For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Seahawks191 of 203 plays carry both curves
(7:08) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle to DAL 46 for no gain (90-D.Lawrence).
Swing +16.6 for CowboysExpected points +3.51 for CowboysThe model had Seahawks 9 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:08SEA +17% win prob(7:08) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle to DAL 46 for no gain (90-D.Lawrence).
1st · 7:37DAL +14% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:08SEA +13% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.
3rd · 0:01DAL +11% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 26-Z.Charbonnet to DAL 6 for 39 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
3rd · 10:05DAL +11% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 3:02SEA +10% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at SEA 38. 26-D.Bland to SEA 38 for no gain (16-T.Lockett).
4th · 13:45
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Ferguson's 12-yard touchdown catch with 4:41 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:13Brandon Aubrey·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+30–3
4th11:27Brandon Aubrey·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+335–30
4th4:41Jake Ferguson·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point goodLead never changed again+835–38
4th1:46Brandon Aubrey·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+335–41
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryCowboys
Seahawks4–4Cowboys
406Total yards414
6.4Yards per play5.3
44%Success rate50%
64%Third-down rate57%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays4
20First downs28
1Sacks taken4
1Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.18Cowboys: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Seahawks: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.30Cowboys: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Seahawks: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.01Cowboys: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 63 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 78 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Cowboys 8.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
SEA's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 4 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 13.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.8 points.
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 12 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Cowboys14.3%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteSEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 74.3 points above their season mean of 25.7% and 2.3 times their own 32.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%69 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%69 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Full-time97%67 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time90%62 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time88%61 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+23% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 7:37 · Seahawks · 3rd & 8 at SEA 27 · gained 73 · +7.23 EP · +23.4% win probability
190 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 203 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 198. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
203 of 203 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
203
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
46%
Yards
819
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.0658%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3173%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1144%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.8383%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0267%
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
203 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
203 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Seahawks0Cowboys3
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Seahawks6Cowboys3
Seahawks7Cowboys3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 32
Seahawks7Cowboys9
Seahawks7Cowboys10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 15
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
No good11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 18
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 44
2nd quarter59 plays
Seahawks7Cowboys16
Seahawks7Cowboys17
Touchdown11 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 2
Seahawks13Cowboys17
Seahawks14Cowboys17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 1
Seahawks14Cowboys20
Field goal21 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 3
Seahawks20Cowboys20
Seahawks21Cowboys20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Seahawks27Cowboys20
Seahawks28Cowboys20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Seahawks28Cowboys26
Seahawks28Cowboys27
Touchdown19 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Cowboys 45
4th quarter56 plays
Seahawks34Cowboys27
Seahawks35Cowboys27
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Cowboys 3
Seahawks35Cowboys30
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Seahawks35Cowboys36
Seahawks35Cowboys38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Seahawks 7
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 49
Seahawks35Cowboys41
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 14
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to midfield
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -9.5
Closing total
47.5
Seahawks moneyline
+380
Cowboys moneyline
-500
Cowboys closed -9.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 76 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Mike McCarthy
DAL +9% win prob
(13:45) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb. PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Defensive Pass Interference, 35 yards, enforced at DAL 31 - No Play.
2nd · 0:04SEA +8% win prob5-J.Myers kicks 44 yards from SEA 35 to DAL 21. 40-H.Luepke to DAL 36 for 15 yards (38-B.Russell).
