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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q1 4:45, 3rd and 2, on Jaylen Warren — 16.5 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:45 · 3rd and 2
Jaylen Warren
Bengals
(4:45) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to CIN 13 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader, 95-Z.Carter). FUMBLES (95-Z.Carter), touched at CIN 14, RECOVERED by CIN-20-D.Turner at CIN 11. 20-D.Turner to CIN 39 for 28 yards (83-Co.Heyward).
Pittsburgh Steelers 16–10. Biggest swing: Q1 4:45, Bengals +16.5% win probability on one snap.
16.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Steelers won this one — 8 of 16 on third down, against Bengals at 2 of 10 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 4 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(4:45) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to CIN 13 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader, 95-Z.Carter). FUMBLES (95-Z.Carter), touched at CIN 14, RECOVERED by CIN-20-D.Turner at CIN 11. 20-D.Turner to CIN 39 for 28 yards (83-Co.Heywar
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Najee Harris's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 1:38 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 65 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Bengals’s 40 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Bengals 2.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's blitz rate sent, 9.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-4.2 ptsright on their number · +1.9 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 65 snaps
Bengals12.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 5.7 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 40 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 90%
Tendencies room →Steelers46.9%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 49 early downs
Bengals73.3%leaned — passed early · +10.2 vs their 63.1%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 30 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 37%
Tendencies room →Steelers24.3%leaned — faked the run · +8.3 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bengals18.8%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Steelers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −28.2 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers9.4%leaned — sat back · −19.2 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bengals27.0%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 24.6%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 35%
Tendencies room →Steelers15.6%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bengals10.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
PIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.4%, 19.2 points below their season mean of 28.6% and 1.7 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
24/33, 278 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
11.8 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
19/26, 227 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.7 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
9/11 for 120 yds, 0 TD
34% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Najee Harris banked 7.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Alpha Receiver | 21.0 | +3.8 | 59% | 70% | 34% | 38% | 9/11, 120 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 15.9 | +7.6 | 54% | 43% | 0% | — | 15 car, 99 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Featured Receiver | 12.1 | +3.1 | 88% | 88% | 24% | 45% | 4/6, 81 yd |
| Jake BrowningQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | +3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/26, 227 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 9 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 11.6 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/33, 278 yd · 5 car, 5 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.0 | −5.4 | 73% | 81% | 25% | 30% | 4/8, 50 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +1.9 | 75% | 78% | 16% | 29% | 3/5, 58 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +6.1 | 44% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.0 | +1.3 | 65% | 53% | 8% | 0% | 8 car, 16 yd · 2/2, 44 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −3.8 | 48% | 54% | 9% | 0% | 13 car, 49 yd · 3/3, 13 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −0.8 | 30% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 4/5, 18 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Featured Receiver | 5.3 | −1.3 | 63% | 66% | 20% | 18% | 3/5, 23 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +2.0 | 72% | 72% | 4% | 8% | 1/1, 25 yd |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.5 | 34% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Irv SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +0.2 | 37% | 38% | 8% | 2% | 2/2, 8 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | 0.0 | 33% | 28% | 8% | 20% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.5 | 63% | 51% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.6 | 52% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.3 | 25% | 32% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.1 | 28% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | 19% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chase BrownRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 11% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:30) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to PIT 40, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 45 for 5 yards (80-A.Iosivas).
Q2 6:30 · Bengals · 4th & 14 at CIN 16 · gained nothing · +4.23 EP · −32.1% win probability
140 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 140 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 79 yards from the PIT 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers3
Bengals0Steelers3Bengals6Steelers3Bengals7How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Steelers9Bengals7Steelers10Bengals7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers13Bengals7How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Steelers16Bengals7Steelers16Bengals10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 24/33 | 278 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 15 | 99 | 6.6 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 | −8.9 |
| Kenny Pickett | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 9 | 11 | 120 | 0 | 34% | +10.8 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 16% | +2.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykal Walker | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Thompson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Damontae Kazee |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 19/26 | 227 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_PIT_CIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -2 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 36; the game landed 26 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 25% | −0.1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| T.J. Watt | 5 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Carpenter | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
| 16 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −3.7 |
| Jake Browning | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 24% | +0.6 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8% | +1.9 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 4% | +2.6 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 20% | −2.0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 20% | +0.1 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +2.1 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 4% | +2.1 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dax Hill | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Battle | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Turner | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Murphy | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
