2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Denver Broncos

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -3.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Houston Texans 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:16, DEN +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:16DEN 17 — HOU 22DEN ball · 3rd & 8HOU 59%

(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:16DEN +39% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.
Q4 · 2:00HOU +17% win prob(2:00) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 21 for 1 yard (25-D.King).
Q4 · 3:05HOU +10% win prob(3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 25-S.Perine [96-M.Collins]. PENALTY on HOU-48-C.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play.
Q3 · 4:55HOU +9% win prob(4:55) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-5-J.Pitre, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:14HOU Field goal
(10:14) 16-M.Ammendola 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — HOU 3
Q1 · 3:53HOU Touchdown
(3:53) 31-D.Pierce up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play. He is Out. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 0 — HOU 10
Q2 · 12:58HOU Field goal
(12:58) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — HOU 13
Q2 · 1:27DEN Field goal
(1:27) 16-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — HOU 13
Q3 · 8:55HOU Field goal
(8:55) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — HOU 16
Q3 · 4:55DEN Touchdown
(4:55) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-5-J.Pitre, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — HOU 16
Q4 · 14:21HOU Touchdown
(14:21) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DEN 10 — HOU 22
Q4 · 12:06DEN Touchdown
(12:06) 3-R.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — HOU 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Texans
Offensive plays	58	63
Total yards	283	354 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	43% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	60%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	0/11	4/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	14
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

16/27, 274 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.3 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

15/26, 186 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-15.0 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

13 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

10 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

9/12 for 191 yds, 1 TD

44% of team targets · 12.1 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

2/7 for 77 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	1:52	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 18	4	7	0:54	Punt
3	HOU	DEN 47	5	32	2:03	Field goal +3
4	DEN	DEN 25	5	-4	2:00	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 22	11	74	4:22	Touchdown +7
6	DEN	DEN 25	6	20	2:43	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 11	7	79	3:12	Field goal +3
8	DEN	DEN 25	7	25	2:59	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 9	6	46	3:22	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 28	13	56	5:09	Field goal +3
11	HOU	HOU 25	6	19	1:10	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 11	1	0	0:14	End of half
13	DEN	DEN 25	5	-6	2:07	Punt
14	HOU	HOU 40	7	45	4:02	Field goal +3
15	DEN	DEN 24	5	7	1:51	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 15	4	0	0:53	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 42	4	53	1:20	Touchdown +7
18	HOU	HOU 21	8	3	3:43	Punt
19	DEN	DEN 20	1	0	0:05	Interception
20	HOU	DEN 21	5	21	1:43	Touchdown +6
21	DEN	DEN 25	7	60	2:12	Touchdown +7
22	HOU	HOU 25	5	-7	1:36	Punt
23	DEN	DEN 32	2	4	0:55	Interception
24	HOU	HOU 27	9	33	4:57	Punt
25	DEN	DEN 20	14	61	4:27	Interception
26	HOU	HOU 20	1	0	0:09	End of game

8 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 79 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	15/26	186	1	3	3	-15.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	13	46	3.5	0	-0.5
Russell Wilson	10	44	4.4	1	4.2
Jaleel McLaughlin	4	15	3.8	0	-0.4
Marvin Mims	1	8	8.0	0	0.6
Michael Burton	1	4	4.0	0	0.0
Samaje Perine	1	1	1.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	2	7	77	1	29%	0.2
Jerry Jeudy	3	4	51	0	17%	-1.7
Javonte Williams	3	3	24	0	13%	1.3
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	12	0	4%	0.7
Jaleel McLaughlin	2	2	6	0	8%	-0.4
Adam Trautman	1	2	6	0	8%	-0.4
Marvin Mims	1	2	5	0	8%	-0.5
Samaje Perine	2	2	5	0	8%	-2.2
Lucas Krull	0	1	0	0	4%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
P.J. Locke	6	2	1.0	0
Alex Singleton	3	4	1.0	0
Josey Jewell	2	4	0.0	0
Zach Allen	2	4	0.5	0
Jonathon Cooper	3	3	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	3	1	0.0	1
D.J. Jones	2	2	0.0	0
Fabian Moreau	2	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Harris	2	0	1.0	0
Baron Browning	1	1	0.5	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	16/27	274	1	0	5	0.3
Davis Mills	1/1	18	0	0	0	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dameon Pierce	15	41	2.7	1	-3.3
Devin Singletary	8	36	4.5	0	-1.6
C.J. Stroud	6	11	1.8	0	0.4
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	9	12	191	1	44%	12.1
Brevin Jordan	3	5	64	0	19%	4.1
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	14	0	4%	-0.1
John Metchie	1	3	9	0	11%	-1.4
Eric Saubert	1	1	5	0	4%	0.1
Andrew Beck	1	2	5	0	7%	-2.2
Devin Singletary	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.1
Noah Brown	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Desmond King	4	5	0.0	0	0
Blake Cashman	1	5	0.0	0	0
Denzel Perryman	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jalen Pitre	5	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Harris	3	2	0.0	0	0
Will Anderson	3	2	2.0	0	1
Jonathan Greenard	3	1	1.0	0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	2	1	0.0	1	1
Maliek Collins	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3.5
Closing total: 47.5
DEN moneyline: +142
HOU moneyline: -170

Texans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 39 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: DEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs DeMeco Ryans