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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
49ersSan Francisco42
BY 23final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia19
San Francisco 49ers 42 at Philadelphia Eagles 19. Final.
49ers -3 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 13
San Francisco 49ers 42, Eagles 19 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:11, 3rd and 9, on A.J. Brown — 10.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:11 · 3rd and 9
A.J. Brown
Eagles
(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.
San Francisco 49ers 42–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:11, Eagles +10.7% win probability on one snap.
10.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon Aiyuk49ersQ2 7:15(7:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
8.6pts
DeVonta SmithEaglesQ2 6:18(6:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 37 for 21 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 7-C.Ward).
9.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.53 expected points per snap, against Eagles at +0.06 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.76 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at +0.12 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on 49ers165 of 174 plays carry both curves
(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).
Swing +10.7 for EaglesExpected points +3.81 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 14 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:11PHI +11% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).
2nd · 6:18PHI +9% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 37 for 21 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 7-C.Ward).
2nd · 7:15PHI +9% win prob(7:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 4:04PHI +7% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:49PHI +7% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to PHI 10 for 32 yards (41-N.Morrow; 31-K.Byard).
1st · 3:33SF +6% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at SF 29 for -15 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon Aiyuk's 2-yard touchdown catch with 7:15 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:54Jake Elliott·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+30–3
1st2:05Jake Elliott·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+30–6
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.76 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.5349ers: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.06Eagles: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.7649ers: +0.76 expected points added per play
+0.12Eagles: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.2649ers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.19Eagles: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 56 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Eagles’s 70 at 81%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Eagles 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.53 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's early-down pass rate, 76.9%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 69.8% in week 6.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 12.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's play-action rate, 6.7%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.8-swing turn from week 12.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PHI's pass rate over expected, +9.9 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 12.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's blitz rate sent, 5.3%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 5.0 points clear of the next team along.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
PHI's play-action rate turned over: 31.6% in week 12 against 14.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Eagles10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NotePHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.9%, 20.2 points above their season mean of 56.8% and 2.1 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%59 snaps
74Spencer BurfordG · Every snap100%59 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Full-time93%55 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time93%55 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time93%55 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Full-time93%55 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Full-time93%55 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Full-time88%52 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time86%51 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time83%49 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational49%29 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational37%22 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational20%12 snaps
84Chris ConleyWR · Situational15%9 snaps
10Ronnie BellWR · Situational12%7 snaps
25Elijah MitchellRB · Situational8%5 snaps
75Matt PryorT · Situational7%4 snaps
76Jaylon MooreT · Situational7%4 snaps
55Jon FelicianoC · Situational7%4 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Situational7%4 snaps
24Jordan MasonRB · Situational5%3 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Robert BealDEBen BartchGJalen GrahamILBBrandon AllenQBTyrion Davis-PriceRBBrayden WillisTERay-Ray McCloudWR
8 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).
Q1 14:11 · Eagles · 3rd & 9 at PHI 26 · gained 38 · +3.81 EP · +13.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 90 yards from the SF 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
45%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0375%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.7063%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.1148%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.9429%
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+1.08100%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4760%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
49ers0Eagles3
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the 49ers 8
Punt5 plays
49ers0Eagles6
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the 49ers 14
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays
49ers6Eagles6
49ers7Eagles6
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Eagles 2
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 39
49ers13Eagles6
49ers14Eagles6
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the Eagles 2
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
49ers20Eagles6
49ers21Eagles6
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Eagles 12
49ers21Eagles12
49ers21Eagles13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the 49ers 1
49ers27Eagles13
49ers28Eagles13
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Eagles 48
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 40
4th quarter50 plays
49ers34Eagles13
49ers35Eagles13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Eagles 18
49ers35Eagles19
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the 49ers 2
49ers41Eagles19
49ers42Eagles19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 46
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the 49ers 22
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
