2023 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 23, 2023 · Lumen Field
San Francisco 49ersWinner
31
Seattle Seahawks
13
San Francisco 49ers 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:47, SEA +5% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 7:47SEA +5% win prob(7:47) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel to SEA 30 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
- Q2 · 12:40SF +4% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 20-A.Thomas [99-J.Kinlaw] at SEA 44. 20-A.Thomas to SEA 42 for 2 yards (16-T.Lockett).
- Q1 · 4:25SF +4% win prob(4:25) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 1 for -9 yards (31-T.Gipson).
- Q1 · 10:01SEA +4% win prob4-J.Moody kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to SEA 1. 1-D.Eskridge to SF 33 for 66 yards (28-D.Luter).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 10:04SF Touchdown
(10:04) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — SEA 0 - Q1 · 9:11SEA Field goal
(9:11) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SF 7 — SEA 3 - Q2 · 13:15SF Touchdown
(13:15) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — SEA 3 - Q2 · 5:19SF Touchdown
(5:19) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 21 — SEA 3 - Q2 · 0:43SF Field goal
(:43) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 24 — SEA 3 - Q3 · 11:30SEA Touchdown
(11:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 56-J.Brooks at SF 12. 56-J.Brooks for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 24 — SEA 10 - Q3 · 3:16SEA Field goal
(3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SF 24 — SEA 13 - Q4 · 7:59SF Touchdown
(7:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 31 — SEA 13
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | 49ers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 54 |
| Total yards | 379 (edge) | 220 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 (edge) | 4.1 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.11 (edge) | -0.26 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 44% |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.00 (edge) | -0.30 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.23 (edge) | -0.21 |
| Third downs | 5/11 (edge) | 3/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 10 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 6 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · SF
21/30, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.7 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
18/27, 180 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.9 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | SF 29 | 11 | 71 | 4:59 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | SEA | SF 33 | 5 | 1 | 0:54 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | SF | SF 22 | 9 | 48 | 4:06 | Punt | |
| 4 | SEA | SEA 7 | 4 | -1 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 5 | SF | SEA 45 | 10 | 40 | 4:51 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | SEA | SEA 25 | 3 | 10 | 0:36 | Interception | |
| 7 | SF | SEA 42 | 4 | -2 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 8 | SEA | SEA 2 | 4 | 9 | 1:19 | Punt | |
| 9 | SF | SF 42 | 9 | 58 | 3:59 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | SEA | SEA 28 | 5 | -4 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 11 | SF | SF 25 | 4 | 2 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 12 | SF | SEA 22 | 4 | 8 | 1:08 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | SEA | SEA 24 | 6 | 41 | 0:39 | Missed field goal | |
| 14 | SEA | SEA 25 | 9 | 33 | 3:26 | Punt | |
| 15 | SF | SF 4 | 2 | 0 | 0:11 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 16 | SF | SF 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 17 | SEA | SEA 10 | 14 | 78 | 6:28 | Field goal +3 | |
| 18 | SF | SF 25 | 8 | 38 | 3:21 | Punt | |
| 19 | SEA | SEA 13 | 6 | 12 | 3:30 | Punt | |
| 20 | SF | SF 36 | 7 | 64 | 3:31 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | SEA | SEA 37 | 12 | 41 | 3:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | SF | SF 23 | 6 | 43 | 4:14 | End of game |
7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
Box score
San Francisco 49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/30 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 114 | 6.0 | 2 | 4.8 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | -3.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 30% | 4.6 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 50 | 1 | 13% | 4.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 20% | -7.4 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3% | 1.8 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 17% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | 0.6 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.9 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | -1.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Seattle Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/27 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 | -3.7 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | 0.2 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 11% | 3.1 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 33% | -4.1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 19% | -4.1 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 7% | 2.8 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | 2.0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 15% | -0.5 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | 0.8 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | -0.1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | -0.3 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Julian Love | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Adams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derick Hall | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- SF -7
- Closing total
- 43.5
- SF moneyline
- -355
- SEA moneyline
- +280
49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lumen Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- 39°F, wind 4 mph
- Referee
- Tra Blake
- Rest
- SF 4 days · SEA 4 days
- Coaches
- Kyle Shanahan vs Pete Carroll
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.