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2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Lambeau Field

Kansas City Chiefs

19

Green Bay PackersWinner

27

KC -5.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓31°F

Green Bay Packers 27–19. Biggest swing: Q4 5:20, KC +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑KC ↓
Q4 · 5:20KC 19 — GB 24KC ball · 1st & 10GB 59%

(5:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 24-S.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB 33. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 35 for 2 yards (24-S.Moore).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 5:20KC +20% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 24-S.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB 33. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 35 for 2 yards (24-S.Moore).
  2. Q3 · 6:56GB +12% win prob(6:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to KC 11 for 33 yards (20-J.Reid).
  3. Q3 · 5:28GB +11% win prob(5:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined.
  4. Q3 · 0:47GB +10% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle to GB 1 for 13 yards (25-K.Nixon, 35-C.Ballentine).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:17GB Touchdown

    (7:17) 70-R.Newman reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love pass short right to 89-B.Sims for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — GB 7
  2. Q1 · 0:01KC Field goal

    (:01) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 3 — GB 7
  3. Q2 · 10:44GB Touchdown

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 3 — GB 14
  4. Q2 · 2:23KC Field goal

    (2:23) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 6 — GB 14
  5. Q3 · 9:41KC Touchdown

    (9:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Illegal Substitution, declined.

    Score after this play: KC 12 — GB 14
  6. Q3 · 5:28GB Touchdown

    (5:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 12 — GB 21
  7. Q4 · 14:55KC Touchdown

    (14:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 19 — GB 21
  8. Q4 · 6:07GB Field goal

    (6:07) 17-A.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: KC 19 — GB 24
  9. Q4 · 1:14GB Field goal

    (1:14) 17-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: KC 19 — GB 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsPackers
Offensive plays6163
Total yards338382 (edge)
Yards per play5.56.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.170.30 (edge)
Success rate49%49% (edge)
Dropback rate64%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.150.42 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)0.11
Third downs7/11 (edge)5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps2424
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

25/36, 267 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.4 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

21/33, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.9 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

18 att, 110 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

18 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

4/5 for 81 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

4/5 for 72 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 2515757:47Touchdown +7
2KCKC 2414707:13Field goal +3
3GBGB 2510754:21Touchdown +7
4KCKC 2515698:20Field goal +3
5GBGB 2310432:10Punt
6KCKC 3100:09End of half
7KCKC 2511905:21Touchdown +6
8GBGB 339674:16Touchdown +7
9KCKC 3413615:32Touchdown +7
10GBGB 259223:15Punt
11KCKC 19420:55Punt
12GBGB 2311654:38Field goal +3
13KCKC 25390:49Interception
14GBGB 3511354:05Field goal +3
15KCKC 3011371:09Defensive touchdown

9 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes21/332101133.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco181106.114.0
Patrick Mahomes4266.501.7
Clyde Edwards-Helaire263.000.7
Kadarius Toney166.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce4581017%7.5
Rashee Rice8964030%2.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling2525017%1.8
Isiah Pacheco3413013%-0.5
Richie James121207%-0.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire12807%-0.8
Skyy Moore12507%-2.8
Noah Gray11213%1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Justin Reid810.000
Bryan Cook510.000
Mike Edwards240.000
Trent McDuffie230.000
Willie Gay220.000
L'Jarius Sneed300.000
Michael Danna211.000
Jack Cochrane300.000
Chamarri Conner210.000
Charles Omenihu121.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love25/3626730215.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
A.J. Dillon18734.100.8
Patrick Taylor22914.501.6
Christian Watson2157.500.3
Jordan Love2105.001.5
James Robinson122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs4572014%6.2
Christian Watson7971226%7.1
Dontayvion Wicks3443011%3.4
Tucker Kraft3637017%1.2
Jayden Reed4516014%-1.8
Malik Heath121506%1.0
A.J. Dillon111403%0.9
Ben Sims11113%0.7
Patrick Taylor01003%-0.2
James Robinson11-203%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quay Walker390.000
Corey Ballentine450.000
Kenny Clark230.500
Jonathan Owens500.000
De'Vondre Campbell130.000
Rashan Gary040.500
Darnell Savage400.001
Kingsley Enagbare120.000
Keisean Nixon120.011
Tedarrell Slaton030.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -5.5
Closing total
43.5
KC moneyline
-265
GB moneyline
+215

Chiefs closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 46 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
31°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
KC 7 days · GB 10 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Matt LaFleur