2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -3 upsetU 45 ✓DomeChargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 24–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:07, DEN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:07DEN 0 — LAC 0LAC ball · 3rd & 7LAC 52%

(5:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 0-J.Cooper (56-B.Browning) at LAC 7. 0-J.Cooper to LAC 3 for 4 yards (70-R.Slater).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:07DEN +15% win prob(5:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 0-J.Cooper (56-B.Browning) at LAC 7. 0-J.Cooper to LAC 3 for 4 yards (70-R.Slater).
Q1 · 12:10DEN +14% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 19-M.Mims to DEN 13 for 4 yards (43-M.Davis). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at DEN 13. 43-M.Davis to DEN 13 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
Q2 · 3:18DEN +11% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 82-A.Erickson. LAC-10-J.Herbert was injured during the play. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q1 · 10:52DEN +9% win prob(10:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 7-G.Everett.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:00DEN Touchdown
(5:00) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — LAC 0
Q2 · 0:08DEN Field goal
(:08) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 10 — LAC 0
Q3 · 6:05DEN Touchdown
(6:05) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-43-M.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — LAC 0
Q4 · 10:40LAC Touchdown
(10:40) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — LAC 7
Q4 · 3:16DEN Touchdown
(3:16) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 82-A.Trautman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 24 — LAC 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chargers
Offensive plays	63	67
Total yards	326 (edge)	283
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.47
Success rate	41% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	57%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.56
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.25
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	0/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.47.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

21/33, 224 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-2.2 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Easton StickQB

13/24, 179 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -14.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

17 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

10 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Quentin JohnstonWR

3/4 for 91 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

6/12 for 68 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	7	4	2:50	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 9	1	0	0:03	Interception
3	LAC	DEN 13	4	7	1:20	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 6	9	51	4:57	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 9	3	3	0:50	Interception
6	DEN	LAC 3	2	3	0:05	Touchdown +7
7	LAC	LAC 25	6	19	2:25	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 14	7	17	3:51	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 13	6	4	2:17	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 20	7	21	3:12	Punt
11	LAC	LAC 18	10	53	4:59	Turnover on downs
12	DEN	DEN 30	4	7	1:19	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 24	4	3	0:24	Defensive touchdown
14	DEN	DEN 30	10	60	1:23	Field goal +3
15	LAC	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
16	DEN	DEN 25	5	9	2:22	Punt
17	LAC	LAC 22	8	38	4:31	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 40	5	60	2:12	Touchdown +7
19	LAC	LAC 25	5	6	0:58	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 28	7	17	3:21	Punt
21	LAC	LAC 9	11	42	2:41	Turnover on downs
22	DEN	DEN 49	4	6	1:34	Punt
23	LAC	LAC 6	6	91	1:44	Touchdown +7
24	DEN	DEN 25	15	75	7:26	Touchdown +7
25	LAC	LAC 16	7	13	1:27	Fumble
26	DEN	LAC 13	3	0	1:44	End of game

5 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	21/33	224	2	1	2	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	17	66	3.9	1	-2.9
Jaleel McLaughlin	5	25	5.0	0	1.5
Samaje Perine	2	8	4.0	0	0.3
Russell Wilson	6	5	0.8	0	-3.9
Michael Burton	1	2	2.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	3	4	62	1	13%	2.7
Samaje Perine	5	5	36	0	17%	1.3
Lucas Krull	1	1	35	0	3%	3.2
Javonte Williams	3	4	25	0	13%	1.4
Adam Trautman	2	3	19	1	10%	3.6
Jerry Jeudy	2	6	16	0	20%	-1.1
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	12	0	3%	-0.2
Marvin Mims	2	3	11	0	10%	-5.2
Jaleel McLaughlin	1	2	7	0	7%	-1.4
Michael Burton	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	6	4	1.0	1
Josey Jewell	3	5	1.0	1
P.J. Locke	2	5	1.0	1
Justin Simmons	2	3	1.0	1
Patrick Surtain	4	0	0.0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	4	0	1.0	2
Fabian Moreau	2	1	0.0	1
Baron Browning	2	0	0.0	1
Drew Sanders	1	1	0.0	0
Jaleel McLaughlin	1	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	INT	Sacked	EPA
Easton Stick	13/24	179	0	2	-6.7
Justin Herbert	9/17	96	1	4	-19.5
Keenan Allen	0/1	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	10	51	5.1	1	2.4
Isaiah Spiller	6	19	3.2	0	-2.4
Joshua Kelley	3	6	2.0	0	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Quentin Johnston	3	4	91	10%	2.7
Keenan Allen	6	12	68	29%	-4.8
Austin Ekeler	5	7	49	17%	1.7
Gerald Everett	5	8	39	20%	-3.5
Donald Parham	1	2	11	5%	-0.5
Alex Erickson	1	7	9	17%	-7.4
Jalen Guyton	1	1	8	2%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kenneth Murray	8	3	1.0	0
Derwin James	4	3	0.0	1
Alohi Gilman	5	2	0.0	0
Eric Kendricks	3	2	1.0	0
Asante Samuel	3	1	0.0	1
Tuli Tuipulotu	2	1	0.0	0
Sebastian Joseph	1	1	0.0	0
Justin Hollins	1	1	0.0	0
Khalil Mack	1	1	0.0	1
Scott Matlock	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3
Closing total: 45
DEN moneyline: +136
LAC moneyline: -162

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 31 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: DEN 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Brandon Staley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.