Hodgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — NYG 7
Q3 · 8:06NE Touchdown
(8:06) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — NYG 7
Q4 · 8:13NYG Field goal
(8:13) 46-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: NE 7 — NYG 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Giants
Offensive plays	68	49
Total yards	283 (edge)	221
Yards per play	4.2	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.16 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	41% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	54%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	-0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.54
Third downs	4/14	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Patriots outgained Giants 283–221 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Tommy DeVitoQB

17/25, 191 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

12/21, 89 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-9.9 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

21 att, 98 yds, 1 TD

5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Ezekiel ElliottRB

9 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Jalin HyattWR

5/6 for 109 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Demario DouglasWR

6/9 for 49 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 25	6	49	2:31	Fumble
2	NE	NE 26	4	8	1:45	Punt
3	NYG	NYG 24	5	15	1:34	Punt
4	NE	NE 20	10	43	4:16	Punt
5	NYG	NYG 6	6	20	2:53	Punt
6	NE	NE 20	4	15	1:58	Interception
7	NYG	NYG 43	5	22	0:57	Punt
8	NE	NE 9	4	9	1:36	Punt
9	NYG	NYG 42	4	5	1:27	Punt
10	NE	NE 8	12	69	6:36	Interception
11	NYG	NE 26	7	26	2:34	Touchdown +7
12	NE	NE 20	5	3	0:32	Punt
13	NYG	NYG 23	5	18	0:47	Punt
14	NE	NE 9	1	0	0:34	End of half
15	NE	NE 40	13	60	6:58	Touchdown +7
16	NYG	NYG 25	8	33	4:41	Punt
17	NE	NE 10	6	29	2:29	Punt
18	NYG	NYG 19	4	13	1:50	Punt
19	NE	NE 24	3	11	1:31	Interception
20	NYG	NE 32	7	18	4:21	Field goal +3
21	NE	NE 25	7	3	2:39	Punt
22	NYG	NYG 22	4	2	2:16	Punt
23	NE	50	10	33	3:12	Missed field goal
24	NYG	NYG 13	1	0	0:03	End of game

3 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 69 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	12/21	89	0	2	1	-9.9
Bailey Zappe	9/14	54	0	1	1	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	21	98	4.7	1	5.1
Ezekiel Elliott	9	46	5.1	0	0.5
Tyquan Thornton	1	3	3.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Demario Douglas	6	9	49	26%	-7.4
DeVante Parker	3	5	42	14%	2.5
Tyquan Thornton	2	5	19	14%	-2.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2	4	10	11%	-3.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	5	5	9	14%	-3.1
Kayshon Boutte	1	2	8	6%	0.6
Ezekiel Elliott	2	2	6	6%	0.9
Mike Gesicki	0	2	0	6%	-1.5
Ty Montgomery	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
J.C. Jackson	6	0	0.0	1
Keion White	3	2	1.0	0
Myles Bryant	4	0	0.0	1
Anfernee Jennings	2	2	1.5	0
Davon Godchaux	2	2	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	2	1	1.0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	1	1.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	1	0.0	0
Kyle Dugger	2	0	0.0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tommy DeVito	17/25	191	1	0	6	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	12	46	3.8	-2.8
Tommy DeVito	5	6	1.2	-7.4
Matt Breida	2	6	3.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jalin Hyatt	5	6	109	0	25%	9.8
Wan'Dale Robinson	4	5	26	0	21%	-0.5
Darius Slayton	2	3	16	0	13%	0.3
Isaiah Hodgins	1	1	12	1	4%	3.3
Matt Breida	1	1	10	0	4%	-0.3
Daniel Bellinger	1	1	8	0	4%	-1.1
Saquon Barkley	1	3	6	0	13%	-2.2
Sterling Shepard	1	3	6	0	13%	-1.9
Parris Campbell	1	1	-2	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Xavier McKinney	4	6	0.0	1	2
Adoree' Jackson	5	3	0.0	0	1
Bobby Okereke	7	1	0.0	1	2
Micah McFadden	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jason Pinnock	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kayvon Thibodeaux	4	1	0.5	0	0
Jihad Ward	2	3	1.5	0	0
Deonte Banks	3	1	0.0	1	1
Isaiah Simmons	2	1	0.0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -4.5
Closing total: 36.5
NE moneyline: -218
NYG moneyline: +180

Patriots closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 17 — under by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NE 14 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Brian Daboll