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2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Soldier Field

Detroit Lions

13

Chicago BearsWinner

28

DET -3 upsetU 44.5 ✓

Chicago Bears 28–13. Biggest swing: Q3 1:42, CHI +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHIDET
Q3 · 1:42DET 13CHI 19CHI ball · 4th & 13DET 56%

(1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 1:42CHI +26% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined.
  2. Q3 · 1:03DET +12% win prob(1:03) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 29, touched at DET 29, RECOVERED by CHI-53-T.Edwards at DET 29.
  3. Q2 · 9:01CHI +12% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 19-D.Peoples-Jones to CHI 21 for 17 yards (32-T.Smith).
  4. Q2 · 0:30CHI +10% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:22CHI Touchdown

    (10:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-D.Moore. 2-D.Moore left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 0CHI 7
  2. Q1 · 1:27CHI Field goal

    (1:27) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: DET 0CHI 10
  3. Q2 · 7:04DET Touchdown

    (7:04) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 6CHI 10
  4. Q2 · 0:30DET Touchdown

    (:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 13CHI 10
  5. Q3 · 8:42CHI Field goal

    (8:42) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: DET 13CHI 13
  6. Q3 · 1:42CHI Touchdown

    (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: DET 13CHI 19
  7. Q4 · 14:19CHI Touchdown

    (14:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 13CHI 25
  8. Q4 · 9:23CHI Field goal

    (9:23) 8-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: DET 13CHI 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsBears
Offensive plays6365
Total yards267338 (edge)
Yards per play4.25.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.150.04 (edge)
Success rate41% (edge)32%
Dropback rate62%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.160.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12 (edge)-0.28
Third downs6/156/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1318 (edge)
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

19/33, 223 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

20/35, 161 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-6.3 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

10 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

11 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

6/10 for 68 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

5/6 for 66 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 3110694:43Touchdown +7
2DETDET 258273:43Punt
3CHICHI 910435:12Field goal +3
4DETDET 257452:22Interception
5CHICHI 125502:21Turnover on downs
6DETDET 3910664:40Touchdown +6
7CHICHI 235-81:44Punt
8DETDET 4712534:49Touchdown +7
9CHICHI 253-70:26End of half
10DETDET 25541:02Punt
11CHICHI 2812615:20Field goal +3
12DETDET 255121:02Punt
13CHICHI 484112:07Punt
14DETDET 174-11:23Punt
15CHI508502:30Touchdown +6
16DETDET 23360:36Fumble
17CHIDET 296291:48Touchdown +6
18DETDET 25551:59Turnover on downs
19CHIDET 307202:53Field goal +3
20DETDET 2512424:04Turnover on downs
21CHICHI 38481:44Punt
22DETDET 25581:01Interception
23CHICHI 384122:31End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 69 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff20/35161124-6.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery10666.603.1
Jahmyr Gibbs11666.01-1.1
Sam LaPorta144.000.1
Jameson Williams144.00-0.1
Jared Goff100.00-5.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Reynolds3444112%4.0
Sam LaPorta2623018%-0.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown3821024%-5.2
David Montgomery331909%1.7
Donovan Peoples-Jones111703%3.7
Jahmyr Gibbs3416012%-0.5
Kalif Raymond3415012%0.0
Brock Wright22606%-0.5
Jameson Williams02006%-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell540.000
Alex Anzalone540.000
Derrick Barnes250.000
John Cominsky341.000
Kerby Joseph500.001
Benito Jones120.000
Kindle Vildor300.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu120.000
Brian Branch120.000
Cameron Sutton210.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields19/332231032.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields12584.813.3
D'Onta Foreman11504.50-0.8
D.J. Moore3206.71-1.0
Khalil Herbert382.70-1.1
Roschon Johnson166.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore61068133%4.8
Cole Kmet5666020%3.0
Darnell Mooney2744023%0.5
D'Onta Foreman2322010%0.5
Tyler Scott111103%0.6
Velus Jones111103%1.1
Marcedes Lewis11403%-0.2
Khari Blasingame11-303%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaquan Brisker940.002
Tremaine Edmunds420.011
Justin Jones151.500
Tyrique Stevenson410.001
T.J. Edwards310.001
Montez Sweat221.001
Terell Smith300.000
Yannick Ngakoue121.000
Zacch Pickens110.000
Eddie Jackson200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -3
Closing total
44.5
DET moneyline
-170
CHI moneyline
+142

Lions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 41 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
36°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
DET 7 days · CHI 13 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.