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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 14
It turned at Q3 11:56, 3rd and 12, on Garrett Wilson — 11.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 11:56, Jets +11.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:56 · 3rd and 12
Garrett Wilson
Jets
(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
11.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.77 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.53 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Texans at 1 of 12 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 25% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Randall Cobb's 15-yard touchdown catch with 11:11 left in the 3rd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Randall Cobb15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Zach WilsonLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 52 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Jets’s 65 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Jets 3.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.53.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected, +9.1 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 11.4% in week 13 against 28.6% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 13 against 15.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-8.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.4 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 52 snaps
Jets9.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.2 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 97%
Tendencies room →Texans51.4%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 37 early downs
Jets59.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 46%
Tendencies room →Texans15.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jets35.7%leaned — faked the run · +18.5 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+1.95× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Texans50.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.2 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jets—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 43%
Tendencies room →Texans28.6%leaned — sent pressure · +9.4 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jets21.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Texans21.4%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jets21.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.7%, 18.5 points above their season mean of 17.3% and 1.9 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
27/36, 301 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.8 expected points added · +10.2% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
10/23, 91 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-16.4 expected points added · -20.5% completion over expected
Receiving · NYJ
9/14 for 108 yds, 0 TD
40% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Breece Hall banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 26.6 | +7.3 | 62% | 69% | 26% | 0% | 10 car, 40 yd · 8/9, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.1 | −2.2 | 91% | 98% | 40% | 69% | 1 car, 3 yd · 9/14, 108 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | +2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/36, 301 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 12 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.5 | −1.7 | 57% | 48% | 11% | 6% | 13 car, 65 yd, 1 TD · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +1.0 | 56% | 67% | 17% | 19% | 4/6, 57 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +6.8 | 19% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +5.6 | 44% | 55% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 9 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +1.8 | 49% | 36% | 9% | 13% | 3/3, 37 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +2.5 | 75% | 85% | 11% | 4% | 3/3, 35 yd |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 3.6 | −2.9 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 10/23, 91 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 3.6 | +2.2 | 27% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 26 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.8 | 73% | 70% | 11% | 7% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 2.1 | −1.4 | 29% | 39% | 7% | 2% | 2 car, 7 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB | 1.8 | −3.0 | 24% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 13 yd · 1/1, -5 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB | 1.7 | −1.5 | 14% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 9 yd · 1/1, -2 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Featured Receiver | 1.6 | −3.8 | 50% | 45% | 19% | 24% | 1/5, 6 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −3.7 | 71% | 82% | 11% | 9% | 1/3, -2 yd |
| Nick BawdenRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | 32% | 29% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Davis MillsQB | 0.2 | −0.9 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 1/5, 4 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 0.0 | −7.4 | 66% | 79% | 19% | 40% | 0/5, 0 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 72% | 81% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Israel AbanikandaRB | -0.1 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-G.Wilson to HOU 15 for 25 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q3 11:56 · Jets · 3rd & 12 at HOU 40 · gained 25 · +3.44 EP · +11.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 75 yards from the NYJ 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Texans0
Jets6Texans0Jets7Texans0Jets13Texans0Jets14Texans6Jets14Texans6Jets20Texans6Jets21Texans6Jets24Texans6Jets27Texans6Jets30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 10/23 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −16.4 |
| Davis Mills | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brevin Jordan | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 11% | +2.9 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harris | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 27/36 | 301 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +7.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_14_HOU_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 33.5; the game landed 36 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| +1.5 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | −0.1 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 19% | −6.3 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7% | −0.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19% | −9.9 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 11% | −1.7 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jalen Pitre | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Maliek Collins | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Barnett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Angelo Ross | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Dalvin Cook | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 40% | +4.4 |
| Breece Hall | 8 | 9 | 86 | 1 | 26% | +5.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 17% | +4.0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 9% | +2.8 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Mosley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Reed | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quinton Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Huff | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
