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polling · 300s tick · as of 2:05 PM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 14
It turned at Q1 5:07, 3rd and 7, on Jonathon Cooper — 14.5 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 24–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:07, Broncos +14.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:07 · 3rd and 7
Jonathon Cooper
Broncos
(5:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 0-J.Cooper (56-B.Browning) at LAC 7. 0-J.Cooper to LAC 3 for 4 yards (70-R.Slater).
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Broncos won this one — 8 of 16 on third down, against Chargers at 0 of 12 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.56 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(5:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 0-J.Cooper (56-B.Browning) at LAC 7. 0-J.Cooper to LAC 3 for 4 yards (70-R.Slater).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Javonte Williams's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 5:00 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Broncos ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 63 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Chargers’s 67 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Chargers 2.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 13 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.0 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 42.9% in week 13 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.1 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.4 pts in week 13 against −0.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.0 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-0.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 63 snaps
Chargers1.5 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their 0.7 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 33% to 84%
Tendencies room →Broncos51.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 47 early downs
Chargers65.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 60.3%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 43%
Tendencies room →Broncos25.0%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Chargers14.6%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Broncos0.0%leaned — took the kick · −21.6 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±19.1 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers66.7%leaned — went for it · +28.5 vs their 38.2%, and they swing ±25.0 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 64%
Tendencies room →Broncos43.8%inside their normal wobble · +11.9 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Chargers30.6%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Broncos20.8%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Chargers13.9%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 28.5 points above their season mean of 38.2% and 1.1 times their own 25.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
21/33, 224 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-2.2 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
13/24, 179 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.7 expected points added · -14.6% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
3/4 for 91 yds, 0 TD
10% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Courtland Sutton banked 8.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 21.0 | +1.4 | 72% | 79% | 17% | 3% | 10 car, 51 yd, 1 TD · 5/7, 49 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 18.1 | +2.0 | 60% | 53% | 13% | 0% | 17 car, 66 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 25 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 15.5 | −3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/33, 224 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 5 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.2 | +8.5 | 75% | 86% | 13% | 23% | 3/4, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.8 | −6.7 | 96% | 98% | 29% | 41% | 0/1, 0 yd · 6/12, 68 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | +2.6 | 88% | 98% | 10% | 20% | 3/4, 91 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +1.6 | 69% | 58% | 10% | 10% | 2/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Samaje PerineRB · Receiving Back | 9.4 | +1.1 | 21% | 31% | 17% | 0% | 2 car, 8 yd · 5/5, 36 yd |
| Gerald EverettTE · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | −4.7 | 68% | 73% | 20% | 8% | 5/8, 39 yd |
| Easton StickQB · Starter QB | 5.2 | −3.5 | 54% | — | 0% | — | 13/24, 179 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +2.9 | 25% | 31% | 3% | 15% | 1/1, 35 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 4.2 | −0.7 | 19% | 14% | 7% | 0% | 5 car, 25 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 3.6 | −10.4 | 57% | 67% | 20% | 72% | 2/6, 16 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −1.0 | 37% | 47% | 10% | 0% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.6 | 57% | 56% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.6 | 22% | 25% | 5% | 6% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Alex EricksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −9.4 | 66% | 69% | 17% | 22% | 1/7, 9 yd |
| Isaiah SpillerRB | 1.9 | −1.0 | 18% | 13% | 0% | — | 6 car, 19 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 1.8 | −7.6 | 46% | — | 0% | — | 9/17, 96 yd, 1 INT |
| Jalen GuytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | 0.0 | 32% | 27% | 2% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 1.3 | −0.8 | 21% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 0.6 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Scott MatlockRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Derius DavisWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 0-J.Cooper (56-B.Browning) at LAC 7. 0-J.Cooper to LAC 3 for 4 yards (70-R.Slater).
Q1 5:07 · Chargers · 3rd & 7 at LAC 12 · gained nothing · -5.69 EP · −14.3% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 94 yards from the LAC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Broncos6
Chargers0Broncos7Chargers0Broncos10Chargers0Broncos16Chargers0Broncos17Chargers0Broncos17Chargers6Broncos17Chargers7Broncos23Chargers7Broncos24Chargers7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/33 | 224 | 2 | 1 | 2 | −2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 | −2.9 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 4 | 62 | 1 | 13% | +2.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 17% | +1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josey Jewell | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| P.J. Locke | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Simmons |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick | 13/24 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −6.7 |
| Justin Herbert | 9/17 | 96 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −19.5 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_14_DEN_LAC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 31 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 3% | +3.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 13% | +1.4 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 10% | +3.6 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 20% | −1.1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −5.2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −1.4 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Patrick Surtain | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Fabian Moreau | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Baron Browning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Sanders | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Joshua Kelley | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 4 | 91 | 0 | 10% | +2.7 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 29% | −4.8 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 17% | +1.7 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 20% | −3.5 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 17% | −7.4 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Murray | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alohi Gilman | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hollins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Scott Matlock | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
