2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Gillette Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

New England Patriots

LAC -4.5 ✓U 38.5 ✓Chargers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Los Angeles Chargers 6–0. Biggest swing: Q4 7:03, LAC +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:03LAC 6 — NE 0NE ball · 4th & 5LAC 81%

(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at LAC 38 for -8 yards (3-D.James).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:03LAC +12% win prob(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at LAC 38 for -8 yards (3-D.James).
Q1 · 4:25LAC +11% win prob(4:25) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LAC 32 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 33. NE-38-R.Stevenson was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q4 · 9:40NE +10% win prob(9:40) 11-T.Thornton left end to LAC 35 for 39 yards (3-D.James).
Q2 · 12:14LAC +8% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott left end to NE 11 for -6 yards (56-M.Fox).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 9:13LAC Field goal
(9:13) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — NE 0
Q2 · 0:48LAC Field goal
(:48) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 6 — NE 0

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Patriots
Offensive plays	59	62
Total yards	243	257 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	4.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	41% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	64%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47	-0.16 (edge)
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Patriots outgained Chargers 257–243 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/37, 212 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

13/25, 141 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-15.7 expected points added · -11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Ezekiel ElliottRB

17 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

9 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

DeVante ParkerWR

4/9 for 64 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

5/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	5	1:36	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 27	4	5	1:29	Punt
3	NE	NE 13	13	59	7:42	Fumble
4	LAC	LAC 33	4	8	1:53	Punt
5	NE	NE 6	4	6	1:04	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 18	7	49	2:43	Punt
7	NE	NE 9	4	2	1:58	Punt
8	LAC	NE 47	7	27	2:26	Field goal +3
9	NE	NE 25	7	31	2:13	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 17	10	22	4:54	Punt
11	NE	NE 9	4	-1	0:28	Punt
12	LAC	NE 27	4	7	0:50	Field goal +3
13	NE	NE 13	2	6	0:44	End of half
14	LAC	LAC 25	5	0	0:24	Punt
15	NE	NE 18	12	37	6:03	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 7	12	57	5:10	Punt
17	NE	NE 2	8	46	3:29	Punt
18	LAC	LAC 26	8	24	4:41	Punt
19	NE	NE 20	6	42	3:15	Turnover on downs
20	LAC	LAC 38	6	22	2:22	Punt
21	NE	NE 13	7	24	2:38	Turnover on downs
22	LAC	NE 42	5	22	1:58	End of game

2 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 59 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	22/37	212	0	0	0	2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Austin Ekeler	14	18	1.3	-5.8
Joshua Kelley	6	16	2.7	-1.9
Justin Herbert	4	-5	-1.3	-6.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	5	9	58	25%	1.8
Quentin Johnston	5	7	52	19%	2.0
Gerald Everett	4	5	44	14%	2.6
Alex Erickson	1	1	23	3%	2.6
Donald Parham	2	4	12	11%	-1.7
Austin Ekeler	2	3	9	8%	-0.8
Joshua Kelley	2	3	9	8%	-0.8
Jalen Guyton	1	3	5	8%	-2.2
Stone Smartt	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	6	4	1.0	0
Derwin James	7	2	1.0	0
Deane Leonard	6	2	0.0	1
Kenneth Murray	4	2	0.0	0
Asante Samuel	4	1	0.0	1
Khalil Mack	5	0	2.0	0
Austin Johnson	3	1	0.0	0
Essang Bassey	1	2	0.0	1
Nicholas Williams	1	2	0.0	0
Justin Hollins	1	0	1.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	13/25	141	0	0	5	-15.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	17	52	3.1	-5.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	9	39	4.3	-2.3
Tyquan Thornton	1	39	39.0	2.6
Bailey Zappe	4	16	4.0	3.9
Ty Montgomery	1	2	2.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	4	9	64	38%	0.0
Ezekiel Elliott	4	5	40	21%	1.0
Hunter Henry	2	4	15	17%	-1.2
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	3	11	13%	-1.2
Jalen Reagor	1	1	11	4%	-0.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	1	0	4%	-0.6
Tyquan Thornton	0	1	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	1	7	0
Jahlani Tavai	3	4	0
Kyle Dugger	2	3	0
Jonathan Jones	3	2	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	1	0
J.C. Jackson	3	1	2
Myles Bryant	3	0	1
Anfernee Jennings	2	1	0
Keion White	1	2	0
Jalen Mills	0	3	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -4.5
Closing total: 38.5
LAC moneyline: -225
NE moneyline: +185

Chargers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 6 — under by 32.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LAC 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs Bill Belichick