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2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · MetLife Stadium

Houston Texans

6

New York JetsWinner

30

HOU -3.5 upsetO 33.5 ✓

New York Jets 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 11:56, NYJ +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJHOU
Q3 · 11:56HOU 0NYJ 0NYJ ball · 3rd & 12HOU 57%

(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 11:56NYJ +12% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
  2. Q3 · 8:01NYJ +10% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 83-T.Conklin to HOU 44 for 24 yards (1-J.Ward).
  3. Q1 · 2:29HOU +9% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 22 for -14 yards (47-B.Huff).
  4. Q3 · 11:11NYJ +9% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q3 · 11:11NYJ Touchdown

    (11:11) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0NYJ 7
  2. Q3 · 4:37NYJ Touchdown

    (4:37) 82-X.Gipson right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0NYJ 14
  3. Q3 · 0:00HOU Touchdown

    (:00) 60-D.Eiselen reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 6NYJ 14
  4. Q4 · 9:32NYJ Touchdown

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 20-Bre.Hall for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 6NYJ 21
  5. Q4 · 6:56NYJ Field goal

    (6:56) 9-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: HOU 6NYJ 24
  6. Q4 · 4:34NYJ Field goal

    (4:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: HOU 6NYJ 27
  7. Q4 · 1:12NYJ Field goal

    (1:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: HOU 6NYJ 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansJets
Offensive plays5265
Total yards135348 (edge)
Yards per play2.65.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.53-0.01 (edge)
Success rate25%38% (edge)
Dropback rate63%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.770.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.10 (edge)-0.15
Third downs1/126/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)48 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps820 (edge)
Sacks taken54 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.53.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

27/36, 301 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · +10.2% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

10/23, 91 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-16.4 expected points added · -20.5% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

13 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

10 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

9/14 for 108 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Breece HallRB

8/9 for 86 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 257212:42Punt
2NYJNYJ 910546:30Punt
3HOUHOU 207124:05Punt
4NYJNYJ 274112:01Punt
5HOUHOU 336-82:59Punt
6NYJNYJ 249334:38Punt
7HOUHOU 2471:31Punt
8NYJNYJ 45420:58Punt
9HOUHOU 5461:46Punt
10NYJNYJ 46410:58Punt
11HOUHOU 87251:50Punt
12NYJNYJ 20100:02End of half
13NYJNYJ 259803:55Touchdown +7
14HOUHOU 255-41:32Punt
15NYJNYJ 319595:02Touchdown +7
16HOUHOU 25540:56Punt
17NYJNYJ 194312:15Fumble
18HOUHOU 435501:20Touchdown +6
19NYJNYJ 2512755:33Touchdown +7
20HOUHOU 25581:16Turnover on downs
21NYJHOU 324-11:20Field goal +3
22HOUHOU 25560:38Turnover on downs
23NYJHOU 30541:43Field goal +3
24HOUHOU 25511:12Turnover on downs
25NYJHOU 254-12:10Field goal +3
26HOUHOU 25371:08End of game

7 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud10/2391004-16.4
Davis Mills1/54001-9.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Singletary13655.010.5
Dameon Pierce492.30-1.5
Dare Ogunbowale273.50-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brevin Jordan3335011%2.9
Andrew Beck112604%1.5
Xavier Hutchinson2315011%-0.1
Nico Collins111304%1.4
John Metchie156019%-6.3
Dare Ogunbowale12407%-0.6
Devin Singletary030011%-1.6
Noah Brown050019%-9.9
Dameon Pierce11-204%-0.9
Robert Woods13-2011%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Harris730.000
Jimmie Ward520.000
Jonathan Greenard512.001
Jalen Pitre510.000
Derek Stingley500.000
Steven Nelson320.000
Denzel Perryman130.002
Maliek Collins131.000
Derek Barnett200.000
D'Angelo Ross110.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Zach Wilson27/363012047.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall10404.00-2.4
Dalvin Cook7131.90-2.9
Zach Wilson3124.00-4.8
Xavier Gipson199.011.7
Garrett Wilson133.002.0
Nick Bawden133.00-0.2
Israel Abanikanda3-1-0.30-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson914108040%4.4
Breece Hall8986126%5.2
Tyler Conklin4657017%4.0
Jeremy Ruckert333709%2.8
Randall Cobb111513%1.8
Xavier Gipson11303%-0.5
Dalvin Cook11-503%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quincy Williams220.001
C.J. Mosley220.001
D.J. Reed400.003
Quinnen Williams211.000
Ashtyn Davis210.000
Tony Adams120.001
Ahmad Gardner210.002
Quinton Jefferson120.000
Jordan Whitehead120.000
Bryce Huff111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Closing total
33.5
HOU moneyline
-175
NYJ moneyline
+145

Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 33.5; the game landed 36 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
58°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
HOU 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Robert Saleh