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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 23, 2023 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q1 7:47, 1st and 10, on Deebo Samuel — 4.9 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:47, 49ers +4.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:47 · 1st and 10
Deebo Samuel
49ers
(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
4.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
49ers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.21 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.26 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Deebo Samuel's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:04 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categorySeahawks
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 63 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 54 at 65%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Seahawks 1.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's sack or hit rate, 25.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
SF's play-action rate, 39.4%, is past their previous high of 34.6% in week 5 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 36.6% in week 11 against 17.1% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-2.4 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 63 snaps
Seahawks-1.5 ptsright on their number · −1.6 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 78%
Tendencies room →49ers46.2%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 52 early downs
Seahawks61.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 45%
Tendencies room →49ers39.4%off script — faked the run · +19.1 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+2.19× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Seahawks17.1%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 110%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 25.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 51%
Tendencies room →49ers25.7%right on their number · +4.8 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks27.3%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →49ers25.7%leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks18.2%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
SF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.4%, 19.1 points above their season mean of 20.3% and 2.2 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
21/30, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.7 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
18/27, 180 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.9 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Christian McCaffrey banked 5.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 30.9 | +5.0 | 77% | 82% | 20% | 9% | 19 car, 114 yd, 2 TD · 5/6, 25 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | +1.7 | 76% | 88% | 30% | 27% | 0/1, 0 yd · 4 car, 15 yd, 1 TD · 7/9, 79 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.0 | +4.2 | 89% | 97% | 13% | 25% | 2/4, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 10.5 | −4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 209 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 1 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.8 | −3.5 | 88% | 86% | 15% | 0% | 14 car, 47 yd · 4/4, 11 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −5.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/27, 180 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 21 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.2 | −7.9 | 86% | 89% | 33% | 56% | 3/9, 32 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +0.5 | 75% | 86% | 11% | 12% | 2/3, 41 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 6.0 | −1.6 | 95% | 97% | 19% | 20% | 3/5, 30 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −2.6 | 100% | 100% | 17% | 21% | 3/5, 19 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 4.6 | −0.3 | 26% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 39 yd · 1/1, -3 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.8 | 59% | 63% | 7% | 8% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +1.4 | 12% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 23 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.5 | 27% | 20% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 2.5 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 36% | 31% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.9 | 27% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.0 | 36% | 48% | 7% | 14% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | 21% | 14% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | 1.0 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 0.0 | −1.0 | 42% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:41) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SEA 16 for 27 yards (21-D.Witherspoon, 20-J.Love).
Q1 12:41 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SEA 43 · gained 27 · +1.92 EP · +8.0% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 78 yards from the SEA 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers6
Seahawks049ers7Seahawks049ers7Seahawks349ers13Seahawks349ers14Seahawks349ers20Seahawks349ers21Seahawks349ers24Seahawks349ers24Seahawks949ers24Seahawks1049ers24Seahawks1349ers30Seahawks1349ers31Seahawks13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/30 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 114 | 6.0 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 30% | +4.6 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 50 | 1 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/27 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 6 | −11.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_SF_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −3.3 |
| +4.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 20% | −7.4 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 17% | +0.0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.2 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 11% | +3.1 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 33% | −4.1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 19% | −4.1 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 7% | +2.8 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | +2.0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 15% | −0.5 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Julian Love | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Adams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derick Hall | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
