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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Commanders163 of 171 plays carry both curves
(5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 40 for 35 yards (57-C.Barton).
Swing +6.0 for CowboysExpected points +2.78 for CowboysThe model had Commanders 22 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:53DAL +6% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 40 for 35 yards (57-C.Barton).
1st · 9:21DAL +5% win prob(9:21) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left end to WAS 25 for 6 yards (33-D.Clark).
1st · 0:53DAL +5% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:19WAS +3% win prob(8:19) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to DAL 41 for -2 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa, 6-D.Wilson).
1st · 11:40DAL +3% win prob(11:40) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
1st · 4:08DAL +2% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to WAS 46 for 8 yards (55-K.Henry).
1st · 4:46
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rico Dowdle's 15-yard touchdown catch with 0:53 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st0:53Rico Dowdle·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–7
2nd11:31Joey Slye·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+33–7
2nd8:33Brandin Cooks·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+73–14
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Commanders: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.46Cowboys: +0.46 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Commanders: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.59Cowboys: +0.59 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Commanders: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.19Cowboys: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 75 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 51 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 12.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 11.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.1 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 11 against 5.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.0% in week 11 against 14.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cowboys14.3%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 46.7 points below their season mean of 46.7% and 1.6 times their own 28.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Pollard right+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:54) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end to WAS 29 for 14 yards (29-K.Fuller).
Q1 2:54 · Cowboys · 3rd & 7 at WAS 43 · gained 14 · +2.31 EP · +9.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 95 yards from the DAL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
809
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.2669%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.5677%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1731%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2433%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 44
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 38
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Cowboys 43
Commanders0Cowboys6
Commanders0Cowboys7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Commanders 15
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Commanders3Cowboys7
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 19
Commanders3Cowboys13
Commanders3Cowboys14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 31
Commanders9Cowboys14
Commanders10Cowboys14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 1
Commanders10Cowboys20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 7
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 36
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 42
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Cowboys 39
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to the Cowboys 45
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 36
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to midfield
4th quarter43 plays
Commanders10Cowboys23
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Commanders 34
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Commanders10Cowboys29
Commanders10Cowboys31
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 15
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 35
Commanders10Cowboys37
Commanders10Cowboys38
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Commanders 34
Commanders10Cowboys44
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 43
Commanders10Cowboys45
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
