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2023 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 26, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium
20
27
Indianapolis Colts 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 9:11, IND +11% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(9:11) 73-B.Freeland reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to TB 19 for 30 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-8-S.Dennis was injured during the play.
How the points landed
(7:31) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 3 — IND 0(3:05) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: TB 3 — IND 3(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 3 — IND 10(9:42) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 3 — IND 17(5:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-93-E.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — IND 17(10:05) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: TB 10 — IND 20(12:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — IND 20(7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — IND 27(4:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 20 — IND 27Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Buccaneers | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 56 | 69 |
| Total yards | 298 | 395 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.3 | 5.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.08 | 0.08 (edge) |
| Success rate | 46% | 49% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 68% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 | 0.18 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/13 (edge) | 2/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 | 8 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 25 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
24/41, 251 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-0.1 expected points added · -12.5% completion over expected
Passing · TB
20/30, 199 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-7.5 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
10/13 for 107 yds, 0 TD
33% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 25 | 16 | 76 | 7:32 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | IND | IND 25 | 11 | 42 | 4:27 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | TB | TB 25 | 3 | 6 | 1:12 | Interception | |
| 4 | IND | TB 41 | 5 | 41 | 1:38 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | -11 | 1:20 | Punt | |
| 6 | IND | IND 38 | 11 | 62 | 4:15 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 10 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 8 | IND | IND 8 | 3 | 6 | 0:49 | Interception | |
| 9 | TB | IND 16 | 4 | 16 | 1:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 0 | 0:28 | Punt | |
| 11 | TB | TB 22 | 6 | 30 | 2:56 | Punt | |
| 12 | IND | IND 20 | 8 | 40 | 1:44 | Missed field goal | |
| 13 | IND | IND 25 | 12 | 57 | 4:59 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | TB | TB 25 | 8 | 34 | 3:52 | Punt | |
| 15 | IND | IND 20 | 9 | 40 | 4:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | TB | TB 40 | 10 | 60 | 3:56 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | IND | IND 25 | 11 | 85 | 5:20 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | TB | TB 25 | 10 | 69 | 3:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 19 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 20 | TB | TB 35 | 3 | 8 | 0:52 | Fumble | |
| 21 | IND | TB 38 | 3 | 13 | 1:29 | End of game |
9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/30 | 199 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7.5 |
| Kyle Trask | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 15 | 100 | 6.7 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 30% | 1.3 |
| Chris Godwin | 3 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 23% | 0.1 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Davis | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Antoine Winfield | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zyon McCollum | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 24/41 | 251 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 45; the game landed 47 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2.7 |
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 17% | -1.5 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 1.7 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | -0.8 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Tryon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Delaney | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3.3 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 | -2.3 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 13 | 107 | 0 | 33% | 8.0 |
| Josh Downs | 5 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 33% | -8.9 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 3% | 3.8 |
| Will Mallory | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 8% | 2.3 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 15% | -1.5 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8% | -0.2 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaylon Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Baker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Land | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
