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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Bengals183 of 199 plays carry both curves
(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 28 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).
Swing +32.9 for JaguarsExpected points −0.36 for JaguarsModel and market agree here.play 183
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:12JAX +33% win prob(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 28 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).
Overtime · 1:50JAX +28% win prob(1:50) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. Penalty on JAX-2-R.Jenkins, Leaping, declined.
4th · 2:33JAX +20% win prob(2:33) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Overtime · 3:22JAX +19% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 5-T.Higgins ran ob at JAX 42 for 11 yards (32-Ty.Campbell).
Overtime · 4:55JAX +16% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 47 for 17 yards (31-Dari.Williams).
3rd · 5:26CIN +16% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 83-T.Boyd pass short right intended for 28-J.Mixon INTERCEPTED by 41-J.Allen at CIN 17. 41-J.Allen to CIN 9 for 8 yards (81-I.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 48-yard field goal with 1:50 left in overtime put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:33Evan McPherson·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+331–28
4th0:30Brandon McManus·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+331–31
Overtime1:50Evan McPherson·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.AdomitisLead never changed again+334–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryJaguars
Bengals6–2Jaguars
491Total yards376
6.8Yards per play5.5
51%Success rate49%
57%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays9
25First downs22
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Bengals: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.19Jaguars: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Bengals: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.26Jaguars: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Bengals: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.03Jaguars: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 72 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 68 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Jaguars 5.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's play-action rate, 38.1%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.6% in week 5.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
CIN's early-down pass rate, 50.0%, is past their previous low of 55.6% in week 1 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 12.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Jaguars11.9%
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteCIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.1%, 20.8 points above their season mean of 17.3% and 2.7 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
L.Cooke punts+33% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 28 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).
OT 5:12 · Jaguars · 4th & 21 at JAX 41 · gained nothing · -0.36 EP · +32.9% win probability
181 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 92 yards from the CIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
44%
Yards
867
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0255%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.2274%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1057%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.6550%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR5+1.33100%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Jaguars 44
Bengals0Jaguars6
Bengals0Jaguars7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Bengals 4
No good8 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Jaguars 35
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Bengals 47
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 16
2nd quarter45 plays
Bengals6Jaguars7
Bengals7Jaguars7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Jaguars 6
Bengals7Jaguars13
Bengals7Jaguars14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 22
Bengals13Jaguars14
Bengals14Jaguars14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jaguars 2
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Jaguars 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bengals20Jaguars14
Bengals21Jaguars14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bengals21Jaguars20
Bengals21Jaguars21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Bengals 14
How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Bengals21Jaguars27
Bengals21Jaguars28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 1
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jaguars 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 10
4th quarter54 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bengals27Jaguars28
Bengals28Jaguars28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
No good11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 23
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Bengals31Jaguars28
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Jaguars 32
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Bengals31Jaguars31
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 46
Overtime26 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxNine defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 45
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Bengals34Jaguars31
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Jaguars 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -10
Closing total
41
Bengals moneyline
+410
Jaguars moneyline
-550
Jaguars closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 65 — over by 24.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Bengals 8 days · Jaguars 8 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Doug Pederson
Overtime · 8:48JAX +16% win prob(8:48) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 17-E.Engram pushed ob at JAX 39 for 10 yards (20-D.Turner).
Overtime · 6:19CIN +15% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley to CIN 2 for 43 yards (22-C.Awuzie). PENALTY on JAX-77-A.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 45 - No Play.
