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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 13
It turned at Q1 14:11, 3rd and 9, on A.J. Brown — 10.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 42–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:11, Eagles +10.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:11 · 3rd and 9
A.J. Brown
Eagles
(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).
10.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.53 expected points per snap, against Eagles at +0.06 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.76 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at +0.12 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandon Aiyuk's 2-yard touchdown catch with 7:15 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Brandon Aiyuk2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+77–610 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryEagles
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.76 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 56 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Eagles’s 70 at 81%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Eagles 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.53 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 76.9%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
SF's play-action rate, 6.7%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
PHI's pass rate over expected, +9.9 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
SF's blitz rate sent, 5.3%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 13 — 5.0 points clear of the next team along.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
PHI's play-action rate turned over: 31.6% in week 12 against 14.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →49ers1.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 56 snaps
Eagles9.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.3 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 82%
Tendencies room →49ers45.5%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 44 early downs
Eagles76.9%off script — passed early · +20.2 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+2.07× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 43%
Tendencies room →49ers6.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.6 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles14.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 14% to 105%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →49ers5.3%leaned — sat back · −15.6 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Eagles23.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 32%
Tendencies room →49ers15.8%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Eagles10.0%inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
PHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.9%, 20.2 points above their season mean of 56.8% and 2.1 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
19/27, 314 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
22.3 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
26/45, 298 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.3 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Deebo Samuel banked 26.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 35.8 | +26.8 | 83% | 97% | 16% | 1% | 3 car, 22 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 116 yd, 2 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 29.5 | +15.5 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 314 yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 9 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.6 | +5.1 | 100% | 100% | 26% | 33% | 9/11, 96 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 23.9 | −9.9 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 26/45, 298 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.3 | +5.7 | 88% | 100% | 16% | 24% | 17 car, 93 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 40 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.4 | −4.1 | 86% | 86% | 31% | 36% | 8/13, 114 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.6 | +3.0 | 86% | 97% | 28% | 32% | 5/7, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.4 | +7.1 | 49% | 60% | 16% | 28% | 3/4, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 10.8 | −0.8 | 93% | 97% | 24% | 16% | 4/6, 68 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 9.7 | −0.3 | 54% | 58% | 14% | 3% | 2 car, 5 yd · 5/6, 42 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.1 | 64% | 70% | 10% | 22% | 3/4, 28 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 4.0 | −7.6 | 42% | 37% | 14% | 0% | 6 car, 13 yd · 2/6, 7 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 3.9 | +2.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 1.3 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marcus MariotaQB | 1.2 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jordan MasonRB | 1.0 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 44% | 49% | 2% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ben VanSumerenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sam DarnoldQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
8 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to SF 36 for 38 yards (26-I.Oliver).
Q1 14:11 · Eagles · 3rd & 9 at PHI 26 · gained 38 · +3.81 EP · +13.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 90 yards from the SF 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
49ers0
Eagles349ers0Eagles649ers6Eagles649ers7Eagles649ers13Eagles649ers14Eagles649ers20Eagles649ers21Eagles649ers21Eagles1249ers21Eagles1349ers27Eagles1349ers28Eagles1349ers34Eagles1349ers35Eagles1349ers35Eagles1949ers41Eagles1949ers42Eagles19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/27 | 314 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +22.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 | +5.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Elijah Mitchell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 4 | 116 | 2 | 16% | +10.9 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Nick Bosa |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 26/45 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +9.3 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2/3 | 16 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_13_SF_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 61 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 13 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.1 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +3.2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 28% | +5.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 16% | +5.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 16% | +1.4 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Oren Burks | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 | −2.1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 13 | 114 | 0 | 31% | +8.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 9 | 11 | 96 | 1 | 26% | +6.5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 14% | +2.6 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +1.5 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 2% | +2.7 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 14% | −3.1 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Morrow | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Ricks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
