2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Atlanta FalconsWinner

NO -2 upsetU 42 ✓DomeSaints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 24–15. Biggest swing: Q1 1:59, NO +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:59NO 3 — ATL 6NO ball · 3rd & 3NO 74%

(1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:59NO +27% win prob(1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:02NO +21% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard to ATL 9 for 10 yards (27-R.Grant, 3-J.Bates). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), touched at ATL 8, RECOVERED by ATL-94-A.Huggins at ATL 5.
Q3 · 1:27NO +16% win prob(1:27) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left intended for 15-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at NO 28. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 46 for 18 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 16-S.Miller).
Q2 · 5:41ATL +12% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 24 for 25 yards (3-J.Bates).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:14NO Field goal
(8:14) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 3 — ATL 0
Q1 · 1:59ATL Touchdown
(1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 3 — ATL 7
Q2 · 14:20NO Field goal
(14:20) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 6 — ATL 7
Q2 · 9:01ATL Touchdown
(9:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 6 — ATL 14
Q2 · 3:58NO Field goal
(3:58) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 9 — ATL 14
Q3 · 3:31NO Field goal
(3:31) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 12 — ATL 14
Q4 · 10:02ATL Touchdown
(10:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 7-B.Robinson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 12 — ATL 21
Q4 · 6:29NO Field goal
(6:29) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 15 — ATL 21
Q4 · 1:51ATL Field goal
(1:51) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: NO 15 — ATL 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Falcons
Offensive plays	66	61
Total yards	445 (edge)	397
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	6.5
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	47%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	6/14	4/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

24/38, 304 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.3 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

13/21, 168 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.7 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

16 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

15 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

7/9 for 114 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

5/7 for 91 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	5	3	1:58	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 35	4	5	0:54	Punt
3	NO	NO 16	10	77	3:58	Field goal +3
4	ATL	ATL 25	8	43	3:07	Turnover on downs
5	NO	NO 32	6	66	3:17	Defensive touchdown
6	NO	NO 25	8	21	2:30	Field goal +3
7	ATL	ATL 22	12	78	5:20	Touchdown +7
8	NO	NO 25	13	62	5:02	Field goal +3
9	ATL	ATL 25	13	60	3:28	Interception
10	NO	NO 4	1	0	0:26	End of half
11	ATL	ATL 25	8	31	3:20	Punt
12	NO	NO 8	14	67	8:13	Field goal +3
13	ATL	ATL 27	6	26	2:11	Interception
14	NO	NO 46	3	45	1:16	Fumble
15	ATL	ATL 5	10	95	5:03	Touchdown +7
16	NO	NO 25	9	64	3:33	Field goal +3
17	ATL	ATL 25	11	59	4:37	Field goal +3
18	NO	NO 25	10	40	1:21	Missed field goal
19	ATL	ATL 44	1	0	0:26	End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 95 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	24/38	304	0	1	1	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	15	69	4.6	0.9
Lynn Bowden	2	40	20.0	2.4
Taysom Hill	7	26	3.7	-6.7
Derek Carr	2	7	3.5	2.0
Jamaal Williams	2	6	3.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	7	9	114	24%	7.2
Taysom Hill	2	2	55	5%	4.5
Alvin Kamara	4	5	50	14%	2.6
Juwan Johnson	4	7	45	19%	1.2
Keith Kirkwood	2	3	20	8%	1.1
Rashid Shaheed	2	5	9	14%	-12.7
A.T. Perry	1	2	7	5%	-1.0
Jamaal Williams	2	2	4	5%	-1.5
Lynn Bowden	0	2	0	5%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Carl Granderson	3	6	0	0
Pete Werner	7	1	0	0
Marcus Maye	4	3	0	0
Malcolm Roach	1	5	0	1
Alontae Taylor	3	3	0	0
Demario Davis	4	2	0	0
Khalen Saunders	2	3	0	0
Paulson Adebo	4	0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	1	2	2
Bryan Bresee	0	3	0	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	13/21	168	1	2	0	-2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bijan Robinson	16	91	5.7	1	3.6
Tyler Allgeier	10	64	6.4	0	2.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	8	43	5.4	0	1.4
Desmond Ridder	7	30	4.3	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	5	7	91	0	35%	4.9
Bijan Robinson	3	6	32	1	30%	-3.5
Kyle Pitts	2	2	22	0	10%	3.4
Van Jefferson	1	2	13	0	10%	-4.9
Keith Smith	1	1	6	0	5%	0.1
Scott Miller	1	2	4	0	10%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jessie Bates	7	5	1	1
Jeff Okudah	7	1	0	0
DeMarcco Hellams	4	3	0	0
Dee Alford	4	2	0	1
Kaden Elliss	2	2	0	1
Nate Landman	3	1	0	0
Richie Grant	2	1	0	1
Tre Flowers	1	1	0	0
David Onyemata	2	0	0	0
KhaDarel Hodge	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2
Closing total: 42
NO moneyline: -130
ATL moneyline: +110

Saints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 39 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NO 14 days · ATL 14 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Arthur Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.