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2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

20

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

27

IND -2.5 ✓O 45 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 9:11, IND +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 9:11TB 17 — IND 20IND ball · 4th & 1IND 74%

(9:11) 73-B.Freeland reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to TB 19 for 30 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-8-S.Dennis was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 9:11IND +11% win prob(9:11) 73-B.Freeland reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to TB 19 for 30 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-8-S.Dennis was injured during the play.
  2. Q1 · 1:56TB +11% win prob(1:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at 50. 48-R.Harrison ran ob at TB 41 for 9 yards (22-C.Edmonds).
  3. Q1 · 9:57IND +10% win prob(9:57) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to IND 1 for 19 yards (40-J.Jones).
  4. Q4 · 14:06IND +10% win prob(14:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at IND 25 for 19 yards (39-D.Baker).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:31TB Field goal

    (7:31) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — IND 0
  2. Q1 · 3:05IND Field goal

    (3:05) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — IND 3
  3. Q1 · 0:16IND Touchdown

    (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 3 — IND 10
  4. Q2 · 9:42IND Touchdown

    (9:42) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 3 — IND 17
  5. Q2 · 5:12TB Touchdown

    (5:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-93-E.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10 — IND 17
  6. Q3 · 10:05IND Field goal

    (10:05) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — IND 20
  7. Q4 · 12:55TB Touchdown

    (12:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — IND 20
  8. Q4 · 7:33IND Touchdown

    (7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — IND 27
  9. Q4 · 4:13TB Field goal

    (4:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 20 — IND 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersColts
Offensive plays5669
Total yards298395 (edge)
Yards per play5.35.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.080.08 (edge)
Success rate46%49% (edge)
Dropback rate68%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.130.18 (edge)
Third downs5/13 (edge)2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)88
First downs gained on snaps1525 (edge)
Sacks taken62 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

24/41, 251 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-0.1 expected points added · -12.5% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

20/30, 199 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-7.5 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

15 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

15 att, 91 yds, 2 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

10/13 for 107 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/9 for 70 yds, 2 TD

30% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 2516767:32Field goal +3
2INDIND 2511424:27Field goal +3
3TBTB 25361:12Interception
4INDTB 415411:38Touchdown +7
5TBTB 255-111:20Punt
6INDIND 3811624:15Touchdown +7
7TBTB 255102:14Punt
8INDIND 8360:49Interception
9TBIND 164161:25Touchdown +7
10INDIND 25500:28Punt
11TBTB 226302:56Punt
12INDIND 208401:44Missed field goal
13INDIND 2512574:59Field goal +3
14TBTB 258343:52Punt
15INDIND 209404:23Turnover on downs
16TBTB 4010603:56Touchdown +7
17INDIND 2511855:20Touchdown +7
18TBTB 2510693:20Field goal +3
19INDIND 25591:49Punt
20TBTB 35380:52Fumble
21INDTB 383131:29End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield20/30199216-7.5
Kyle Trask0/10000-1.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White151006.703.4
Baker Mayfield3144.700.7
Chase Edmonds11111.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans6970230%1.3
Chris Godwin3745023%0.1
Cade Otton4445013%2.7
Trey Palmer4517017%-1.5
Payne Durham111203%1.7
Rachaad White221007%-0.8
Chase Edmonds01003%-0.5
David Moore01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Carlton Davis820.012
Antoine Winfield620.001
Zyon McCollum530.000
Devin White330.000
SirVocea Dennis410.001
Christian Izien220.000
Calijah Kancey211.001
Joe Tryon111.000
Shaquil Barrett110.000
Dee Delaney200.001

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew24/41251012-0.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor15916.123.3
Zack Moss8556.901.2
Gardner Minshew362.01-2.3
Isaiah McKenzie133.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman1013107033%8.0
Josh Downs51343033%-8.9
Mo Alie-Cox113003%3.8
Will Mallory232908%2.3
Alec Pierce4627015%-1.5
Zack Moss231508%-0.2
Kylen Granson01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin340.000
E.J. Speed510.000
Julian Blackmon500.002
Jaylon Jones410.000
Kenny Moore220.000
Samson Ebukam312.000
DeForest Buckner310.001
Kwity Paye111.000
Darrell Baker110.000
Isaiah Land111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -2.5
Closing total
45
TB moneyline
+130
IND moneyline
-155

Colts closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 45; the game landed 47 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
TB 7 days · IND 14 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Shane Steichen