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Indianapolis Colts 31 at Tennessee Titans 28. Final.
Colts -1.5 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 13
Indianapolis Colts 31, Titans 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 3:05, 1st and 10, on Alec Pierce — 47.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:05 · 1st and 10
Alec Pierce
Colts
(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 4 for 55 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting). TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play.
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Indianapolis Colts 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:05, Colts +47.0% win probability on one snap.
47.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetColtsQ3 0:26(:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 20-N.Cross, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-41-G.Stuard at TEN 18. 41-G.Stuard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetTitansQ4 1:19(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
20.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 17 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 14 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Colts198 of 209 plays carry both curves
(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 4 for 55 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting). TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play.
Swing −47.0 for TitansExpected points −4.13 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 206
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:05TEN +47% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 4 for 55 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting). TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play.
3rd · 0:26IND +25% win prob(:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 20-N.Cross, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-41-G.Stuard at TEN 18. 41-G.Stuard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:19IND +21% win prob(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
Overtime · 8:11TEN +17% win prob(8:11) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins. PENALTY on IND-40-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at TEN 34 - No Play.
Overtime · 4:24IND +16% win prob(4:24) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-17-R.Tannehill.
2nd · 2:50TEN +14% win prob(2:50) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 83-K.Granson to TEN 6 for 46 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Pittman's 4-yard touchdown catch with 2:34 left in overtime put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Titans ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.03Titans: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Colts: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Colts: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.02Titans: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 68 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Titans’s 80 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Titans 4.
NoteTitans outgained Colts 382-359 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 27.5%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −0.7 pts in week 12 against −10.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
80 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 12 against 12.5% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
8 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +11.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Titans14.6%
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.5%, 11.4 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 1.9 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%71 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%71 snaps
75Will FriesG · Every snap100%71 snaps
10Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%71 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Every snap99%70 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time96%68 snaps
73Blake FreelandT · Full-time96%68 snaps
21Zack MossRB · Full-time94%67 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation68%48 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational39%28 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational34%24 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational34%24 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational18%13 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational8%6 snaps
2D.J. MontgomeryWR · Situational4%3 snaps
31Tyler GoodsonRB · Situational4%3 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Situational4%3 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Julius BrentsCBIsaiah LandDEJack AndersonGArlington HambrightGCameron McGroneMLBJonathan TaylorRBJuwann WinfreeWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
G.Minshew pass+47% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 4 for 55 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting). TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play.
OT 3:05 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 41 · gained 55 · +4.13 EP · +47.0% win probability
196 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 209 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 196 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 203. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 12 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
209 of 209 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
209
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
736
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0170%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1658%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.4352%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1058%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0317%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
209 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
209 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Colts0Titans6
Colts0Titans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Colts 22
Colts6Titans7
Colts7Titans7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Titans 36
Punt12 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 46
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 29
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 45
Colts7Titans10
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Colts 6
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt3 plays
Colts7Titans16
Colts7Titans17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Colts 5
Colts10Titans17
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 5
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 32
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended12 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Titans 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Titans 11
Colts13Titans17
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Titans 28
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Colts16Titans17
Field goal20 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 5
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 28
Colts22Titans17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 36
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Colts22Titans19
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 30
Colts25Titans19
Field goal4 plays, from the Titans 7 to the Titans 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Colts25Titans25
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 3
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 28
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 32
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 39
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Colts 46
The period ended3 plays
Overtime22 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Colts25Titans28
Field goal14 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Colts31Titans28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -1.5
Closing total
42
Colts moneyline
-122
Titans moneyline
+102
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 42; the game landed 59 — over by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 58°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the west; mainly clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Colts 7 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Mike Vrabel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 1:55IND +13% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at TEN 9 for -4 yards (96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (96-D.Autry) [96-D.Autry], RECOVERED by TEN-24-E.Molden at TEN 8. 24-E.Molden to TEN 9 for 1 yard (78-R.Kelly).
Overtime · 6:38TEN +13% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 32-T.Spears left guard to IND 38 for 6 yards (23-K.Moore, 44-Z.Franklin). IND-45-E.Speed was injured during the play.
