2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
Houston Texans
6
New York JetsWinner
30
New York Jets 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 11:56, NYJ +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 11:56NYJ +12% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- Q3 · 8:01NYJ +10% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 83-T.Conklin to HOU 44 for 24 yards (1-J.Ward).
- Q1 · 2:29HOU +9% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 22 for -14 yards (47-B.Huff).
- Q3 · 11:11NYJ +9% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q3 · 11:11NYJ Touchdown
(11:11) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — NYJ 7 - Q3 · 4:37NYJ Touchdown
(4:37) 82-X.Gipson right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — NYJ 14 - Q3 · 0:00HOU Touchdown
(:00) 60-D.Eiselen reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — NYJ 14 - Q4 · 9:32NYJ Touchdown
(9:32) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 20-Bre.Hall for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 6 — NYJ 21 - Q4 · 6:56NYJ Field goal
(6:56) 9-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — NYJ 24 - Q4 · 4:34NYJ Field goal
(4:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — NYJ 27 - Q4 · 1:12NYJ Field goal
(1:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — NYJ 30
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Texans | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 52 | 65 |
| Total yards | 135 | 348 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 2.6 | 5.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.53 | -0.01 (edge) |
| Success rate | 25% | 38% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.77 | 0.07 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 (edge) | -0.15 |
| Third downs | 1/12 | 6/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 8 | 20 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 4 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.53.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · NYJ
27/36, 301 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.8 expected points added · +10.2% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
10/23, 91 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-16.4 expected points added · -20.5% completion over expected
Receiving · NYJ
9/14 for 108 yds, 0 TD
40% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 21 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 2 | NYJ | NYJ 9 | 10 | 54 | 6:30 | Punt | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 20 | 7 | 12 | 4:05 | Punt | |
| 4 | NYJ | NYJ 27 | 4 | 11 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 33 | 6 | -8 | 2:59 | Punt | |
| 6 | NYJ | NYJ 24 | 9 | 33 | 4:38 | Punt | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 2 | 4 | 7 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 8 | NYJ | NYJ 45 | 4 | 2 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 5 | 4 | 6 | 1:46 | Punt | |
| 10 | NYJ | NYJ 46 | 4 | 1 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 8 | 7 | 25 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 12 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | End of half | |
| 13 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 9 | 80 | 3:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | -4 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 15 | NYJ | NYJ 31 | 9 | 59 | 5:02 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 4 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 17 | NYJ | NYJ 19 | 4 | 31 | 2:15 | Fumble | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 43 | 5 | 50 | 1:20 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 19 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 12 | 75 | 5:33 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:16 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | NYJ | HOU 32 | 4 | -1 | 1:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 6 | 0:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | NYJ | HOU 30 | 5 | 4 | 1:43 | Field goal +3 | |
| 24 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 1 | 1:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | NYJ | HOU 25 | 4 | -1 | 2:10 | Field goal +3 | |
| 26 | HOU | HOU 25 | 3 | 7 | 1:08 | End of game |
7 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Houston Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 10/23 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16.4 |
| Davis Mills | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | -0.9 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brevin Jordan | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 11% | 2.9 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4% | 1.5 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | -0.1 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 1.4 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 19% | -6.3 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7% | -0.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | -1.6 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19% | -9.9 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | -0.9 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 11% | -1.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harris | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 5 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Pitre | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Maliek Collins | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Barnett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Angelo Ross | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
New York Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 27/36 | 301 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7.8 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Dalvin Cook | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | -4.8 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | -1.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 40% | 4.4 |
| Breece Hall | 8 | 9 | 86 | 1 | 26% | 5.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 17% | 4.0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 9% | 2.8 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3% | 1.8 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 3% | -1.3 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Mosley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Reed | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quinton Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Huff | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- HOU -3.5
- Closing total
- 33.5
- HOU moneyline
- -175
- NYJ moneyline
- +145
Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 33.5; the game landed 36 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- MetLife Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- 58°F, wind 7 mph
- Referee
- Brad Allen
- Rest
- HOU 7 days · NYJ 7 days
- Coaches
- DeMeco Ryans vs Robert Saleh