2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

PIT -2 ✓U 36 ✓Steelers closed -2 and covered, winning by 6.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16–10. Biggest swing: Q1 4:45, PIT +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:45PIT 0 — CIN 0PIT ball · 3rd & 2PIT 67%

(4:45) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to CIN 13 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader, 95-Z.Carter). FUMBLES (95-Z.Carter), touched at CIN 14, RECOVERED by CIN-20-D.Turner at CIN 11. 20-D.Turner to CIN 39 for 28 yards (83-Co.Heywar

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:45PIT +16% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to CIN 13 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader, 95-Z.Carter). FUMBLES (95-Z.Carter), touched at CIN 14, RECOVERED by CIN-20-D.Turner at CIN 11. 20-D.Turner to CIN 39 for 28 yards (83-Co.Heyward).
Q3 · 9:30PIT +13% win prob(9:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 17-T.Thompson at PIT 15. 17-T.Thompson pushed ob at PIT 21 for 6 yards (1-J.Chase).
Q4 · 10:01CIN +12% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left to 14-G.Pickens pushed ob at CIN 20 for 43 yards (21-M.Hilton).
Q2 · 14:21CIN +11% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson to CIN 23 for 39 yards (20-D.Turner).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 12:44PIT Field goal
(12:44) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — CIN 0
Q2 · 10:36CIN Touchdown
(10:36) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 89-D.Sample for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 3 — CIN 7
Q3 · 1:38PIT Touchdown
(1:38) 22-N.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 10 — CIN 7
Q4 · 8:08PIT Field goal
(8:08) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 13 — CIN 7
Q4 · 2:55PIT Field goal
(2:55) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 16 — CIN 7
Q4 · 2:09CIN Field goal
(2:09) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: PIT 16 — CIN 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bengals
Offensive plays	65	40
Total yards	424 (edge)	223
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	46% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	57%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.47
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

24/33, 278 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

19/26, 227 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.7 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

15 att, 99 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

13 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-8.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

9/11 for 120 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

4/6 for 81 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	6	32	2:51	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 20	4	-3	1:38	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 29	10	51	5:57	Fumble
4	CIN	CIN 39	5	22	3:11	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 11	8	66	3:44	Field goal +3
6	CIN	CIN 47	6	53	2:09	Touchdown +7
7	PIT	PIT 25	6	16	2:14	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 20	4	-4	1:51	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 45	6	13	3:09	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 11	6	31	1:38	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 20	7	43	1:14	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 8	1	0	0:24	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 25	11	57	5:36	Interception
14	PIT	PIT 21	15	79	7:50	Touchdown +7
15	CIN	CIN 25	6	22	3:24	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 22	10	72	5:07	Field goal +3
17	CIN	CIN 25	5	-2	2:05	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 33	7	52	3:07	Field goal +3
19	CIN	CIN 25	6	47	0:47	Field goal +3
20	PIT	CIN 39	4	0	2:04	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	24/33	278	0	0	2	11.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	15	99	6.6	1	2.3
Jaylen Warren	13	49	3.8	0	-8.9
Kenny Pickett	5	5	1.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Pat Freiermuth	9	11	120	34%	10.8
George Pickens	3	5	58	16%	2.9
Diontae Johnson	4	8	50	25%	-0.1
Jaylen Warren	3	3	13	9%	0.4
Connor Heyward	2	2	11	6%	-0.8
Allen Robinson	1	1	11	3%	0.7
Darnell Washington	1	1	10	3%	0.4
Calvin Austin	1	1	5	3%	1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Elandon Roberts	4	2	0.0	0	0
Mykal Walker	4	1	0.0	0	0
Trenton Thompson	5	0	0.0	1	1
Damontae Kazee	2	3	0.0	0	1
T.J. Watt	5	0	2.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	3	1	1.0	0	0
Keeanu Benton	1	1	0.0	0	0
Joey Porter	1	1	0.0	0	1
Connor Heyward	1	0	0.0	0	0
Tariq Carpenter	1	0	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jake Browning	19/26	227	1	1	4	-2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	8	16	2.0	0	-3.7
Jake Browning	3	9	3.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	4	6	81	0	24%	0.6
Joe Mixon	2	2	44	0	8%	1.9
Trenton Irwin	1	1	25	0	4%	2.6
Tyler Boyd	3	5	23	0	20%	-2.0
Tanner Hudson	4	5	18	0	20%	0.1
Andrei Iosivas	1	2	16	0	8%	2.1
Drew Sample	1	1	11	1	4%	2.1
Irv Smith	2	2	8	0	8%	-1.4
Mitchell Wilcox	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Logan Wilson	5	4	0.0	0
Dax Hill	5	2	0.0	1
Jordan Battle	2	5	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	7	0	0.0	0
Germaine Pratt	3	3	0.0	0
D.J. Turner	4	1	0.0	2
Sam Hubbard	2	2	0.0	0
Nick Scott	1	2	0.0	0
Myles Murphy	1	2	1.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -2
Closing total: 36
PIT moneyline: -135
CIN moneyline: +114

Steelers closed -2 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 36; the game landed 26 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: PIT 7 days · CIN 10 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.