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2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
15
24
Atlanta Falcons 24–15. Biggest swing: Q1 1:59, NO +27% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(8:14) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 3 — ATL 0(1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 3 — ATL 7(14:20) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 6 — ATL 7(9:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 6 — ATL 14(3:58) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 9 — ATL 14(3:31) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 12 — ATL 14(10:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 7-B.Robinson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 12 — ATL 21(6:29) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 15 — ATL 21(1:51) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: NO 15 — ATL 24Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Saints | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 61 |
| Total yards | 445 (edge) | 397 |
| Yards per play | 6.7 (edge) | 6.5 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.04 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Success rate | 47% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 61% | 39% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 | 0.04 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 | 0.06 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/14 | 4/8 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 | 13 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 | 24 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
24/38, 304 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-1.3 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
13/21, 168 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-2.7 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:58 | Punt | |
| 2 | ATL | ATL 35 | 4 | 5 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 3 | NO | NO 16 | 10 | 77 | 3:58 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | ATL | ATL 25 | 8 | 43 | 3:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | NO | NO 32 | 6 | 66 | 3:17 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 6 | NO | NO 25 | 8 | 21 | 2:30 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | ATL | ATL 22 | 12 | 78 | 5:20 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | NO | NO 25 | 13 | 62 | 5:02 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | ATL | ATL 25 | 13 | 60 | 3:28 | Interception | |
| 10 | NO | NO 4 | 1 | 0 | 0:26 | End of half | |
| 11 | ATL | ATL 25 | 8 | 31 | 3:20 | Punt | |
| 12 | NO | NO 8 | 14 | 67 | 8:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | ATL | ATL 27 | 6 | 26 | 2:11 | Interception | |
| 14 | NO | NO 46 | 3 | 45 | 1:16 | Fumble | |
| 15 | ATL | ATL 5 | 10 | 95 | 5:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | NO | NO 25 | 9 | 64 | 3:33 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | ATL | ATL 25 | 11 | 59 | 4:37 | Field goal +3 | |
| 18 | NO | NO 25 | 10 | 40 | 1:21 | Missed field goal | |
| 19 | ATL | ATL 44 | 1 | 0 | 0:26 | End of game |
8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 95 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/38 | 304 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Lynn Bowden | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | -6.7 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 | 24% | 7.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 | 5% | 4.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Maye | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 13/21 | 168 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 39 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 19% | 1.2 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | 1.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14% | -12.7 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | -1.0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | -1.5 |
| Lynn Bowden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -1.3 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Bryan Bresee | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3.6 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Desmond Ridder | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 7 | 91 | 0 | 35% | 4.9 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 30% | -3.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 10% | 3.4 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 10% | -4.9 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | 0.1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10% | -2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Bates | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeff Okudah | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcco Hellams | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Landman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Flowers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
