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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 13
It turned at Q4 0:16, 3rd and 8, on Jimmie Ward — 38.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:16, Texans +38.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:16 · 3rd and 8
Jimmie Ward
Texans
(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.
38.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans won this one — 4 of 16 on third down, against Broncos at 0 of 11 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — -0.00 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Broncos at 5 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Ammendola's 29-yard field goal with 10:14 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Matt Ammendola29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+30–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Texans’s 63 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Texans 5.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 15.2% in week 12 against 33.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.1% in week 12 against 22.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 12 against 48.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
HOU's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.9 pts in week 12 against −4.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-8.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −4.7 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 58 snaps
Texans-4.4 ptsright on their number · −1.8 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 83%
Tendencies room →Broncos52.3%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 44 early downs
Texans48.9%right on their number · −5.4 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 46%
Tendencies room →Broncos31.4%leaned — faked the run · +10.4 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Texans33.3%leaned — faked the run · +10.0 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Broncos42.9%leaned — went for it · +21.2 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±19.1 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Texans20.0%right on their number · −11.8 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 64%
Tendencies room →Broncos38.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Texans11.4%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Broncos13.9%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Texans22.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
DEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.4%, 10.4 points above their season mean of 21.1% and 1.2 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
16/27, 274 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.3 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
15/26, 186 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-15.0 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
2/7 for 77 yds, 1 TD
29% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nico Collins banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 34.1 | +6.0 | 81% | 86% | 44% | 52% | 9/12, 191 yd, 1 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | −5.0 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 274 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 11 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | −9.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/26, 186 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 10 car, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.7 | −0.2 | 85% | 94% | 29% | 69% | 2/7, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Dameon PierceRB · Committee Back | 10.1 | −1.0 | 38% | 25% | 0% | — | 15 car, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 10.0 | −0.5 | 65% | 57% | 13% | 1% | 13 car, 46 yd · 3/3, 24 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | +1.0 | 75% | 83% | 19% | 11% | 3/5, 64 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +1.8 | 70% | 80% | 17% | 12% | 3/4, 51 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 5.0 | −1.2 | 46% | 53% | 4% | 1% | 8 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 4.1 | −0.5 | 15% | 14% | 8% | 0% | 4 car, 15 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 2.6 | −0.6 | 20% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 2.5 | −0.1 | 16% | 22% | 4% | 4% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −2.5 | 30% | 43% | 8% | 15% | 1 car, 8 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 42% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −4.3 | 35% | 36% | 11% | 18% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −3.2 | 63% | 51% | 8% | 4% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 28% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 1.5 | −2.9 | 40% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Davis MillsQB | 0.7 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.4 | 0.0 | 13% | 6% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 37% | 57% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 42% | 26% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.0 | 81% | 86% | 7% | 13% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 47% | 50% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.
Q4 0:16 · Broncos · 3rd & goal at HOU 8 · gained nothing · -3.30 EP · −35.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 78 yards from the HOU 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Texans3Broncos0Texans9Broncos0Texans10Broncos0Texans13Broncos3Texans13Broncos3Texans16How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Broncos9Texans16Broncos10Texans16Broncos10Texans22Broncos16Texans22Broncos17Texans22How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/26 | 186 | 1 | 3 | 3 | −15.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 | +4.2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 29% | +0.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Locke | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/27 | 274 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +0.3 |
| Davis Mills | 1/1 | 18 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_13_DEN_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 39 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 15 |
| 3.8 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| −1.7 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 13% | +1.3 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −2.2 |
| Lucas Krull | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −3.3 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 1 | −3.3 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 9 | 12 | 191 | 1 | 44% | +12.1 |
| Brevin Jordan | 3 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 19% | +4.1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.4 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −2.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond King | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Anderson | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Maliek Collins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
