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Kansas City Chiefs 19 at Green Bay Packers 27. Final.
Chiefs -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 13
Green Bay Packers 27, Chiefs 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:20, 1st and 10, on Keisean Nixon — 20.0 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:20 · 1st and 10
Keisean Nixon
Packers
(5:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 24-S.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB 33. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 35 for 2 yards (24-S.Moore).
O 43.5 ✓
31°F
Chiefs closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 27–19. Biggest swing: Q4 5:20, Packers +20.0% win probability on one snap.
20.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Romeo DoubsPackersQ3 6:56(6:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to KC 11 for 33 yards (20-J.Reid).
12.3pts
Christian WatsonPackersQ3 5:28(5:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined.
10.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 11 on third down, against Packers at 5 of 10 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.42 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at +0.15 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.30 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at +0.17 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Chiefs158 of 171 plays carry both curves
(5:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 24-S.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB 33. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 35 for 2 yards (24-S.Moore).
Swing +20.0 for PackersExpected points +4.00 for PackersThe model had Packers 12 points higher than the market did.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:20KC +20% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 24-S.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB 33. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 35 for 2 yards (24-S.Moore).
3rd · 6:56GB +12% win prob(6:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to KC 11 for 33 yards (20-J.Reid).
3rd · 5:28GB +11% win prob(5:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 0:47GB +10% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle to GB 1 for 13 yards (25-K.Nixon, 35-C.Ballentine).
4th · 9:55GB +9% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs to GB 44 for 27 yards (20-J.Reid).
2nd · 10:44GB +9% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ben Sims's 1-yard touchdown catch with 7:17 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:17Ben Sims·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+70–7
1st0:01Harrison Butker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–7
2nd10:44Christian Watson·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+73–14
2nd2:23Harrison Butker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+36–14
3rd9:41Isiah Pacheco·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+612–14
3rd5:28Christian Watson·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+712–21
4th14:55Noah Gray·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+719–21
4th6:07Anders Carlson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+319–24
4th1:14Anders Carlson·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+319–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryPackers
Chiefs2–6Packers
338Total yards382
5.5Yards per play6.1
49%Success rate49%
64%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
24First downs24
3Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.30Packers: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Chiefs: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.42Packers: +0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Chiefs: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.11Packers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 61 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Packers’s 63 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.8 pts in week 12 against −1.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Packers12.8%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteGB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 12.7 points above their season mean of 23.2% and 1.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 24-S.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB 33. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 35 for 2 yards (24-S.Moore).
Q4 5:20 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at GB 49 · gained nothing · -4.00 EP · −12.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 75 yards from the GB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
45%
Yards
719
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1663%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3865%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.2350%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2558%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Chiefs0Packers6
Chiefs0Packers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs3Packers7
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Packers 5
2nd quarter42 plays
Chiefs3Packers13
Chiefs3Packers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Chiefs 9
Chiefs6Packers14
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Packers 8
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Chiefs 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Chiefs12Packers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chiefs12Packers20
Chiefs12Packers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Chiefs 11
The period ended13 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Packers 1
4th quarter61 plays
Chiefs18Packers21
Chiefs19Packers21
Touchdown3 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 47
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Chiefs 21
Chiefs19Packers24
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Chiefs 18
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Packers 49
Chiefs19Packers27
Field goal15 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Chiefs 20
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Packers 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
