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2023 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 23, 2023 · AT&T Stadium

Washington Commanders

10

Dallas CowboysWinner

45

DAL -13 ✓O 48 ✓Dome

Dallas Cowboys 45–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:53, DAL +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DAL ↑WAS ↓
Q1 · 5:53WAS 0 — DAL 0DAL ball · 1st & 15DAL 81%

(5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 40 for 35 yards (57-C.Barton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 5:53DAL +6% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 40 for 35 yards (57-C.Barton).
  2. Q1 · 9:21DAL +5% win prob(9:21) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left end to WAS 25 for 6 yards (33-D.Clark).
  3. Q1 · 0:53DAL +5% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 8:19WAS +3% win prob(8:19) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to DAL 41 for -2 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa, 6-D.Wilson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 0:53DAL Touchdown

    (:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — DAL 7
  2. Q2 · 11:31WAS Field goal

    (11:31) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — DAL 7
  3. Q2 · 8:33DAL Touchdown

    (8:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-B.Cooks for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — DAL 14
  4. Q2 · 1:55WAS Touchdown

    (1:55) 78-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 14-S.Howell right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 14
  5. Q2 · 0:30DAL Touchdown

    (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 20
  6. Q4 · 13:41DAL Field goal

    (13:41) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 23
  7. Q4 · 10:38DAL Touchdown

    (10:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 31
  8. Q4 · 6:05DAL Touchdown

    (6:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 9-K.Turpin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 38
  9. Q4 · 4:50DAL Touchdown

    (4:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at DAL 37. 26-D.Bland for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 45

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersCowboys
Offensive plays7551
Total yards376433 (edge)
Yards per play5.08.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.230.46 (edge)
Success rate47%53% (edge)
Dropback rate65%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.220.59 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.230.19 (edge)
Third downs7/156/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)79 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)21
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

22/32, 331 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

19.2 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

28/44, 300 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.3 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

13 att, 79 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

15 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Curtis SamuelWR

9/12 for 100 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Brandin CooksWR

4/5 for 72 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 258313:27Punt
2DALDAL 155181:34Punt
3WASWAS 189394:06Punt
4DALDAL 10121095:07Touchdown +7
5WASWAS 2510504:19Field goal +3
6DALDAL 258753:00Touchdown +7
7WASWAS 2515676:36Touchdown +7
8DALDAL 257701:25Touchdown +6
9WASWAS 254180:26End of half
10DALDAL 256171:58Punt
11WASWAS 89514:49Turnover on downs
12DALDAL 414-11:30Punt
13WASWAS 207163:50Punt
14DALDAL 1710544:17Field goal +3
15WASWAS 255-11:40Turnover on downs
16DALWAS 244261:24Touchdown +8
17WASWAS 257401:42Turnover on downs
18DALDAL 356652:51Touchdown +7
19WASWAS 256321:20Defensive touchdown
20WASWAS 258334:39End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 109 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Howell28/44300014-12.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson15533.50-5.8
Antonio Gibson6213.500.8
Chris Rodriguez4215.30-1.8
Sam Howell2136.512.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Curtis Samuel912100027%6.8
Jahan Dotson5652014%-5.0
Terry McLaurin41150025%-6.1
Cole Turner112902%3.1
Byron Pringle222705%0.9
Antonio Gibson341609%-2.0
Logan Thomas241509%-0.5
Brian Robinson231107%-0.6
Dyami Brown01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamin Davis240.000
Cody Barton420.000
Kamren Curl310.000
Percy Butler400.002
Kendall Fuller310.000
Benjamin St-Juste300.000
Daron Payne300.001
Khaleke Hudson210.000
Casey Toohill110.000
Jalen Harris100.000

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott22/3233140019.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard13796.114.0
Rico Dowdle3113.70-0.4
Dak Prescott11010.000.9
CeeDee Lamb100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brandin Cooks4572116%6.5
CeeDee Lamb4953128%5.0
Jalen Tolbert234909%1.1
Jake Ferguson133509%0.6
Kavontae Turpin113413%4.2
Tony Pollard6624019%-2.0
Jalen Brooks112403%1.6
Rico Dowdle111513%2.3
Michael Gallup111303%0.9
Luke Schoonmaker121206%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Daron Bland630.011
Stephon Gilmore420.001
Malik Hooker330.000
Jourdan Lewis420.000
Damone Clark320.000
Donovan Wilson140.001
Osa Odighizuwa310.000
Chauncey Golston220.000
Sam Williams220.000
Markquese Bell030.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -13
Closing total
48
WAS moneyline
+550
DAL moneyline
-800

Cowboys closed -13 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 48; the game landed 55 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
WAS 4 days · DAL 4 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.