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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 24 at Pittsburgh Steelers 10. Final.
Steelers -6 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 13
Arizona Cardinals 24, Steelers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:20, 3rd and 5, on Trey McBride — 17.2 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:20 · 3rd and 5
Trey McBride
Cardinals
(:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 41 ✓
Steelers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 0:20, Cardinals +17.2% win probability on one snap.
17.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Najee HarrisCardinalsQ2 4:59(4:59) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (92-K.Strong, 43-J.Luketa).
9.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ3 10:34(10:34) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 24, touched at PIT 24, RECOVERED by ARI-55-D.Stills at PIT 21.
14.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.46 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Steelers at 4 of 11 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Cardinals159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.2 for SteelersExpected points −3.65 for SteelersThe model had Cardinals 10 points higher than the market did.play 82
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:20PIT +17% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:34ARI +15% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 24, touched at PIT 24, RECOVERED by ARI-55-D.Stills at PIT 21.
2nd · 4:59ARI +9% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (92-K.Strong, 43-J.Luketa).
3rd · 3:23ARI +9% win prob(3:23) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
2nd · 1:47PIT +8% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride to PIT 27 for 17 yards (38-M.Walker).
3rd · 8:05PIT +7% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 83-G.Dortch. PENALTY on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at PIT 8 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Trey McBride's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:20 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:04Chris Boswell·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+30–3
1st5:48Matt Prater·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+33–3
Steelers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Cardinals: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.09Steelers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Cardinals: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.24Steelers: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Cardinals: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.46Steelers: −0.46 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 60 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Steelers’s 57 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Steelers 3.
NoteSteelers outgained Cardinals 318-285 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 77.3% in week 12 against 34.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: +1.9 pts in week 12 against −11.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
PIT's blitz rate sent turned over: 9.4% in week 12 against 40.7% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Steelers14.8%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.1%, 19.3 points below their season mean of 53.4% and 1.7 times their own 11.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
70Paris JohnsonT · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%68 snaps
63Trystan ColonC · Every snap100%68 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesT · Every snap100%68 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time96%65 snaps
76Will HernandezG · Full-time91%62 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
83Greg DortchWR · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
4Rondale MooreWR · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
2Marquise BrownWR · Heavy rotation53%36 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation50%34 snaps
82Andre BaccelliaWR · Rotational46%31 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational32%22 snaps
22Michael CarterRB · Situational19%13 snaps
61Carter O'DonnellT · Situational9%6 snaps
31Emari DemercadoRB · Situational3%2 snaps
16Dan ChisenaWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Antonio HamiltonCBStarling ThomasCBDennis DaleyTBlake WhiteheartTEZach PascalWRMichael WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Clayton TuneQB
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Dan MooreT · Every snap100%61 snaps
61Mason ColeC · Every snap100%61 snaps
78James DanielsG · Every snap100%61 snaps
14George PickensWR · Full-time80%49 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation72%44 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation59%36 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation59%36 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
11Allen RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation54%33 snaps
71Nate HerbigG · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
73Isaac SeumaloG · Rotational49%30 snaps
8Kenny PickettQB · Rotational49%30 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Rotational43%26 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Rotational31%19 snaps
13Miles BoykinWR · Situational20%12 snaps
19Calvin AustinWR · Situational15%9 snaps
—Rodney WilliamsTE · Situational8%5 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Darius RushCBBlake MartinezILBMontravius AdamsNTMason RudolphQBAnthony McFarlandRBDylan CookT
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:20 · Cardinals · 3rd & goal at PIT 5 · gained 5 · +3.65 EP · +15.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 99 yards from the ARI 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
599
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.3361%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0856%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0445%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1724%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12+0.178%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1233%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Cardinals0Steelers3
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Cardinals 11
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 37
Cardinals3Steelers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Steelers 33
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 22
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 40
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 48
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Cardinals 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Cardinals9Steelers3
Cardinals10Steelers3
Touchdown21 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Steelers 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Steelers 7 to the Steelers 30
Cardinals16Steelers3
Cardinals17Steelers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Steelers 1
No good11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Cardinals 27
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Cardinals 46
4th quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Steelers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Steelers 9
Cardinals23Steelers3
Cardinals24Steelers3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Steelers 9
Cardinals24Steelers9
Cardinals24Steelers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Cardinals 2
The period ended14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Steelers 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -6
Closing total
41
Cardinals moneyline
+230
Steelers moneyline
-285
Steelers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 34 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 58°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south; 0.12 in of precipitation; partly cloudy.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Mike Tomlin
2nd · 3:58
PIT +7% win prob
(3:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 29 for 21 yards (17-T.Thompson).
1st · 7:59PIT +7% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 31-E.Demercado. ARI-31-E.Demercado was injured during the play. PENALTY on PIT-50-E.Roberts, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 46 - No Play.
