For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Texans161 of 168 plays carry both curves
(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Swing +11.6 for JetsExpected points +3.44 for JetsThe model had Jets 14 points higher than the market did.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:56NYJ +12% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
3rd · 8:01NYJ +10% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 83-T.Conklin to HOU 44 for 24 yards (1-J.Ward).
1st · 2:29HOU +9% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 22 for -14 yards (47-B.Huff).
3rd · 11:11NYJ +9% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:51NYJ +8% win prob(11:51) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for no gain (37-D.Ross).
1st · 10:57NYJ +8% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 17-G.Wilson pushed ob at NYJ 27 for 16 yards (21-S.Nelson).
3rd · 1:32
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Randall Cobb's 15-yard touchdown catch with 11:11 left in the 3rd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th6:56Greg Zuerlein·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+36–24
4th4:34Greg Zuerlein·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+36–27
4th1:12Greg Zuerlein·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+36–30
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryJets
Texans1–8Jets
135Total yards348
2.6Yards per play5.4
25%Success rate38%
8%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays8
8First downs20
5Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Jets ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.53Texans: −0.53 expected points added per play
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.77Texans: −0.77 expected points added per play
+0.07Jets: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Texans: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.15Jets: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 52 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Jets’s 65 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Jets 3.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.53.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, +9.1 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +6.8 pts in week 4.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 13.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 11.4% in week 13 against 28.6% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 13 against 15.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +4.1 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jets21.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.7%, 18.5 points above their season mean of 17.3% and 1.9 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Z.Wilson pass+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q3 11:56 · Jets · 3rd & 12 at HOU 40 · gained 25 · +3.44 EP · +11.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 75 yards from the NYJ 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
34%
Yards
482
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.6473%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0474%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3453%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.0767%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.4542%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 46
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Texans 27
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 36
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt8 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Texans 39
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 2 to the Texans 9
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 47
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 5 to the Texans 10
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Jets 47
The period ended9 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Texans0Jets6
Texans0Jets7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Texans 15
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 27
Texans0Jets13
Texans0Jets14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Texans 9
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 40
Texans6Jets14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Jets 1
4th quarter46 plays
Texans6Jets20
Texans6Jets21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Texans 3
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Texans6Jets24
Field goal4 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Texans6Jets27
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 29
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 29
Texans6Jets30
Field goal4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -3.5
Closing total
33.5
Texans moneyline
-175
Jets moneyline
+145
Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 33.5; the game landed 36 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; 0.52 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Texans 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Robert Saleh
HOU +8% win prob
(1:32) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles left tackle to 50 for 10 yards (48-C.Harris). FUMBLES (48-C.Harris), touched at HOU 47, RECOVERED by HOU-94-K.Davis at HOU 43.
3rd · 10:18HOU +7% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 21 for -6 yards (95-Q.Williams).
