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2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
20
17
Buffalo Bills 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, BUF +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [56-L.Floyd].
How the points landed
(3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — KC 0(11:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — KC 0(1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — KC 7(8:41) 2-T.Bass 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 7(3:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 14(11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 17(1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 20 — KC 17Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Bills | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 70 | 62 |
| Total yards | 329 | 346 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 5.6 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.02 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 41% | 50% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 69% | 73% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.05 (edge) | -0.14 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.18 (edge) | 0.17 |
| Third downs | 6/15 | 6/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 | 20 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 3 |
Chiefs outgained Bills 346–329 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
25/43, 271 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.0 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
23/42, 233 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.0 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | KC 25 | 9 | 45 | 3:30 | Interception | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 47 | 5 | 13 | 1:51 | Punt | |
| 3 | KC | KC 12 | 6 | 11 | 2:32 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 47 | 7 | 53 | 3:24 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 27 | 13 | 73 | 5:29 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | KC | KC 25 | 9 | 41 | 3:24 | Punt | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 7 | 8 | 36 | 4:50 | Interception | |
| 9 | KC | KC 48 | 10 | 67 | 2:17 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 25 | 10 | 31 | 1:19 | End of half | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 25 | 11 | 67 | 6:22 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | KC | KC 25 | 11 | 75 | 5:08 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 26 | 5 | 7 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 14 | KC | KC 26 | 5 | 22 | 1:14 | Fumble | |
| 15 | BUF | KC 48 | 4 | -8 | 0:47 | Punt | |
| 16 | KC | KC 41 | 8 | 49 | 3:15 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 14 | 3:38 | Punt | |
| 18 | KC | KC 31 | 4 | 3 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 31 | 12 | 43 | 5:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | KC | KC 25 | 7 | 26 | 0:59 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | BUF | KC 46 | 2 | 0 | 0:55 | End of game |
7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/42 | 233 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 5 | 5 | 83 | 1 | 14% | 7.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 8% | 2.7 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Johnson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/43 | 271 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2.6 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 31% | -4.2 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | 2.6 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 22% | -1.1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | -2.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | -1.1 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.8 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Ed Oliver | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| -2.0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 | 4.0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 10 | 83 | 0 | 26% | 2.8 |
| Rashee Rice | 7 | 10 | 72 | 1 | 26% | -0.8 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 10% | -4.9 |
| Kadarius Toney | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 10% | 0.6 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 10% | -1.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8% | 0.7 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | 1.2 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | 0.1 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Edwards | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Willie Gay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Cochrane | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
