2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Carolina Panthers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -5.5 ✓U 39 ✓DomeSaints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 22.

New Orleans Saints 28–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:30, CAR +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:30CAR 0 — NO 0CAR ball · 1st & 10NO 67%

(6:30) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 37 for -12 yards (31-J.Howden). FUMBLES (31-J.Howden) [56-D.Davis], RECOVERED by NO-20-P.Werner at CAR 37. 20-P.Werner to CAR 36 for 1 yard.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:30CAR +11% win prob(6:30) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 37 for -12 yards (31-J.Howden). FUMBLES (31-J.Howden) [56-D.Davis], RECOVERED by NO-20-P.Werner at CAR 37. 20-P.Werner to CAR 36 for 1 yard.
Q2 · 4:43CAR +11% win prob(4:43) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker to CAR 16 for -10 yards (45-N.Sewell). FUMBLES (45-N.Sewell), touched at CAR 15, RECOVERED by NO-52-D.Jackson at CAR 8. 52-D.Jackson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-10-J.Hekker was injured during the play.
Q1 · 9:07CAR +10% win prob(9:07) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Q3 · 7:18NO +7% win prob(7:18) 6-M.Sanders right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 48 yards (29-P.Adebo).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 15:00NO Touchdown
(15:00) 41-A.Kamara left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NO 7
Q2 · 9:21CAR Field goal
(9:21) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — NO 7
Q2 · 4:43NO Touchdown
(4:43) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker to CAR 16 for -10 yards (45-N.Sewell). FUMBLES (45-N.Sewell), touched at CAR 15, RECOVERED by NO-52-D.Jackson at CAR 8. 52-D.Jackson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-10-J.Hekker was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — NO 14
Q3 · 5:00CAR Field goal
(5:00) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NO 14
Q4 · 6:03NO Touchdown
(6:03) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass short right to 12-C.Olave for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NO 21
Q4 · 4:34NO Touchdown
(4:34) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 80-J.Graham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 6 — NO 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Saints
Offensive plays	79	50
Total yards	303 (edge)	209
Yards per play	3.8	4.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.33	-0.19 (edge)
Success rate	35%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.61	-0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	0.00
Third downs	8/20 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Panthers outgained Saints 303–209 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

13/36, 137 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-31.3 expected points added · -21.2% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

18/26, 119 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-9.6 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

23 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Miles SandersRB

10 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

5/7 for 74 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

4/5 for 28 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 15	5	3	0:59	Punt
2	NO	NO 44	11	45	4:57	Missed field goal
3	CAR	CAR 20	5	17	2:42	Fumble
4	NO	CAR 36	4	7	1:37	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 12	4	7	1:38	Punt
6	NO	CAR 44	7	44	3:12	Touchdown +7
7	CAR	CAR 25	13	46	5:39	Field goal +3
8	NO	NO 25	8	16	3:10	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 18	4	-3	1:29	Defensive touchdown
10	CAR	CAR 13	9	41	3:32	Turnover on downs
11	NO	NO 46	4	3	0:47	Interception
12	NO	NO 45	5	1	0:18	Turnover on downs
13	NO	NO 34	7	4	3:47	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 14	12	75	6:16	Field goal +3
15	NO	NO 25	5	-1	2:02	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 30	8	47	4:20	Missed field goal
17	NO	NO 31	4	2	1:19	Punt
18	CAR	CAR 24	8	25	4:04	Turnover on downs
19	NO	NO 36	6	64	2:13	Touchdown +7
20	CAR	CAR 24	5	0	0:32	Turnover on downs
21	NO	CAR 24	5	24	0:58	Touchdown +7
22	CAR	CAR 25	12	45	3:21	Turnover on downs
23	NO	NO 35	2	0	1:08	End of game

5 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	13/36	137	0	0	4	-31.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	23	87	3.8	1.4
Miles Sanders	10	74	7.4	4.1
Bryce Young	3	40	13.3	5.2
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	1	10	10.0	1.0
Raheem Blackshear	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Johnny Hekker	1	-11	-11.0	-6.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	5	7	74	22%	4.0
D.J. Chark	2	4	26	13%	-2.3
Jonathan Mingo	2	9	22	28%	-3.8
Chuba Hubbard	2	2	9	6%	-1.5
Raheem Blackshear	1	2	4	6%	-4.1
Tommy Tremble	1	3	2	9%	-4.0
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	0	1	0	3%	-1.1
Stephen Sullivan	0	4	0	13%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Derrick Brown	5	5	0.0	1	1
Jaycee Horn	5	1	0.0	0	1
Vonn Bell	3	3	0.0	0	0
Xavier Woods	4	1	0.0	0	1
Shy Tuttle	2	2	0.0	0	0
Frankie Luvu	2	2	1.0	0	0
LaBryan Ray	1	1	0.0	0	0
Marquis Haynes	1	0	0.0	0	0
Brian Burns	1	0	0.0	0	0
Amare Barno	1	0	0.0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	18/26	119	2	1	1	-9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	12	56	4.7	1	2.2
Jamaal Williams	11	43	3.9	0	-2.2
Jameis Winston	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.T. Perry	1	1	44	0	5%	2.6
Chris Olave	4	5	28	1	23%	1.7
Lynn Bowden	4	4	24	0	18%	0.5
Jimmy Graham	2	2	16	1	9%	3.6
Juwan Johnson	2	3	10	0	14%	-2.2
Foster Moreau	2	2	8	0	9%	-0.4
Jamaal Williams	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.6
Alvin Kamara	3	4	-11	0	18%	-4.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Howden	7	3	1.0	1
Demario Davis	5	4	1.5	1
Nathan Shepherd	4	3	0.5	0
Khalen Saunders	2	3	0.0	0
Alontae Taylor	2	3	0.0	2
Tyrann Mathieu	4	1	0.0	1
Carl Granderson	3	1	1.0	0
Paulson Adebo	4	0	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	2	0	0.0	0
Zack Baun	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -5.5
Closing total: 39
CAR moneyline: +200
NO moneyline: -245

Saints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 39; the game landed 34 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: CAR 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Chris Tabor vs Dennis Allen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.