For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 14
It turned at Q1 6:30, 1st and 10, on Bryce Young — 11.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 28–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:30, Saints +11.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:30 · 1st and 10
Bryce Young
Saints
(6:30) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 37 for -12 yards (31-J.Howden). FUMBLES (31-J.Howden) [56-D.Davis], RECOVERED by NO-20-P.Werner at CAR 37. 20-P.Werner to CAR 36 for 1 yard.
11.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Saints won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Saints at 3 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(6:30) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 37 for -12 yards (31-J.Howden). FUMBLES (31-J.Howden) [56-D.Davis], RECOVERED by NO-20-P.Werner at CAR 37. 20-P.Werner to CAR 36 for 1 yard.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Alvin Kamara's 9-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 79 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Saints’s 50 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Saints 4.
Panthers outgained Saints 303-209 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's blitz rate sent, 48.1%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
NO's blitz rate sent, 46.5%, sat 25.8 points above their season number of 20.7% — they sent pressure by 2.3 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 13 against 80.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.1 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
NO's pass rate over expected turned over: −16.7 pts in week 13 against −2.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · +0.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-12.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 79 snaps
Saints-2.0 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 83%
Tendencies room →Panthers42.3%leaned — ran early · −12.7 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 52 early downs
Saints47.5%right on their number · −5.8 vs their 53.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Panthers14.0%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Saints14.8%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Panthers80.0%leaned — went for it · +27.1 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±22.1 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 62%
Tendencies room →Panthers48.1%leaned — sent pressure · +17.3 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Saints46.5%off script — sent pressure · +25.8 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+2.26× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Panthers22.2%leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Saints16.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 46.5%, 25.8 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 2.3 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
13/36, 137 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-31.3 expected points added · -21.2% completion over expected
Passing · NO
18/26, 119 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-9.6 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jimmy Graham banked 4.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 13.5 | +0.3 | 54% | 59% | 18% | 0% | 12 car, 56 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, -11 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 12.8 | +3.2 | 65% | 89% | 23% | 50% | 4/5, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Adam ThielenWR · Featured Receiver | 12.4 | +3.2 | 81% | 86% | 22% | 21% | 5/7, 74 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 11.6 | −1.1 | 78% | 84% | 6% | 0% | 23 car, 87 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 10.8 | 0.0 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 18/26, 119 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Jimmy GrahamTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +4.1 | 15% | 15% | 9% | 13% | 2/2, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 7.5 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/36, 137 yd · 3 car, 40 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 7.4 | 0.0 | 21% | 14% | 0% | — | 10 car, 74 yd |
| Lynn BowdenWR · Featured Receiver | 6.4 | +0.8 | 77% | 74% | 18% | 0% | 4/4, 24 yd |
| A.T. PerryWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +2.7 | 62% | 78% | 5% | 35% | 1/1, 44 yd |
| D.J. CharkWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −1.0 | 89% | 93% | 13% | 14% | 2/4, 26 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 4.3 | −3.1 | 44% | 37% | 5% | 0% | 11 car, 43 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.2 | −8.1 | 89% | 93% | 28% | 37% | 2/9, 22 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.4 | 40% | 52% | 14% | 6% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.3 | 63% | 48% | 9% | 2% | 2/2, 8 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 1.8 | −1.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.5 | 65% | 49% | 9% | 8% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.9 | 33% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1 car, 10 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.8 | 34% | 53% | 13% | 17% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:30) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 37 for -12 yards (31-J.Howden). FUMBLES (31-J.Howden) [56-D.Davis], RECOVERED by NO-20-P.Werner at CAR 37. 20-P.Werner to CAR 36 for 1 yard.
Q1 6:30 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at CAR 49 · lost 12 · -6.55 EP · −18.8% win probability
158 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Panthers0
Saints6Panthers0Saints7Panthers3Saints7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Panthers3Saints13Panthers3Saints14Panthers6Saints14Panthers6Saints20Panthers6Saints21Panthers6Saints27Panthers6Saints28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 13/36 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −31.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 23 | 87 | 3.8 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Miles Sanders | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Bryce Young |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 22% | +4.0 |
| D.J. Chark | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Brown | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaycee Horn | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vonn Bell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 18/26 | 119 | 2 | 1 | 1 | −9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_14_CAR_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 39; the game landed 34 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 40 |
| 13.3 |
| 0 |
| +5.2 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Johnny Hekker | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 | −6.1 |
| −2.3 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 28% | −3.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −4.1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −4.0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −2.8 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shy Tuttle | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaBryan Ray | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amare Barno | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 5% | +2.6 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 23% | +1.7 |
| Lynn Bowden | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 18% | +0.5 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 9% | +3.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 14% | −2.2 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | -11 | 0 | 18% | −4.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howden | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 5 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
