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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 13
It turned at Q4 15:00, 1st and 10 — 8.8 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 33–28. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Lions +8.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Lions
(15:00) 4-D.Carr to NO 24 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at NO 26.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Lions at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(15:00) 4-D.Carr to NO 24 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at NO 26.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
David Montgomery's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 11:19 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 55 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Saints’s 66 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, Saints 4.
Saints outgained Lions 363-349 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's pass rate over expected, −16.7 pts, is past their previous low of −10.2 pts in week 12 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · −2.7σ from their own normal
NO's play-action rate, 22.6%, is past their previous high of 18.6% in week 4 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 59.6% in week 12 against 36.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 45.8% in week 12 against 11.1% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-13.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.2 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 54 snaps
Saints-16.7 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −14.1 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−2.66× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 83%
Tendencies room →Lions36.6%leaned — ran early · −16.1 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 41 early downs
Saints37.7%leaned — ran early · −15.5 vs their 53.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions29.6%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Saints22.6%leaned — faked the run · +9.5 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.4%.
Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 63%
Tendencies room →Lions32.3%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Saints11.1%inside their normal wobble · −9.6 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Lions22.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Saints14.8%inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -16.7 pts, 14.1 points below their season mean of -2.6 pts and 2.7 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
17/22, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
7.3 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected
Passing · DET
16/25, 213 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.5 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Sam LaPorta banked 11.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPortaTE · Alpha Receiver | 29.0 | +11.6 | 81% | 85% | 36% | 46% | 9/9, 140 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 28.9 | +3.7 | 58% | 61% | 28% | 5% | 14 car, 51 yd, 2 TD · 6/8, 58 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.9 | +3.4 | 61% | 87% | 28% | 57% | 5/8, 119 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 16.3 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 213 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 15.4 | −5.8 | 42% | — | 7% | 0% | 0/2, 0 yd · 13 car, 59 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | 0.0 | 79% | 93% | 24% | 28% | 2/6, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| David MontgomeryRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.5 | −4.2 | 62% | 56% | 8% | 2% | 18 car, 56 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +7.1 | 57% | 63% | 4% | 6% | 1 car, 19 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 8.9 | +1.0 | 63% | — | 0% | — | 17/22, 226 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Jimmy GrahamTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +3.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | 6.4 | −1.5 | 45% | 52% | 8% | 0% | 8 car, 60 yd · 1/2, -6 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +1.7 | 60% | 39% | 7% | 4% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| A.T. PerryWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.2 | 61% | 58% | 10% | 23% | 1/3, 30 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB | 2.6 | −0.8 | 33% | 42% | 3% | 0% | 5 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −4.8 | 76% | 89% | 12% | 18% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 40% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB | 1.6 | 0.0 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 2/5, 41 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | +0.2 | 22% | 15% | 0% | — | 1 car, 9 yd |
| Lynn BowdenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −2.3 | 72% | 65% | 3% | 2% | 2 car, -6 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 21% | 22% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | — | 13% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.6 | 57% | 68% | 10% | 6% | 0/3, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) 4-D.Carr to NO 24 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at NO 26.
Q4 15:00 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 25 · gained nothing · -5.90 EP · −12.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 85 yards from the DET 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions6
Saints0Lions7Saints0How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, dropped.
Lions13Saints0Lions14Saints0Lions20Saints0Lions21Saints0Lions21Saints6Lions21Saints7Lions24Saints7Lions24Saints13Lions24Saints14Lions24Saints20Lions24Saints21Lions27Saints21How the play was built
A man in motion.
Lions33Saints21Lions33Saints27Lions33Saints28How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 16/25 | 213 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 | +1.5 |
| David Montgomery | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 1 | −3.9 |
| Jameson Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 9 | 9 | 140 | 1 | 36% | +11.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Barnes | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 17/22 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +7.3 |
| Jameis Winston | 2/5 | 41 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_13_DET_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -4 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 61 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 19 |
| 19.0 |
| 1 |
| +2.4 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| +1.3 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 12% | −0.7 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +2.1 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 8% | −2.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 8% | −2.4 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Jerry Jacobs | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tracy Walker III | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alim McNeill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Bohanna | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −5.9 |
| Lynn Bowden | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 8 | 119 | 0 | 28% | +8.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 | 28% | +5.6 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 10% | +0.5 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 7% | +2.0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | −0.0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −8.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulson Adebo | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nephi Sewell | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Roach | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
