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Los Angeles Chargers 6 at New England Patriots 0. Final.
Chargers -4.5 ✓U 38.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 13
Los Angeles Chargers 6, Patriots 0 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:03, 4th and 5, on Bailey Zappe — 11.7 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:03 · 4th and 5
Bailey Zappe
Chargers
(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at LAC 38 for -8 yards (3-D.James).
Chargers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Los Angeles Chargers 6–0. Biggest swing: Q4 7:03, Chargers +11.7% win probability on one snap.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rhamondre StevensonChargersQ1 4:25(4:25) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LAC 32 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 33. NE-38-R.Stevenson was injured during the play. He is Out.
10.5pts
Tyquan ThorntonPatriotsQ4 9:40(9:40) 11-T.Thornton left end to LAC 35 for 39 yards (3-D.James).
9.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 1 giveaway.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — -0.15 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.27 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Chargers153 of 162 plays carry both curves
(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at LAC 38 for -8 yards (3-D.James).
Swing −11.7 for PatriotsExpected points −3.47 for PatriotsModel and market agree here.play 139
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:03LAC +12% win prob(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at LAC 38 for -8 yards (3-D.James).
1st · 4:25LAC +11% win prob(4:25) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LAC 32 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 33. NE-38-R.Stevenson was injured during the play. He is Out.
4th · 9:40NE +10% win prob(9:40) 11-T.Thornton left end to LAC 35 for 39 yards (3-D.James).
2nd · 12:14LAC +8% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott left end to NE 11 for -6 yards (56-M.Fox).
2nd · 11:45NE +7% win prob(11:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to LAC 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at NE 47 for 8 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
4th · 2:05LAC +7% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 85-H.Henry (27-E.Bassey).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 38-yard field goal with 9:13 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd9:13Cameron Dicker·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+33–0
2nd0:48Cameron Dicker·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+36–0
2 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryPatriots
Chargers5–3Patriots
243Total yards257
4.1Yards per play4.1
41%Success rate39%
33%Third-down rate29%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays4
13First downs11
0Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Chargers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.27Patriots: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Chargers: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.37Patriots: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.47Chargers: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.16Patriots: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 59 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Patriots’s 62 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Patriots 0.
NotePatriots outgained Chargers 257-243 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 5.3%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 12.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteNE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 30.3%, 14.6 points above their season mean of 15.7% and 1.9 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Stevenson up−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:25) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LAC 32 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 33. NE-38-R.Stevenson was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q1 4:25 · Patriots · 2nd & 5 at LAC 31 · lost 2 · -4.96 EP · −13.4% win probability
151 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
2 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 57 yards from the LAC 7 for a punt. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.20
Success rate
36%
Yards
498
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.4253%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1869%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0852%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0639%
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 30
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Chargers 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost15 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Chargers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 12
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Patriots 49
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 46 to the Patriots 38
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 17
Chargers3Patriots0
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 20
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chargers 44
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 46
Punt6 plays
Chargers6Patriots0
Field goal4 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Chargers 32
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Punt13 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Patriots 34
The period ended9 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Patriots 48
4th quarter38 plays
Punt1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Patriots 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Chargers 28
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 38 to the Patriots 45
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Patriots 42
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Patriots 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
