2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -4 no coverO 37 ✓Buccaneers closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 5:04, TB +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:04CAR 10 — TB 13TB ball · 1st & 10CAR 52%

(5:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CAR 1 for 74 yards (23-C.Henderson). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pas

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:04TB +24% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CAR 1 for 74 yards (23-C.Henderson). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play.
Q1 · 7:34TB +13% win prob(7:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CAR 5 for 40 yards (27-A.Cook).
Q2 · 2:31CAR +9% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods at CAR 43. 25-X.Woods to CAR 40 for -3 yards (13-M.Evans).
Q4 · 2:27CAR +9% win prob(2:27) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:16TB Touchdown
(6:16) 1-R.White up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — TB 7
Q2 · 13:33CAR Field goal
(13:33) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — TB 7
Q3 · 5:10CAR Touchdown
(5:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — TB 7
Q3 · 5:04TB Touchdown
(5:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CAR 1 for 74 yards (23-C.Henderson). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — TB 14
Q4 · 11:43TB Touchdown
(11:43) 14-C.Godwin right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — TB 21
Q4 · 5:06CAR Touchdown
(5:06) 30-C.Hubbard right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CAR 18 — TB 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	70	56
Total yards	284	324 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	50%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	-0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	3/15	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

14/29, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -11.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

15/31, 178 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

25 att, 104 yds, 2 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

20 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

7/12 for 162 yds, 1 TD

44% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Jonathan MingoWR

6/10 for 69 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	10	34	4:29	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 15	4	0	0:57	Punt
3	TB	TB 43	9	55	3:26	Touchdown +7
4	CAR	CAR 25	15	70	7:38	Field goal +3
5	TB	TB 25	5	6	1:21	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 27	4	7	2:00	Punt
7	TB	TB 22	4	2	1:02	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 43	6	11	3:17	Punt
9	TB	TB 7	6	22	3:28	Interception
10	CAR	CAR 40	4	9	0:41	Punt
11	TB	TB 20	5	23	0:48	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 26	6	33	0:53	Turnover on downs
13	CAR	CAR 25	5	-1	1:33	Punt
14	TB	TB 38	4	1	0:57	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 20	4	4	2:20	Punt
16	TB	TB 31	4	-4	1:30	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 35	8	65	3:36	Touchdown +7
18	TB	TB 25	3	75	0:10	Touchdown +7
19	CAR	CAR 25	5	0	0:18	Punt
20	TB	TB 30	4	-1	1:17	Punt
21	CAR	CAR 22	6	3	2:38	Punt
22	TB	TB 33	8	62	4:05	Touchdown +7
23	CAR	CAR 25	13	74	6:34	Touchdown +8
24	TB	TB 25	6	10	1:31	Punt
25	CAR	CAR 31	4	9	1:17	Interception
26	TB	TB 43	5	39	2:14	End of game

6 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	15/31	178	0	1	4	-5.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	25	104	4.2	2	0.6
Miles Sanders	8	23	2.9	0	-2.1
Raheem Blackshear	1	6	6.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jonathan Mingo	6	10	69	38%	1.4
D.J. Chark	3	4	56	15%	4.7
Adam Thielen	3	6	25	23%	0.4
Stephen Sullivan	1	2	16	8%	1.2
Miles Sanders	1	2	6	8%	-0.6
Ian Thomas	1	1	6	4%	0.3
Mike Strachan	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Frankie Luvu	3	4	0.0	0	1
Marquis Haynes	4	2	1.0	0	0
Jaycee Horn	4	1	0.0	0	1
Shy Tuttle	1	3	0.0	0	0
Derrick Brown	1	3	0.0	0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	2	2	0.0	0	0
Troy Hill	3	1	0.0	0	1
Xavier Woods	1	2	0.0	1	1
Amare Barno	1	1	0.0	0	0
Sam Franklin	2	0	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	14/29	202	1	1	1	-3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rachaad White	20	84	4.2	1	-3.4
Chris Godwin	1	19	19.0	1	2.9
Trey Palmer	1	13	13.0	0	1.1
Deven Thompkins	2	7	3.5	0	0.9
Chase Edmonds	2	7	3.5	0	-0.3
Baker Mayfield	2	-2	-1.0	0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	7	12	162	1	44%	6.1
Rachaad White	3	5	22	0	19%	-1.1
Trey Palmer	2	5	12	0	19%	-1.4
Deven Thompkins	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.5
Chase Edmonds	1	1	2	0	4%	-1.2
Chris Godwin	0	3	0	0	11%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Antoine Winfield	5	2	1.0	1	3
J.J. Russell	6	1	1.0	0	0
YaYa Diaby	3	3	1.0	0	0
Christian Izien	5	0	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	4	1	0.0	0	0
Joe Tryon	1	3	0.0	0	0
Zyon McCollum	3	1	0.0	0	0
Dee Delaney	2	2	0.0	0	0
Anthony Nelson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ryan Neal	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -4
Closing total: 37
CAR moneyline: +164
TB moneyline: -198

Buccaneers closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 37; the game landed 39 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: CAR 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Chris Tabor vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.