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Cleveland Browns 19 at Los Angeles Rams 36. Final.
Rams -3.5 ✓O 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 13
Los Angeles Rams 36, Browns 19 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 6:51, 1st and 10, on John Johnson — 26.2 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:51 · 1st and 10
John Johnson
Rams
(6:51) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 34. 43-J.Johnson to CLE 24 for 42 yards (64-G.Christian, 77-W.Teller).
Dome
Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Los Angeles Rams 36–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 6:51, Rams +26.2% win probability on one snap.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Puka NacuaRamsQ1 4:08(4:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.7pts
Harrison BryantBrownsQ4 8:56(8:56) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 1 giveaway.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Rams at 4 of 12 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Browns176 of 183 plays carry both curves
(6:51) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 34. 43-J.Johnson to CLE 24 for 42 yards (64-G.Christian, 77-W.Teller).
Swing +26.2 for RamsExpected points +5.33 for RamsThe model had Browns 3 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:51CLE +26% win prob(6:51) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 34. 43-J.Johnson to CLE 24 for 42 yards (64-G.Christian, 77-W.Teller).
1st · 4:08LA +12% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:56LA +11% win prob(8:56) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:08LA +10% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson pushed ob at CLE 10 for 30 yards (1-J.Thornhill).
2nd · 2:11LA +9% win prob(2:11) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
2nd · 0:53LA +9% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at CLE 26 for 21 yards (1-J.Thornhill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Demarcus Robinson's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:45 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:26Jerome Ford·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+77–0
1st6:33Lucas Havrisik·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+37–3
1st4:08Puka Nacua·70-yd TD catch70-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–10
2nd2:11Dustin Hopkins·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+310–10
2nd0:05Lucas Havrisik·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+310–13
3rd5:02Dustin Hopkins·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+313–13
3rd0:45Demarcus Robinson·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+713–20
4th8:56Harrison Bryant·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · kick no good, wide right+619–20
4th3:51Cooper Kupp·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+719–27
4th0:42K.Turner and·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+219–36
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryRams
Browns2–6Rams
327Total yards401
4.7Yards per play6.6
42%Success rate43%
44%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays7
19First downs16
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Browns: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.12Rams: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Browns: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.14Rams: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Browns: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.08Rams: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 69 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Rams’s 61 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Rams 6.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 12 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Rams8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.4%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 18.0% and 1.6 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
64Geron ChristianT · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Dawand JonesT · Every snap100%71 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%71 snaps
15Joe FlaccoQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
19Cedric TillmanWR · Full-time93%66 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Full-time83%59 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Heavy rotation73%52 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Heavy rotation51%36 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational44%31 snaps
18David BellWR · Rotational39%28 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational35%25 snaps
2Amari CooperWR · Rotational32%23 snaps
84Jordan AkinsTE · Situational17%12 snaps
20Pierre StrongRB · Situational14%10 snaps
68Michael DunnG · Situational11%8 snaps
53Nick HarrisC · Situational4%3 snaps
66James HudsonT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Luke WyplerCDenzel WardCBIsaiah McGuireDESiaki IkaDTDorian Thompson-RobinsonQBLeroy WatsonTMarquise GoodwinWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:51) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 34. 43-J.Johnson to CLE 24 for 42 yards (64-G.Christian, 77-W.Teller).
Q4 6:51 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 21 · gained nothing · -5.33 EP · −27.6% win probability
174 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 79 yards from the LA 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
726
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.1261%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1574%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1858%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Browns6Rams0
Browns7Rams0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Rams 24
Browns7Rams3
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Browns 26
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Browns7Rams9
Browns7Rams10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 30
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 49
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Browns 28
2nd quarter53 plays
No good1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Rams 49
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 18
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 44 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 39
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 2 to the Browns 3
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 41
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Browns10Rams10
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Rams 22
Browns10Rams13
Field goal16 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Browns 9
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Rams 42
Browns13Rams13
Field goal16 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Rams 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Browns13Rams19
Browns13Rams20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Browns 7
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Browns19Rams20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Rams 8
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Browns19Rams26
Browns19Rams27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 3
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 34
Browns19Rams33
Browns19Rams34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 1
Browns19Rams36
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
