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Houston Texans 22, Broncos 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:16, 3rd and 8, on Jimmie Ward — 38.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:16 · 3rd and 8
Jimmie Ward
Texans
(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.
Dome
Texans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Houston Texans 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:16, Texans +38.5% win probability on one snap.
38.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell WilsonBroncosQ4 3:05(3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 25-S.Perine [96-M.Collins]. PENALTY on HOU-48-C.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play.
9.7pts
Javonte WilliamsBroncosQ4 2:00(2:00) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 21 for 1 yard (25-D.King).
16.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans won this one — 4 of 16 on third down, against Broncos at 0 of 11 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — -0.00 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Broncos at 5 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Broncos164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.
Swing +38.5 for TexansExpected points +3.30 for TexansThe model had Texans 3 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:16DEN +39% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.
4th · 2:00HOU +17% win prob(2:00) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 21 for 1 yard (25-D.King).
4th · 3:05HOU +10% win prob(3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 25-S.Perine [96-M.Collins]. PENALTY on HOU-48-C.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play.
3rd · 4:55HOU +9% win prob(4:55) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-5-J.Pitre, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 9:40DEN +9% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at HOU 27. 24-D.Stingley to HOU 27 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
3rd · 1:04DEN +8% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley (51-W.Anderson) at DEN 24. 24-D.Stingley to DEN 21 for 3 yards (84-C.Manhertz).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Ammendola's 29-yard field goal with 10:14 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:14Matt Ammendola·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+30–3
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Broncos: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.05Texans: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Broncos: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.00Texans: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.12Texans: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Texans’s 63 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Texans 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 15.2% in week 12 against 33.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.1% in week 12 against 22.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 12 against 48.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
HOU's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.9 pts in week 12 against −4.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Texans22.9%
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteDEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.4%, 10.4 points above their season mean of 21.1% and 1.2 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%60 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%60 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%60 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%60 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Full-time98%59 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time85%51 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation70%42 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation63%38 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational42%25 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational42%25 snaps
85Lucas KrullTE · Rotational37%22 snaps
19Marvin MimsWR · Rotational30%18 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Situational20%12 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Situational15%9 snaps
89Brandon JohnsonWR · Situational15%9 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational13%8 snaps
31Justin SimmonsFS · Situational2%1 snap
75Quinn BaileyG · Situational2%1 snap
60Luke WattenbergC · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Alex ForsythCRonnie PerkinsDEElijah GarciaDEThomas IncoomOLBBen DiNucciQBJ.L. SkinnerSSNate AdkinsTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jarrett StidhamQBCameron FlemingT
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive
69Shaquille MasonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
70Juice ScruggsC · Every snap100%68 snaps
77George FantT · Every snap100%68 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%68 snaps
63Michael DeiterC · Every snap100%68 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Full-time97%66 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Full-time81%55 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Full-time81%55 snaps
9Brevin JordanTE · Heavy rotation75%51 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Rotational47%32 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Rotational46%31 snaps
47Andrew BeckFB · Rotational40%27 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Rotational38%26 snaps
8John MetchieWR · Rotational35%24 snaps
81Eric SaubertTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational16%11 snaps
3Tank DellWR · Situational13%9 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Nick BroekerGMyjai SandersOLBCase KeenumQBMike BooneRBDalton SchultzTEXavier HutchinsonWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 85-L.Krull INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at HOU -6. Touchback.
Q4 0:16 · Broncos · 3rd & goal at HOU 8 · gained nothing · -3.30 EP · −35.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 78 yards from the HOU 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
37%
Yards
635
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0361%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.4964%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.2046%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0948%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 25
Broncos0Texans3
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 11
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
Broncos0Texans9
Broncos0Texans10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Broncos 3
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Texans 15
2nd quarter45 plays
Broncos0Texans13
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 20
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to midfield
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Texans 40
Broncos3Texans13
Field goal16 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Texans 14
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
Broncos3Texans16
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Broncos 20
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 31
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Broncos9Texans16
Broncos10Texans16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Texans 45
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 32
Intercepted1 play
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Broncos10Texans22
Touchdown3 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Broncos 3
Broncos16Texans22
Broncos17Texans22
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Texans 1
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
Intercepted2 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 36
Punt10 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Broncos 40
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted19 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Texans 8
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -3.5
Closing total
47.5
Broncos moneyline
+142
Texans moneyline
-170
Texans closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 39 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs DeMeco Ryans
1st · 12:14HOU +8% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 9-B.Jordan pushed ob at DEN 20 for 27 yards (23-F.Moreau).
1st · 8:11HOU +7% win prob(8:11) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins to DEN 26 for 52 yards (23-F.Moreau). DEN-2-P.Surtain was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
