2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -6 upsetU 41 ✓Steelers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 0:20, PIT +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:20ARI 9 — PIT 3ARI ball · 3rd & 5ARI 53%

(:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:20PIT +17% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:34ARI +15% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 24, touched at PIT 24, RECOVERED by ARI-55-D.Stills at PIT 21.
Q2 · 4:59ARI +9% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (92-K.Strong, 43-J.Luketa).
Q3 · 3:23ARI +9% win prob(3:23) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:04PIT Field goal
(12:04) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: ARI 0 — PIT 3
Q1 · 5:48ARI Field goal
(5:48) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — PIT 3
Q2 · 0:20ARI Touchdown
(:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 10 — PIT 3
Q3 · 7:21ARI Touchdown
(7:21) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 17 — PIT 3
Q4 · 8:33ARI Touchdown
(8:33) 6-J.Conner left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 24 — PIT 3
Q4 · 4:30PIT Touchdown
(4:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 24 — PIT 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Steelers
Offensive plays	60	57
Total yards	285	318 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.09
Success rate	35%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	45%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.46
Third downs	10/16 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Steelers outgained Cardinals 318–285 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

13/23, 145 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

11/17, 117 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.0 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

25 att, 105 yds, 2 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

16 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-6.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

8/9 for 89 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

4/5 for 86 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 24	8	65	2:59	Field goal +3
2	ARI	ARI 29	5	0	0:54	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 29	4	8	1:51	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 35	7	22	3:32	Field goal +3
5	PIT	PIT 25	7	17	3:07	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 16	4	-1	1:30	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 37	4	4	1:19	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 34	5	5	2:04	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 20	12	68	7:53	Turnover on downs
10	ARI	ARI 1	16	109	4:36	Touchdown +7
11	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
12	ARI	ARI 25	5	6	0:56	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 7	7	28	3:35	Fumble
14	ARI	PIT 21	8	14	3:11	Touchdown +7
15	PIT	PIT 25	10	53	3:58	Missed field goal
16	ARI	ARI 35	10	47	6:01	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 4	4	5	1:43	Punt
18	ARI	PIT 33	5	33	2:08	Touchdown +7
19	PIT	PIT 25	12	70	4:03	Touchdown +7
20	ARI	ARI 25	10	50	4:25	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 109 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	13/23	145	1	0	2	1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	25	105	4.2	2	0.7
Michael Carter	4	25	6.3	0	0.6
Kyler Murray	9	20	2.2	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey McBride	8	9	89	1	39%	7.4
Elijah Higgins	1	2	21	0	9%	0.9
Greg Dortch	1	3	19	0	13%	0.7
Geoff Swaim	2	2	10	0	9%	0.6
Rondale Moore	1	2	6	0	9%	-1.3
James Conner	0	2	0	0	9%	-1.2
Marquise Brown	0	3	0	0	13%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Josh Woods	4	7	0
Jalen Thompson	3	3	0
Budda Baker	4	2	0
Kevin Strong	2	2	0
Garrett Williams	3	1	0
Krys Barnes	1	2	0
Divaad Wilson	2	1	0
Kei'Trel Clark	3	0	0
B.J. Ojulari	0	2	1
Geoff Swaim	1	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	11/17	117	1	0	0	8.0
Kenny Pickett	7/10	70	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	16	63	3.9	-6.3
Jaylen Warren	9	59	6.6	2.0
Mitchell Trubisky	3	5	1.7	-5.6
Kenny Pickett	3	3	1.0	-3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	4	5	86	0	19%	7.1
Diontae Johnson	4	5	33	1	19%	1.4
Pat Freiermuth	3	5	29	0	19%	1.4
Allen Robinson	3	3	19	0	11%	0.6
Najee Harris	2	3	14	0	11%	0.9
Calvin Austin	1	1	10	0	4%	1.5
Connor Heyward	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.1
Jaylen Warren	1	3	-4	0	11%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mykal Walker	5	3	0.0	0
Mark Robinson	4	4	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	4	3	1.5	0
Damontae Kazee	3	1	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	1	3	0.5	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	1	0.0	0
Joey Porter	1	2	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	1	2	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	0	3	0.0	1
Trenton Thompson	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -6
Closing total: 41
ARI moneyline: +230
PIT moneyline: -285

Steelers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 34 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: ARI 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Mike Tomlin