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2023 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 4, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

34

Jacksonville Jaguars

31

JAX -10 upsetO 41 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:12, JAX +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4JAX ↑CIN ↓
OT · 5:12CIN 31 — JAX 31JAX ball · 4th & 21CIN 72%

(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 28 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 5:12JAX +33% win prob(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 28 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).
  2. OT · 1:50JAX +28% win prob(1:50) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. Penalty on JAX-2-R.Jenkins, Leaping, declined.
  3. Q4 · 2:33JAX +20% win prob(2:33) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
  4. OT · 3:22JAX +19% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 5-T.Higgins ran ob at JAX 42 for 11 yards (32-Ty.Campbell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:55JAX Touchdown

    (6:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 0 — JAX 7
  2. Q2 · 12:29CIN Touchdown

    (12:29) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — JAX 7
  3. Q2 · 6:30JAX Touchdown

    (6:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — JAX 14
  4. Q2 · 1:06CIN Touchdown

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 14 — JAX 14
  5. Q3 · 12:01CIN Touchdown

    (12:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Robertson-Harris]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — JAX 14
  6. Q3 · 5:33JAX Touchdown

    (5:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 11-P.Washington for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — JAX 21
  7. Q3 · 3:13JAX Touchdown

    (3:13) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — JAX 28
  8. Q4 · 9:28CIN Touchdown

    (9:28) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 28 — JAX 28
  9. Q4 · 2:33CIN Field goal

    (2:33) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

    Score after this play: CIN 31 — JAX 28
  10. Q4 · 0:30JAX Field goal

    (:30) 10-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: CIN 31 — JAX 31
  11. OT · 1:50CIN Field goal

    (1:50) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. Penalty on JAX-2-R.Jenkins, Leaping, declined.

    Score after this play: CIN 34 — JAX 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsJaguars
Offensive plays7268
Total yards491 (edge)376
Yards per play6.8 (edge)5.5
Expected points added / play0.19 (edge)0.19
Success rate51% (edge)49%
Dropback rate58%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)0.03
Third downs8/14 (edge)6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)89 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)22
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers10 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

32/37, 354 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

19.5 expected points added · +19.9% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

22/29, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.5 expected points added · +14.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

19 att, 68 yds, 2 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

9 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

11/12 for 149 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 10.4 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

9/9 for 82 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 229144:20Turnover on downs
2JAXJAX 498513:49Touchdown +7
3CINCIN 168464:38Missed field goal
4JAXJAX 47460:57Punt
5CINCIN 89923:52Touchdown +7
6JAXJAX 2512806:00Touchdown +7
7CINCIN 2514755:20Touchdown +7
8JAXJAX 256130:42Punt
9CINCIN 25150:22End of half
10JAXJAX 32591:39Punt
11CINCIN 164841:31Touchdown +7
12JAXJAX 1614796:24Touchdown +7
13CINCIN 25200:10Interception
14JAXCIN 9592:06Touchdown +7
15CINCIN 256332:20Punt
16JAXJAX 9471:07Punt
17CINJAX 4810435:16Touchdown +7
18JAXJAX 259454:28Missed field goal
19CINCIN 387362:31Field goal +3
20JAXJAX 2510512:02Field goal +3
21CINCIN 254210:26Turnover on downs
22JAXJAX 259264:58Punt
23CINCIN 2812423:17Field goal +3

11 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 92 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jake Browning32/3735410219.5
Tyler Boyd0/10010-6.5
Ja'Marr Chase1/1-7000-2.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon19683.620.6
Chase Brown9616.80-0.2
Jake Browning22211.012.7
Tyler Boyd155.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase1112149132%10.4
Joe Mixon6749019%-4.3
Tyler Boyd5737019%2.7
Tee Higgins333608%3.4
Tanner Hudson4435011%3.5
Trenton Irwin112503%1.6
Mitchell Wilcox111203%0.7
Drew Sample111103%1.5
Jake Browning11-703%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt380.000
Logan Wilson530.000
D.J. Turner800.000
Dax Hill420.001
Jordan Battle331.001
D.J. Reader150.000
Mike Hilton230.001
Chidobe Awuzie320.001
Sam Hubbard121.000
Cam Sample110.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence22/2925820210.5
C.J. Beathard9/10630020.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne11454.11-1.4
Trevor Lawrence581.614.9
C.J. Beathard177.000.3
Calvin Ridley372.30-0.8
D'Ernest Johnson540.80-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram9982123%4.3
Zay Jones5878021%3.1
Parker Washington6661115%6.5
Travis Etienne4434010%0.6
Calvin Ridley4826021%-1.3
Christian Kirk112603%1.6
Luke Farrell11903%0.7
D'Ernest Johnson11503%0.2
Tim Jones01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun850.000
Rayshawn Jenkins530.000
Darious Williams520.000
Josh Hines-Allen241.511
Andre Cisco510.000
Tyson Campbell420.000
Devin Lloyd330.000
Travon Walker040.500
Antonio Johnson310.000
Gregory Junior210.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -10
Closing total
41
CIN moneyline
+410
JAX moneyline
-550

Jaguars closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 65 — over by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
CIN 8 days · JAX 8 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Doug Pederson