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San Francisco 49ers 31 at Seattle Seahawks 13. Final.
49ers -7 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 12
San Francisco 49ers 31, Seahawks 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:47, 1st and 10, on Deebo Samuel — 4.9 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:47 · 1st and 10
Deebo Samuel
49ers
(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
San Francisco 49ers 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:47, 49ers +4.9% win probability on one snap.
4.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Geno Smith49ersQ1 4:25(4:25) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 1 for -9 yards (31-T.Gipson).
4.0pts
Ambry Thomas49ersQ2 12:40(12:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 20-A.Thomas [99-J.Kinlaw] at SEA 44. 20-A.Thomas to SEA 42 for 2 yards (16-T.Lockett).
4.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
49ers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.21 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.26 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on 49ers157 of 166 plays carry both curves
(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
Swing −4.9 for SeahawksExpected points −1.56 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 22 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:47SEA +5% win prob(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
2nd · 12:40SF +4% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 20-A.Thomas [99-J.Kinlaw] at SEA 44. 20-A.Thomas to SEA 42 for 2 yards (16-T.Lockett).
1st · 4:25SF +4% win prob(4:25) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 1 for -9 yards (31-T.Gipson).
1st · 10:01SEA +4% win prob4-J.Moody kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to SEA 1. 1-D.Eskridge to SF 33 for 66 yards (28-D.Luter).
1st · 12:41SEA +4% win prob(12:41) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SEA 16 for 27 yards (21-D.Witherspoon, 20-J.Love).
1st · 5:07SF +3% win prob(5:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.
1st · 5:46
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deebo Samuel's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:04 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:04Deebo Samuel·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st9:11Jason Myers·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+37–3
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1149ers: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.26Seahawks: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.0049ers: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.30Seahawks: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.2349ers: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.21Seahawks: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 63 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 54 at 65%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Seahawks 1.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's sack or hit rate, 25.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 11.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
SF's play-action rate, 39.4%, is past their previous high of 34.6% in week 5 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 11.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 36.6% in week 11 against 17.1% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks18.2%
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteSF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.4%, 19.1 points above their season mean of 20.3% and 2.2 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%66 snaps
55Jon FelicianoC · Every snap100%66 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
85George KittleTE · Every snap100%66 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time95%63 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time89%59 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McCaffrey up+8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:41) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SEA 16 for 27 yards (21-D.Witherspoon, 20-J.Love).
Q1 12:41 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SEA 43 · gained 27 · +1.92 EP · +8.0% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 78 yards from the SEA 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
597
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3570%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23-0.0743%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.0673%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2742%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0627%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.9620%
49ers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
49ers6Seahawks0
49ers7Seahawks0
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Seahawks 2
49ers7Seahawks3
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 32
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Seahawks 30
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Seahawks 10
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Seahawks 17
2nd quarter51 plays
49ers13Seahawks3
49ers14Seahawks3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 1
Intercepted3 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 35
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Seahawks 40
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 2 to the Seahawks 11
49ers20Seahawks3
49ers21Seahawks3
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Seahawks 8
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 32
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 27
49ers24Seahawks3
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 14
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the 49ers 35
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 35
49ers24Seahawks9
Touchdown2 plays
49ers24Seahawks10
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 29
49ers24Seahawks13
Field goal15 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the 49ers 7
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 44
4th quarter35 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 31
49ers30Seahawks13
49ers31Seahawks13
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Seahawks 28
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the 49ers 21
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Seahawks 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
