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2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

42

Philadelphia Eagles

19

SF -3 ✓O 46.5 ✓44 mph wind

San Francisco 49ers 42–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:11, PHI +11% win probability on one snap. Played in 44 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PHI ↑SF ↓
Q1 · 14:11SF 0 — PHI 0PHI ball · 3rd & 9SF 64%

(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:11PHI +11% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).
  2. Q2 · 6:18PHI +9% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 37 for 21 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 7-C.Ward).
  3. Q2 · 7:15PHI +9% win prob(7:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  4. Q3 · 4:04PHI +7% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:54PHI Field goal

    (9:54) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: SF 0 — PHI 3
  2. Q1 · 2:05PHI Field goal

    (2:05) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. Penalty on SF-5-R.Gregory, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: SF 0 — PHI 6
  3. Q2 · 7:15SF Touchdown

    (7:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 6
  4. Q2 · 0:41SF Touchdown

    (:41) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — PHI 6
  5. Q3 · 11:48SF Touchdown

    (11:48) 19-D.Samuel right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — PHI 6
  6. Q3 · 6:53PHI Touchdown

    (6:53) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — PHI 13
  7. Q3 · 4:04SF Touchdown

    (4:04) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 28 — PHI 13
  8. Q4 · 10:50SF Touchdown

    (10:50) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 35 — PHI 13
  9. Q4 · 5:39PHI Touchdown

    (5:39) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SF 35 — PHI 19
  10. Q4 · 5:27SF Touchdown

    (5:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 42 — PHI 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersEagles
Offensive plays5670
Total yards457 (edge)333
Yards per play8.2 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play0.53 (edge)0.06
Success rate61% (edge)34%
Dropback rate54%81%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.76 (edge)0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.19
Third downs8/11 (edge)8/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)22
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers00

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.53 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

19/27, 314 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

22.3 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

26/45, 298 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

17 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

7 att, 20 yds, 1 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

4/4 for 116 yds, 2 TD

16% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

8/13 for 114 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PHIPHI 2513675:09Field goal +3
2SFSF 275-21:02Punt
3PHIPHI 2612536:48Field goal +3
4SFSF 255-41:01Punt
5PHIPHI 33481:49Punt
6SFSF 1512887:01Touchdown +7
7PHIPHI 258142:33Punt
8SFSF 1011853:59Touchdown +7
9PHIPHI 25330:38End of half
10SFSF 259753:19Touchdown +7
11PHIPHI 4212564:50Touchdown +7
12SFSF 237772:57Touchdown +7
13PHIPHI 25571:30Punt
14SFSF 2513756:41Touchdown +7
15PHIPHI 2915655:10Touchdown +6
16SFPHI 484520:14Touchdown +7
17PHIPHI 1511603:12Turnover on downs
18SFSF 304112:07End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy19/2731440222.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey17935.515.6
Deebo Samuel3227.311.9
Elijah Mitchell3134.30-0.1
Jordan Mason2105.00-0.7
Brock Purdy294.500.6
Sam Darnold1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel44116216%10.9
George Kittle4668024%3.2
Brandon Aiyuk5746128%5.1
Jauan Jennings3444116%5.6
Christian McCaffrey3440016%1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw250.000
Ambry Thomas610.003
Nick Bosa240.000
Ji'Ayir Brown510.000
Tashaun Gipson500.000
Charvarius Ward410.004
Oren Burks320.000
Javon Kinlaw222.000
Fred Warner210.000
Charlie Woerner110.000

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts26/452981039.3
Marcus Mariota2/316000-0.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jalen Hurts7202.91-2.1
D'Andre Swift6132.20-2.8
Marcus Mariota263.001.4
Kenneth Gainwell252.50-0.7
Boston Scott122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
A.J. Brown813114031%8.2
DeVonta Smith91196126%6.5
Kenneth Gainwell5642014%2.6
Quez Watkins3428010%1.5
Boston Scott112702%2.7
D'Andre Swift267014%-3.1
Albert Okwuegbunam01002%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nicholas Morrow430.000
Reed Blankenship340.000
Christian Elliss420.000
Kevin Byard230.000
Darius Slay400.000
Jordan Davis120.001
Jalen Carter210.000
Haason Reddick110.500
Josh Sweat110.000
Eli Ricks110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -3
Closing total
46.5
SF moneyline
-148
PHI moneyline
+124

49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 61 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
52°F, wind 44 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
SF 10 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Nick Sirianni

Wind at 44 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.