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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 13
It turned at Q3 5:04, 1st and 10, on Mike Evans — 24.3 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:04 · 1st and 10
Mike Evans
Buccaneers
(5:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CAR 1 for 74 yards (23-C.Henderson). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 5:04, Buccaneers +24.3% win probability on one snap.
24.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Panthers at 3 of 15 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(5:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CAR 1 for 74 yards (23-C.Henderson). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pas
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mike Evans's 75-yard touchdown catch with 5:04 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Mike Evans75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker MayfieldLead never changed again+710–146 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 70 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Buccaneers 4.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's blitz rate sent, 65.7%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 24.7 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate, 39.2%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 11 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
CAR's pass rate over expected, −14.5 pts, is past their previous low of −10.5 pts in week 12 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-14.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.0 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 69 snaps
Buccaneers-6.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 83%
Tendencies room →Panthers39.2%leaned — ran early · −15.8 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 51 early downs
Buccaneers43.9%inside their normal wobble · −10.4 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 47%
Tendencies room →Panthers22.9%leaned — faked the run · +9.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Panthers33.3%inside their normal wobble · −19.6 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±22.1 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 76%
Tendencies room →Panthers33.3%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Buccaneers65.7%leaned — sent pressure · +26.5 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Panthers10.0%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.1%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
TB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 65.7%, 26.5 points above their season mean of 39.2% and 1.9 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
14/29, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.7 expected points added · -11.7% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
15/31, 178 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.1 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mike Evans banked 10.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.2 | +10.2 | 82% | 87% | 44% | 68% | 7/12, 162 yd, 1 TD |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.4 | +2.5 | 65% | 54% | 0% | — | 25 car, 104 yd, 2 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.6 | −1.3 | 87% | 83% | 19% | 0% | 20 car, 84 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 22 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −2.2 | 96% | 94% | 38% | 30% | 6/10, 69 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | +0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/29, 202 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -2 yd |
| D.J. CharkWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +3.0 | 40% | 40% | 15% | 24% | 3/4, 56 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +2.3 | 84% | 90% | 11% | 16% | 1 car, 19 yd, 1 TD · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 7.1 | −3.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/31, 178 yd, 1 INT |
| Adam ThielenWR · Featured Receiver | 5.5 | −3.0 | 89% | 91% | 23% | 23% | 3/6, 25 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Featured Receiver | 4.5 | −3.0 | 61% | 77% | 19% | 13% | 1 car, 13 yd · 2/5, 12 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 3.9 | −2.2 | 32% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 8 car, 23 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | 0.0 | 46% | 57% | 8% | 9% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.8 | 21% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 2 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 1.9 | −0.4 | 15% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 67% | 54% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Mike StrachanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 43% | 49% | 4% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 98% | 100% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CAR 1 for 74 yards (23-C.Henderson). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play.
Q3 5:04 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at TB 25 · gained 75 · +5.59 EP · +23.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 75 yards from the TB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers0
Buccaneers6Panthers0Buccaneers7Panthers3Buccaneers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers9Buccaneers7Panthers10Buccaneers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers10Buccaneers13Panthers10Buccaneers14Panthers10Buccaneers20Panthers10Buccaneers21Panthers16Buccaneers21Panthers18Buccaneers21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/31 | 178 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 25 | 104 | 4.2 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Miles Sanders | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Mingo | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 38% | +1.4 |
| D.J. Chark | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 15% | +4.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marquis Haynes | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shy Tuttle |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/29 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_13_CAR_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 37; the game landed 39 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 23% | +0.4 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Woods | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Amare Barno | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Franklin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 84 |
| 4.2 |
| 1 |
| −3.4 |
| Chris Godwin | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Deven Thompkins | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 12 | 162 | 1 | 44% | +6.1 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 19% | −1.1 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 19% | −1.4 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Chris Godwin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| J.J. Russell | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Delaney | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
