For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:52 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q1 1:59, 3rd and 3, on Jessie Bates — 27.3 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 24–15. Biggest swing: Q1 1:59, Falcons +27.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:59 · 3rd and 3
Jessie Bates
Falcons
(1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
27.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Saints at 9 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 4 of 8 on third down, against Saints at 6 of 14 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jessie Bates's 92-yard touchdown with 1:59 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jessie Bates92-yd defence TD92-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+73–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Falcons ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 66 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Falcons’s 61 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Saints 5, Falcons 3.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's play-action rate, 45.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 6.4 points clear of the next team along.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
NO's sack or hit rate, 4.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
NO's blitz rate sent, 45.8%, is past their previous high of 31.8% in week 8 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
NO's pass rate over expected, −10.2 pts, is past their previous low of −7.6 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-10.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.6 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 66 snaps
Falcons-16.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 83%
Tendencies room →Saints51.9%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 53.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 52 early downs
Falcons36.5%leaned — ran early · −12.9 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 61%
Tendencies room →Saints10.0%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Falcons45.8%leaned — faked the run · +18.2 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.4%.
Falcons—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 51%
Tendencies room →Saints45.8%off script — sent pressure · +25.1 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+2.20× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Falcons30.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Saints4.2%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Falcons7.5%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 45.8%, 25.1 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 2.2 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
24/38, 304 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-1.3 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
13/21, 168 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-2.7 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Bijan Robinson banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 27.3 | +6.7 | 63% | 67% | 30% | 14% | 16 car, 91 yd, 1 TD · 3/6, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 18.4 | +4.5 | 47% | 53% | 24% | 37% | 7/9, 114 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 15.9 | +0.4 | 64% | 63% | 14% | 4% | 15 car, 69 yd · 4/5, 50 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.1 | +3.3 | 84% | 79% | 35% | 43% | 5/7, 91 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 10.9 | −5.5 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 24/38, 304 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 9.7 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/21, 168 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 7 car, 30 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 8.5 | −3.1 | 74% | 88% | 19% | 18% | 4/7, 45 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 8.1 | +0.5 | 35% | — | 5% | 10% | 7 car, 26 yd · 2/2, 55 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 6.4 | +1.3 | 29% | 21% | 0% | — | 10 car, 64 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 4.3 | −0.3 | 26% | 8% | 0% | — | 8 car, 43 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.0 | 50% | 54% | 10% | 14% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Lynn BowdenWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.7 | 64% | 50% | 5% | 8% | 2 car, 40 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.9 | 35% | 28% | 8% | 11% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB | 3.0 | −0.4 | 28% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 2/2, 4 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −6.7 | 26% | 33% | 14% | 6% | 2/5, 9 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.7 | 35% | 38% | 10% | 20% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| A.T. PerryWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.8 | 74% | 78% | 5% | 4% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 1.6 | +0.1 | 18% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.8 | 39% | 42% | 10% | 1% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 35% | 25% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 44% | 38% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 43% | 30% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | — | 11% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:59 · Saints · 3rd & 3 at ATL 12 · gained nothing · -11.45 EP · −33.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 95 yards from the ATL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Saints3
Falcons0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Saints3Falcons6Saints3Falcons7Saints6Falcons7Saints6Falcons13Saints6Falcons14Saints9Falcons14Saints12Falcons14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Saints12Falcons20Saints12Falcons21Saints15Falcons21Saints15Falcons24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/38 | 304 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Lynn Bowden | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | −6.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 | 24% | +7.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 | 5% | +4.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Maye | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 13/21 | 168 | 1 | 2 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_NO_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 39 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Derek Carr | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 14% | +2.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 19% | +1.2 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +1.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14% | −12.7 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| Lynn Bowden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.3 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Bryan Bresee | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 |
| 91 |
| 5.7 |
| 1 |
| +3.6 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Desmond Ridder | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 7 | 91 | 0 | 35% | +4.9 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 30% | −3.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 10% | +3.4 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 10% | −4.9 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Bates | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeff Okudah | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcco Hellams | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Landman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Flowers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
