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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Lions163 of 172 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 4-D.Carr to NO 24 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at NO 26.
Swing −8.8 for SaintsExpected points −5.90 for SaintsThe model had Saints 8 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00DET +9% win prob(15:00) 4-D.Carr to NO 24 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at NO 26.
4th · 3:01DET +8% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave.
4th · 2:48NO +8% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to NO 47 for 10 yards (31-J.Howden).
3rd · 2:59NO +7% win prob(2:59) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at NO 14 for 48 yards (29-P.Adebo).
4th · 3:07DET +7% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara.
1st · 11:15DET +6% win prob(11:15) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at NO 30. 32-B.Branch to NO 17 for 13 yards (74-J.Hurst).
3rd · 5:30
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 11:19 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:19David Montgomery·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st10:28Sam LaPorta·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+714–0
1st8:21Amon-Ra St. Brown·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+721–0
Saints ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Lions: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.19Saints: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.24Saints: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 55 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Saints’s 66 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, Saints 4.
NoteSaints outgained Lions 363-349 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, −16.7 pts, is past their previous low of −10.2 pts in week 12 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.7 times their own weekly swing below their number.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
NO's play-action rate, 22.6%, is past their previous high of 18.6% in week 4 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 59.6% in week 12 against 36.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 45.8% in week 12 against 11.1% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Saints14.8%
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -16.7 pts, 14.1 points below their season mean of -2.6 pts and 2.7 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr to−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) 4-D.Carr to NO 24 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NO 25, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at NO 26.
Q4 15:00 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 25 · gained nothing · -5.90 EP · −12.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 85 yards from the DET 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
709
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2058%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0242%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.7550%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1443%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2133%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.0980%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
Lions6Saints0
Lions7Saints0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Saints 2
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Lions13Saints0
Lions14Saints0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 13
Punt5 plays
Lions20Saints0
Lions21Saints0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Saints 25
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 32
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Lions 48
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 36
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 23
2nd quarter42 plays
Lions21Saints6
Lions21Saints7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Lions 6
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 18
Lions24Saints7
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Saints 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Lions24Saints13
Lions24Saints14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Lions 2
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 30
Lions24Saints20
Lions24Saints21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Lions 1
Lions27Saints21
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Saints 8
4th quarter44 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Lions33Saints21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 19
Lions33Saints27
Lions33Saints28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Lions 1
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Lions 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Saints 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
