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2023 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 23, 2023 · Lumen Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

31

Seattle Seahawks

13

SF -7 ✓O 43.5 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:47, SEA +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEASF
Q1 · 7:47SF 7SEA 3SF ball · 1st & 10SF 82%

(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 7:47SEA +5% win prob(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
  2. Q2 · 12:40SF +4% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 20-A.Thomas [99-J.Kinlaw] at SEA 44. 20-A.Thomas to SEA 42 for 2 yards (16-T.Lockett).
  3. Q1 · 4:25SF +4% win prob(4:25) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 1 for -9 yards (31-T.Gipson).
  4. Q1 · 10:01SEA +4% win prob4-J.Moody kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to SEA 1. 1-D.Eskridge to SF 33 for 66 yards (28-D.Luter).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:04SF Touchdown

    (10:04) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7SEA 0
  2. Q1 · 9:11SEA Field goal

    (9:11) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SF 7SEA 3
  3. Q2 · 13:15SF Touchdown

    (13:15) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14SEA 3
  4. Q2 · 5:19SF Touchdown

    (5:19) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21SEA 3
  5. Q2 · 0:43SF Field goal

    (:43) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 24SEA 3
  6. Q3 · 11:30SEA Touchdown

    (11:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 56-J.Brooks at SF 12. 56-J.Brooks for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 24SEA 10
  7. Q3 · 3:16SEA Field goal

    (3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SF 24SEA 13
  8. Q4 · 7:59SF Touchdown

    (7:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 31SEA 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersSeahawks
Offensive plays6354
Total yards379 (edge)220
Yards per play6.0 (edge)4.1
Expected points added / play0.11 (edge)-0.26
Success rate48% (edge)44%
Dropback rate52%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.00 (edge)-0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.23 (edge)-0.21
Third downs5/11 (edge)3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)14
Sacks taken1 (edge)6
Turnovers11

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

21/30, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.7 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

18/27, 180 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.9 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

19 att, 114 yds, 2 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

14 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

7/9 for 79 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

2/4 for 50 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 2911714:59Touchdown +7
2SEASF 33510:54Field goal +3
3SFSF 229484:06Punt
4SEASEA 74-11:59Punt
5SFSEA 4510404:51Touchdown +7
6SEASEA 253100:36Interception
7SFSEA 424-22:06Punt
8SEASEA 2491:19Punt
9SFSF 429583:59Touchdown +7
10SEASEA 285-42:02Punt
11SFSF 25421:22Punt
12SFSEA 22481:08Field goal +3
13SEASEA 246410:39Missed field goal
14SEASEA 259333:26Punt
15SFSF 4200:11Defensive touchdown
16SFSF 25591:42Punt
17SEASEA 1014786:28Field goal +3
18SFSF 258383:21Punt
19SEASEA 136123:30Punt
20SFSF 367643:31Touchdown +7
21SEASEA 3712413:37Turnover on downs
22SFSF 236434:14End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy21/302091110.7
Deebo Samuel0/10000-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey191146.024.8
Elijah Mitchell7395.601.0
Deebo Samuel4153.811.0
Brock Purdy310.30-3.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel7979030%4.6
Brandon Aiyuk2450113%4.1
Christian McCaffrey5625020%-7.4
Ray-Ray McCloud112303%1.8
George Kittle3519017%0.0
Charlie Woerner11903%0.7
Jauan Jennings12707%0.6
Kyle Juszczyk01003%-0.9
Elijah Mitchell11-303%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw430.000
Javon Hargrave251.500
Fred Warner330.000
Deommodore Lenoir330.000
Tashaun Gipson411.000
Arik Armstead231.000
Charvarius Ward320.003
Ji'Ayir Brown130.000
Oren Burks310.000
Nick Bosa122.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith18/27180016-11.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zach Charbonnet14473.40-3.7
Geno Smith4215.300.2
DeeJay Dallas2105.000.6
D'Wayne Eskridge11010.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba2341011%3.1
DK Metcalf3932033%-4.1
Tyler Lockett3530019%-4.1
Noah Fant222507%2.8
Will Dissly112104%2.0
Zach Charbonnet4411015%-0.5
Colby Parkinson11904%0.8
Jake Bobo11604%-0.1
DeeJay Dallas11504%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks650.011
Julian Love640.000
Bobby Wagner440.000
Quandre Diggs420.001
Jamal Adams330.000
Leonard Williams220.000
Jarran Reed130.000
Derick Hall120.000
Devon Witherspoon210.001
Michael Jackson110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -7
Closing total
43.5
SF moneyline
-355
SEA moneyline
+280

49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
39°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
SF 4 days · SEA 4 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.