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2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Soldier Field
13
28
Chicago Bears 28–13. Biggest swing: Q3 1:42, CHI +26% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined.
How the points landed
(10:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-D.Moore. 2-D.Moore left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 0 — CHI 7(1:27) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: DET 0 — CHI 10(7:04) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DET 6 — CHI 10(:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 13 — CHI 10(8:42) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: DET 13 — CHI 13(1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: DET 13 — CHI 19(14:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DET 13 — CHI 25(9:23) 8-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: DET 13 — CHI 28Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Lions | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 65 |
| Total yards | 267 | 338 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.2 | 5.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.15 | 0.04 (edge) |
| Success rate | 41% (edge) | 32% |
| Dropback rate | 62% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.16 | 0.23 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 (edge) | -0.28 |
| Third downs | 6/15 | 6/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 | 18 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
19/33, 223 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.0 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected
Passing · DET
20/35, 161 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-6.3 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | CHI 31 | 10 | 69 | 4:43 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | DET | DET 25 | 8 | 27 | 3:43 | Punt | |
| 3 | CHI | CHI 9 | 10 | 43 | 5:12 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | DET | DET 25 | 7 | 45 | 2:22 | Interception | |
| 5 | CHI | CHI 12 | 5 | 50 | 2:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | DET | DET 39 | 10 | 66 | 4:40 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 7 | CHI | CHI 23 | 5 | -8 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 8 | DET | DET 47 | 12 | 53 | 4:49 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | CHI | CHI 25 | 3 | -7 | 0:26 | End of half | |
| 10 | DET | DET 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 11 | CHI | CHI 28 | 12 | 61 | 5:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | DET | DET 25 | 5 | 12 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 13 | CHI | CHI 48 | 4 | 11 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 14 | DET | DET 17 | 4 | -1 | 1:23 | Punt | |
| 15 | CHI | 50 | 8 | 50 | 2:30 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 16 | DET | DET 23 | 3 | 6 | 0:36 | Fumble | |
| 17 | CHI | DET 29 | 6 | 29 | 1:48 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 18 | DET | DET 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:59 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | CHI | DET 30 | 7 | 20 | 2:53 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | DET | DET 25 | 12 | 42 | 4:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | CHI | CHI 38 | 4 | 8 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 22 | DET | DET 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:01 | Interception | |
| 23 | CHI | CHI 38 | 4 | 12 | 2:31 | End of game |
8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 69 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/35 | 161 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 | 3.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -5.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 12% | 4.0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 18% | -0.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Cominsky |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 19/33 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 41 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -5.2 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9% | 1.7 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | 3.7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 12% | -0.5 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12% | 0.0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | -0.5 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -2.2 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Benito Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.3 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | -0.8 |
| D.J. Moore | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 6 | 10 | 68 | 1 | 33% | 4.8 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 20% | 3.0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 23% | 0.5 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | 0.5 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 1.1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
| Khari Blasingame | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | -1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquan Brisker | 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Jones | 1 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Edwards | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terell Smith | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zacch Pickens | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
