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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:52 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q4 9:11, 4th and 1, on Mo Alie-Cox — 11.3 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 9:11, Colts +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:11 · 4th and 1
Mo Alie-Cox
Colts
(9:11) 73-B.Freeland reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to TB 19 for 30 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-8-S.Dennis was injured during the play.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 13 on third down, against Colts at 2 of 11 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Colts won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.08 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
(9:11) 73-B.Freeland reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to TB 19 for 30 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-8-S.Dennis was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jonathan Taylor's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 0:16 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryColts
Colts ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 56 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Colts’s 69 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Colts 5.
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 83.3% in week 1 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.8 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-1.3 ptsright on their number · +0.5 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 56 snaps
Colts6.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.9 vs their -4.2 pts, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 86%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers59.5%right on their number · +5.2 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 42 early downs
Colts57.4%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 54%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers21.1%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Colts8.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.4 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.6%.
Colts100.0%off script — went for it · +65.9 vs their 34.1%, and they swing ±30.8 week to week (+2.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 77%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers42.2%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Colts13.2%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers6.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Colts18.4%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
IND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 65.9 points above their season mean of 34.1% and 2.1 times their own 30.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
24/41, 251 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-0.1 expected points added · -12.5% completion over expected
Passing · TB
20/30, 199 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-7.5 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
10/13 for 107 yds, 0 TD
33% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jonathan Taylor banked 6.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.0 | +3.8 | 92% | 95% | 30% | 59% | 6/9, 70 yd, 2 TD |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Committee Back | 21.1 | +6.4 | 58% | 51% | 0% | — | 15 car, 91 yd, 2 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.7 | −0.7 | 96% | 93% | 33% | 39% | 10/13, 107 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | −6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/41, 251 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −6.7 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 199 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 14 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.0 | +2.0 | 87% | 84% | 7% | 0% | 15 car, 100 yd · 2/2, 10 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −12.5 | 68% | 76% | 33% | 21% | 5/13, 43 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 9.0 | +0.1 | 41% | 44% | 8% | 0% | 8 car, 55 yd · 2/3, 15 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +2.9 | 100% | 97% | 13% | 4% | 4/4, 45 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 7.5 | −5.3 | 83% | 87% | 23% | 20% | 3/7, 45 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | −4.8 | 95% | 93% | 15% | 23% | 4/6, 27 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −2.0 | 68% | 66% | 17% | 14% | 4/5, 17 yd |
| Will MalloryTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −0.1 | 37% | 44% | 8% | 9% | 2/3, 29 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +1.5 | 47% | 29% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 30 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.3 | 20% | 26% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 1.1 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 42% | 40% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kyle TraskQB | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 18% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at IND 25 for 19 yards (39-D.Baker).
Q4 14:06 · Buccaneers · 4th & 10 at IND 44 · gained 19 · +4.60 EP · +14.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers3
Colts0Buccaneers3Colts3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers3Colts9Buccaneers3Colts10Buccaneers3Colts16Buccaneers3Colts17Buccaneers9Colts17Buccaneers10Colts17Buccaneers10Colts20How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers16Colts20Buccaneers17Colts20How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers17Colts26Buccaneers17Colts27Buccaneers20Colts27How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/30 | 199 | 2 | 1 | 6 | −7.5 |
| Kyle Trask | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 15 | 100 | 6.7 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Chase Edmonds |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 30% | +1.3 |
| Chris Godwin | 3 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 23% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Davis | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Antoine Winfield | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zyon McCollum | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 24/41 | 251 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_TB_IND
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 45; the game landed 47 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 11 |
| 11.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 13% | +2.7 |
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 17% | −1.5 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Tryon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Delaney | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 |
| 91 |
| 6.1 |
| 2 |
| +3.3 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 | −2.3 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 13 | 107 | 0 | 33% | +8.0 |
| Josh Downs | 5 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 33% | −8.9 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 3% | +3.8 |
| Will Mallory | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 8% | +2.3 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 15% | −1.5 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaylon Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Baker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Land | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
