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2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Nissan Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

31

Tennessee Titans

28

IND -1.5 ✓O 42 ✓

Indianapolis Colts 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:05, TEN +47% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4TEN ↑IND ↓
OT · 3:05IND 25 — TEN 28IND ball · 1st & 10TEN 56%

(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 4 for 55 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting). TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 3:05TEN +47% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 4 for 55 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting). TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play.
  2. Q3 · 0:26IND +25% win prob(:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 20-N.Cross, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-41-G.Stuard at TEN 18. 41-G.Stuard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 1:19IND +21% win prob(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
  4. OT · 8:11TEN +17% win prob(8:11) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins. PENALTY on IND-40-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at TEN 34 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:26TEN Touchdown

    (13:26) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 0 — TEN 7
  2. Q1 · 12:12IND Touchdown

    (12:12) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 7
  3. Q1 · 0:17TEN Field goal

    (:17) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 10
  4. Q2 · 10:25TEN Touchdown

    (10:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 17
  5. Q2 · 7:42IND Field goal

    (7:42) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — TEN 17
  6. Q2 · 0:09IND Field goal

    (:09) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — TEN 17
  7. Q3 · 4:59IND Field goal

    (4:59) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 16 — TEN 17
  8. Q3 · 0:26IND Touchdown

    (:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 20-N.Cross, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-41-G.Stuard at TEN 18. 41-G.Stuard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 22 — TEN 17
  9. Q3 · 0:19TEN Two-point

    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-G.Minshew pass to 21-Z.Moss is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 37-A.Hooker intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

    Score after this play: IND 22 — TEN 19
  10. Q4 · 11:36IND Field goal

    (11:36) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 25 — TEN 19
  11. Q4 · 5:29TEN Touchdown

    (5:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 25 — TEN 25
  12. OT · 4:24TEN Field goal

    (4:24) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-17-R.Tannehill.

    Score after this play: IND 25 — TEN 28
  13. OT · 2:34IND Touchdown

    (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 31 — TEN 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsTitans
Offensive plays6880
Total yards359382 (edge)
Yards per play5.3 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play-0.010.03 (edge)
Success rate43% (edge)41%
Dropback rate71%50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.010.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.02 (edge)
Third downs3/146/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)47 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1624 (edge)
Sacks taken3 (edge)6
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Titans outgained Colts 382–359 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

26/42, 312 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

16/33, 224 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.1 expected points added · -12.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

21 att, 102 yds, 2 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Tyjae SpearsRB

16 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

11/16 for 105 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

3/6 for 100 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 366641:40Touchdown +7
2INDIND 445411:15Touchdown +7
3TENTEN 2510293:43Punt
4INDIND 20491:24Punt
5TENTEN 305152:54Fumble
6TENTEN 4810463:51Field goal +3
7INDIND 25550:32Punt
8TENTEN 239774:19Touchdown +7
9INDIND 259552:43Field goal +3
10TENTEN 25571:39Punt
11INDIND 1210754:12Fumble
12TENTEN 9421:05Punt
13INDTEN 446160:39Field goal +3
14TENTEN 25200:04End of half
15INDIND 25207010:03Field goal +3
16TENTEN 25541:28Punt
17INDIND 20481:30Punt
18TENTEN 30461:40Defensive touchdown
19TENTEN 255-141:37Fumble
20INDTEN 74-32:08Field goal +3
21TENTEN 2513806:08Touchdown +6
22INDIND 25531:22Punt
23TENTEN 22581:37Punt
24INDIND 30491:14Punt
25TENTEN 217191:00Punt
26INDIND 22200:13Turnover on downs
27TENTEN 2511395:41Field goal +3
28INDIND 256711:48Touchdown +6

11 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew26/423122032.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zack Moss19512.70-4.2
Gardner Minshew320.70-1.5
Kylen Granson122.002.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman1116105139%6.4
Alec Pierce36100115%5.7
Kylen Granson337207%3.9
Josh Downs3514012%-1.8
Tyler Goodson221105%0.1
Zack Moss23607%-3.9
Will Mallory244010%0.4
Trey Sermon01002%-0.5
Andrew Ogletree01002%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed620.000
Dayo Odeyingbo430.000
Julian Blackmon510.000
Jaylon Jones510.001
DeForest Buckner330.501
Kwity Paye322.000
Darrell Baker410.002
Nick Cross410.001
Kenny Moore410.000
Samson Ebukam412.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Will Levis16/332241060.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry211024.923.4
Tyjae Spears16754.701.0
Will Levis252.501.6
DeAndre Hopkins144.000.2
Chigoziem Okonkwo122.00-0.4
Ryan Stonehouse1-11-11.00-3.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Hopkins51275136%-0.7
Chigoziem Okonkwo3662018%1.8
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine132809%0.8
Derrick Henry121806%0.4
Josh Whyle121606%0.6
Tyjae Spears4613018%-1.0
Chris Moore111203%2.0
Trevon Wesco01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Gibbens840.001
Azeez Al-Shaair541.000
Harold Landry440.500
Sean Murphy-Bunting500.000
Amani Hooker410.002
Roger McCreary320.001
Elijah Molden200.000
Monty Rice110.000
K'Von Wallace110.000
Denico Autry111.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -1.5
Closing total
42
IND moneyline
-122
TEN moneyline
+102

Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 42; the game landed 59 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
53°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
IND 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.