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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 23, 2023 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 12
It turned at Q1 5:53, 1st and 15, on Jake Ferguson — 6.0 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 45–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:53, Cowboys +6.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:53 · 1st and 15
Jake Ferguson
Cowboys
(5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 40 for 35 yards (57-C.Barton).
6.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.46 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Commanders at 7 of 15 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 40 for 35 yards (57-C.Barton).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rico Dowdle's 15-yard touchdown catch with 0:53 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Rico Dowdle15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 75 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 51 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Cowboys 5.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 12.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.1 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 11 against 5.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.0% in week 11 against 14.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders3.2 ptsright on their number · −2.3 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 75 snaps
Cowboys6.0 ptsright on their number · +2.9 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 90%
Tendencies room →Commanders59.6%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 64.6%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 57 early downs
Cowboys60.0%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Commanders22.4%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Cowboys29.4%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 120%
Fourth Down room →Commanders75.0%leaned — went for it · +39.6 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys0.0%leaned — took the kick · −46.7 vs their 46.7%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 59%
Tendencies room →Commanders32.4%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cowboys28.6%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 35%
Tendencies room →Commanders5.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cowboys14.3%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 46.7 points below their season mean of 46.7% and 1.6 times their own 28.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
22/32, 331 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
19.2 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
28/44, 300 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-12.3 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dak Prescott banked 10.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 32.2 | +10.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/32, 331 yd, 4 TD · 1 car, 10 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.3 | +4.0 | 76% | 76% | 19% | 0% | 13 car, 79 yd, 1 TD · 6/6, 24 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | +1.6 | 55% | 67% | 27% | 26% | 9/12, 100 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.3 | −6.0 | 93% | 94% | 28% | 35% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/9, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam HowellQB · Starter QB | 17.3 | −0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/44, 300 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.2 | +6.8 | 80% | 85% | 16% | 16% | 4/5, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +7.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | +1.0 | 85% | 92% | 14% | 14% | 5/6, 52 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB | 9.6 | +5.8 | 22% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.0 | −8.3 | 85% | 92% | 25% | 42% | 4/11, 50 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 8.4 | −2.6 | 45% | 37% | 7% | 0% | 15 car, 53 yd · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | 0.0 | 37% | 38% | 9% | 18% | 2/3, 49 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 6.7 | −1.9 | 46% | 57% | 9% | 0% | 6 car, 21 yd · 3/4, 16 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.2 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −1.4 | 72% | 88% | 9% | 15% | 1/3, 35 yd |
| Cole TurnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +2.4 | 15% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 1/1, 29 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −2.4 | 64% | 71% | 9% | 7% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +2.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +1.0 | 33% | 44% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −0.8 | 41% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Chris RodriguezRB | 2.1 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sean McKeonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 24% | 20% | 2% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:54) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end to WAS 29 for 14 yards (29-K.Fuller).
Q1 2:54 · Cowboys · 3rd & 7 at WAS 43 · gained 14 · +2.31 EP · +9.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 95 yards from the DAL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Cowboys6Commanders0Cowboys7Commanders3Cowboys7Commanders3Cowboys13Commanders3Cowboys14Commanders9Cowboys14Commanders10Cowboys14Commanders10Cowboys20Commanders10Cowboys23Commanders10Cowboys29Commanders10Cowboys31Commanders10Cowboys37Commanders10Cowboys38Commanders10Cowboys44Commanders10Cowboys45Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 28/44 | 300 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 | −5.8 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Chris Rodriguez |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 9 | 12 | 100 | 0 | 27% | +6.8 |
| Jahan Dotson | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamin Davis | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/32 | 331 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +19.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_12_WAS_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -13 and covered, winning by 35.
Total closed 48; the game landed 55 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 21 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.8 |
| Sam Howell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 | +2.1 |
| −5.0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 11 | 50 | 0 | 25% | −6.1 |
| Cole Turner | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 2% | +3.1 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −2.0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −0.6 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Percy Butler | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kendall Fuller | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Khaleke Hudson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Harris | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 72 | 1 | 16% | +6.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 28% | +5.0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 9% | +1.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 3% | +4.2 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 19% | −2.0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3% | +2.3 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daron Bland | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Hooker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Golston | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markquese Bell | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
