2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · MetLife Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

New York Jets

ATL -2 ✓U 33 ✓Falcons closed -2 and covered, winning by 5.

Atlanta Falcons 13–8. Biggest swing: Q4 2:52, ATL +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:52ATL 13 — NYJ 8NYJ ball · 1st & 10ATL 74%

(2:52) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Lazard (27-R.Grant). Atlanta challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-T.Siemian sacked at NYJ 45 for -7 yards (27-R.Grant). FUMBLES (27-

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:52ATL +16% win prob(2:52) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Lazard (27-R.Grant). Atlanta challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-T.Siemian sacked at NYJ 45 for -7 yards (27-R.Grant). FUMBLES (27-R.Grant), RECOVERED by ATL-59-A.Smith at ATL 47.
Q2 · 13:19ATL +14% win prob(13:19) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook up the middle to NYJ 46 for 7 yards (34-C.Phillips, 53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by ATL-20-D.Alford at NYJ 47.
Q4 · 11:53NYJ +10% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle to 20-Bre.Hall ran ob at NYJ 34 for 4 yards (55-K.Elliss). PENALTY on ATL-55-K.Elliss, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 34.
Q2 · 0:04ATL +10% win prob(:04) 6-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:40NYJ Safety
(1:40) 7-B.Robinson left end tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (21-A.Davis, 95-Q.Williams).
Score after this play: ATL 0 — NYJ 2
Q2 · 10:10ATL Touchdown
(10:10) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 85-M.Pruitt for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — NYJ 2
Q2 · 4:00NYJ Field goal
(4:00) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — NYJ 5
Q2 · 0:04ATL Field goal
(:04) 6-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — NYJ 5
Q3 · 10:36NYJ Field goal
(10:36) 9-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — NYJ 8
Q3 · 3:41ATL Field goal
(3:41) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NYJ-92-P.Winfrey was injured during the play.
Score after this play: ATL 13 — NYJ 8

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Jets
Offensive plays	63	67
Total yards	195	259 (edge)
Yards per play	3.1	3.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23 (edge)	-0.35
Success rate	30% (edge)	25%
Dropback rate	48%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32 (edge)	-0.48
Third downs	4/14 (edge)	2/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Jets outgained Falcons 259–195 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Tim BoyleQB

14/25, 148 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.7 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

12/27, 121 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.8 expected points added · -11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

18 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Dalvin CookRB

9 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Xavier GipsonWR

5/6 for 77 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

4/8 for 51 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	8	16	2:54	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 15	4	6	1:17	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 34	6	6	2:06	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 9	11	43	6:28	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 1	2	-1	0:39	Safety
6	NYJ	NYJ 33	5	5	1:36	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 10	4	4	1:41	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 44	1	7	0:08	Fumble
9	ATL	NYJ 47	7	47	3:07	Touchdown +7
10	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	66	6:08	Field goal +3
11	ATL	ATL 25	6	5	2:10	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 11	5	9	0:33	Punt
13	ATL	NYJ 44	7	30	1:13	Field goal +3
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	57	4:28	Field goal +3
15	ATL	ATL 25	15	62	6:54	Field goal +3
16	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	6	0:53	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 29	4	-6	1:37	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 42	2	1	0:42	Interception
19	ATL	ATL 32	7	19	2:20	Punt
20	NYJ	NYJ 19	8	15	2:19	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 9	4	5	1:05	Punt
22	NYJ	ATL 48	4	4	2:07	Punt
23	ATL	ATL 12	4	7	2:12	Punt
24	NYJ	NYJ 30	5	22	2:36	Fumble
25	ATL	ATL 47	4	1	0:54	Punt
26	NYJ	NYJ 7	7	18	1:11	Turnover on downs
27	ATL	NYJ 30	1	0	0:42	End of game

5 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 66 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	12/27	121	1	0	3	-3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	18	53	2.9	-4.9
Tyler Allgeier	8	26	3.3	-2.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	5	11	2.2	-1.7
Desmond Ridder	3	0	0.0	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	4	8	51	0	32%	3.3
Bijan Robinson	3	5	26	0	20%	1.0
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	20	1	4%	2.9
Jonnu Smith	2	3	10	0	12%	0.2
Drake London	1	5	8	0	20%	-3.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	2	6	0	8%	-0.4
KhaDarel Hodge	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bud Dupree	3	4	2.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	4	2	0.0	1	2
Dee Alford	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kaden Elliss	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jeff Okudah	5	0	0.0	0	0
Nate Landman	1	3	0.0	0	1
Ta'Quon Graham	1	2	0.0	0	0
DeMarcco Hellams	2	1	0.0	0	0
David Onyemata	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kentavius Street	2	1	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tim Boyle	14/25	148	0	1	1	-4.7
Trevor Siemian	5/13	66	0	0	3	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	9	35	3.9	-6.0
Breece Hall	13	16	1.2	-6.7
Trevor Siemian	1	8	8.0	0.4
Tim Boyle	1	2	2.0	1.4
Xavier Gipson	1	1	1.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Xavier Gipson	5	6	77	17%	1.4
Garrett Wilson	3	7	50	19%	0.8
Tyler Conklin	3	9	35	25%	-2.8
Breece Hall	6	8	29	22%	0.3
Jeremy Ruckert	1	3	12	8%	-0.8
Dalvin Cook	1	2	11	6%	0.6
Allen Lazard	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quincy Williams	3	5	0.0	0
Tony Adams	4	3	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	4	1.5	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	1	0.0	0
Ahmad Gardner	3	1	0.0	0
Jermaine Johnson	2	2	1.5	0
Solomon Thomas	1	3	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	2	1	0.0	0
Perrion Winfrey	1	2	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	2	0	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2
Closing total: 33
ATL moneyline: -125
NYJ moneyline: +105

Falcons closed -2 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 33; the game landed 21 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 50°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: ATL 7 days · NYJ 9 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Robert Saleh