2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -2 upsetU 49.5 ✓Chiefs closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, BUF +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:01BUF 20 — KC 17KC ball · 4th & 15BUF 79%

(1:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [56-L.Floyd].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:01BUF +17% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [56-L.Floyd].
Q1 · 11:37BUF +16% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 25-C.Edwards-Helaire INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa at BUF 41. 57-A.Epenesa to BUF 47 for 6 yards (15-P.Mahomes).
Q4 · 5:41KC +13% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 11-D.Harty to KC 40 for 25 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q3 · 0:38BUF +13% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice to KC 48 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford). FUMBLES (47-C.Benford), touched at KC 49, RECOVERED by BUF-7-Ta.Johnson at KC 48.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:48BUF Touchdown
(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — KC 0
Q2 · 11:58BUF Touchdown
(11:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — KC 0
Q2 · 1:26KC Touchdown
(1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — KC 7
Q3 · 8:41BUF Field goal
(8:41) 2-T.Bass 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 7
Q3 · 3:34KC Touchdown
(3:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 14
Q4 · 11:33KC Field goal
(11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 17
Q4 · 1:57BUF Field goal
(1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 20 — KC 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Chiefs
Offensive plays	70	62
Total yards	329	346 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	41%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.17
Third downs	6/15	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20	20
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Chiefs outgained Bills 346–329 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

25/43, 271 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.0 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

23/42, 233 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

10 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

11 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

James CookRB

5/5 for 83 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/10 for 83 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	9	45	3:30	Interception
2	BUF	BUF 47	5	13	1:51	Punt
3	KC	KC 12	6	11	2:32	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 47	7	53	3:24	Touchdown +7
5	KC	KC 25	5	7	1:24	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 27	13	73	5:29	Touchdown +7
7	KC	KC 25	9	41	3:24	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 7	8	36	4:50	Interception
9	KC	KC 48	10	67	2:17	Touchdown +7
10	BUF	BUF 25	10	31	1:19	End of half
11	BUF	BUF 25	11	67	6:22	Field goal +3
12	KC	KC 25	11	75	5:08	Touchdown +7
13	BUF	BUF 26	5	7	1:43	Punt
14	KC	KC 26	5	22	1:14	Fumble
15	BUF	KC 48	4	-8	0:47	Punt
16	KC	KC 41	8	49	3:15	Field goal +3
17	BUF	BUF 25	8	14	3:38	Punt
18	KC	KC 31	4	3	0:56	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 31	12	43	5:03	Field goal +3
20	KC	KC 25	7	26	0:59	Turnover on downs
21	BUF	KC 46	2	0	0:55	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	23/42	233	1	1	3	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	10	58	5.8	0	1.7
Josh Allen	10	32	3.2	1	-0.8
Ty Johnson	5	19	3.8	0	0.2
Latavius Murray	3	9	3.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Cook	5	5	83	1	14%	7.1
Dawson Knox	3	3	36	0	8%	2.7
Deonte Harty	1	1	25	0	3%	2.6
Stefon Diggs	4	11	24	0	31%	-4.2
Latavius Murray	1	1	21	0	3%	2.6
Dalton Kincaid	5	8	21	0	22%	-1.1
Khalil Shakir	1	1	12	0	3%	0.8
Trent Sherfield	1	2	9	0	6%	-2.4
Ty Johnson	2	2	2	0	6%	-1.1
Gabe Davis	0	2	0	0	6%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Taron Johnson	5	3	0.0	1
Terrel Bernard	4	4	0.0	0
Tyrel Dodson	5	2	0.0	0
Christian Benford	5	0	0.0	0
Micah Hyde	2	3	0.0	0
Taylor Rapp	1	2	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	1	2	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	0	3	0.0	1
Gregory Rousseau	0	2	0.5	1
Ed Oliver	0	2	0.5	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	25/43	271	1	1	1	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	11	39	3.5	0	-2.0
Jerick McKinnon	4	19	4.8	1	4.0
Kadarius Toney	2	16	8.0	0	0.9
Patrick Mahomes	1	8	8.0	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	6	10	83	0	26%	2.8
Rashee Rice	7	10	72	1	26%	-0.8
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	4	29	0	10%	-4.9
Kadarius Toney	3	4	25	0	10%	0.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	4	22	0	10%	-1.5
Jerick McKinnon	3	3	18	0	8%	0.7
Justin Watson	1	1	18	0	3%	1.2
Richie James	1	2	4	0	5%	0.1
Skyy Moore	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mike Edwards	10	1	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	5	2	0.0	3
Nick Bolton	3	3	0.0	1
Trent McDuffie	3	3	1.0	1
Justin Reid	3	3	0.0	1
Willie Gay	4	0	0.0	0
Michael Danna	1	3	0.0	0
Leo Chenal	2	2	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	2	1	1.0	0
Jack Cochrane	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -2
Closing total: 49.5
BUF moneyline: +105
KC moneyline: -125

Chiefs closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BUF 14 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Andy Reid