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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 13
It turned at Q4 2:52, 1st and 10, on Trevor Siemian — 16.2 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:52 · 1st and 10
Trevor Siemian
Falcons
(2:52) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Lazard (27-R.Grant). Atlanta challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-T.Siemian sacked at NYJ 45 for -7 yards (27-R.Grant). FUMBLES (27-R.Grant), RECOVERED by ATL-59-A.Smith at ATL 47.
Atlanta Falcons 13–8. Biggest swing: Q4 2:52, Falcons +16.2% win probability on one snap.
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 4 of 14 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 15 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 4 chunk plays, against Falcons at 2 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(2:52) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Lazard (27-R.Grant). Atlanta challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-T.Siemian sacked at NYJ 45 for -7 yards (27-R.Grant). FUMBLES (27-
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
MyCole Pruitt's 20-yard touchdown catch with 10:10 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
MyCole Pruitt20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Desmond RidderLead never changed again+77–26 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryJets
Falcons ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 63 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Jets’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Jets 2.
Jets outgained Falcons 259-195 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected, −17.5 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
NYJ's blitz rate sent, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 22.5% in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
NYJ's play-action rate, 37.2%, is past their previous high of 23.8% in week 4 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.3% in week 12 against 23.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-17.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.6 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 63 snaps
Jets-8.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 97%
Tendencies room →Falcons34.7%leaned — ran early · −14.8 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 49 early downs
Jets53.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 61%
Tendencies room →Falcons23.3%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jets37.2%off script — faked the run · +19.9 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+2.11× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −34.0 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jets40.0%right on their number · +8.3 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 50%
Tendencies room →Falcons23.3%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jets30.0%off script — sent pressure · +13.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+2.26× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Falcons18.6%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jets23.3%inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 13.9 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 2.3 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
14/25, 148 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-4.7 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
12/27, 121 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-3.8 expected points added · -11.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
MyCole Pruitt banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +3.7 | 71% | 70% | 17% | 24% | 1 car, 1 yd · 5/6, 77 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 10.9 | −4.5 | 75% | 93% | 20% | 5% | 18 car, 53 yd · 3/5, 26 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 10.5 | −6.6 | 68% | 70% | 22% | 0% | 13 car, 16 yd · 6/8, 29 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 9.1 | −2.5 | 66% | 90% | 32% | 38% | 4/8, 51 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +6.0 | 29% | 17% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 8.8 | −1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/27, 121 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 0 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | −1.4 | 100% | 98% | 19% | 29% | 3/7, 50 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Alpha Receiver | 6.5 | −6.3 | 74% | 79% | 25% | 35% | 3/9, 35 yd |
| Tim BoyleQB · Starter QB | 4.1 | −3.5 | 66% | — | 0% | — | 14/25, 148 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB | 3.6 | −3.5 | 26% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 9 car, 35 yd · 1/2, 11 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −2.5 | 40% | 53% | 12% | 3% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 2.7 | −3.0 | 31% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 5 car, 11 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 2.6 | −1.2 | 16% | 7% | 0% | — | 8 car, 26 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.6 | 41% | 37% | 8% | 3% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 1.8 | −4.0 | 85% | 97% | 20% | 35% | 1/5, 8 yd |
| Trevor SiemianQB | 1.4 | −1.8 | 34% | — | 0% | — | 5/13, 66 yd · 1 car, 8 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 22% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 31% | 23% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 47% | 51% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:52) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Lazard (27-R.Grant). Atlanta challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-T.Siemian sacked at NYJ 45 for -7 yards (27-R.Grant). FUMBLES (27-R.Grant), RECOVERED by ATL-59-A.Smith at ATL 47.
Q4 2:52 · Jets · 1st & 10 at ATL 48 · gained nothing · -4.46 EP · −18.9% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 66 yards from the NYJ 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Falcons0
Jets2How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Falcons6Jets2Falcons7Jets2Falcons7Jets5Falcons10Jets5How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Falcons10Jets8Falcons13Jets8How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 12/27 | 121 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 32% | +3.3 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 20% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bud Dupree | 3 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dee Alford | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 14/25 | 148 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −4.7 |
| Trevor Siemian | 5/13 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −7.6 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_13_ATL_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -2 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 33; the game landed 21 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| Desmond Ridder | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.4 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 4% | +2.9 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 12% | +0.2 |
| Drake London | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 20% | −3.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jeff Okudah | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ta'Quon Graham | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcco Hellams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Breece Hall | 13 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | −6.7 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Gipson | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 | 17% | +1.4 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 19% | +0.8 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 25% | −2.8 |
| Breece Hall | 6 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 22% | +0.3 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −0.8 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Allen Lazard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Solomon Thomas | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Perrion Winfrey | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
