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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 14
It turned at Q2 1:40, 2nd and 4, on Ronnie Harrison — 20.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 34–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:40, Colts +20.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:40 · 2nd and 4
Ronnie Harrison
Colts
(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 2 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tanner Hudson's 11-yard touchdown catch with 11:44 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Mo Alie-Cox2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Gardner Minshew · kick no good, wide left+66–14Ronnie Harrison36-yd defense TD36-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · two-point good+814–14
Tanner Hudson11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jake BrowningLead never changed again+714–218 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 60 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Bengals’s 57 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Bengals 6.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's blitz rate sent, 3.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 6.0 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CIN's early-down pass rate, 46.7%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 13 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
CIN's play-action rate, 33.3%, sat 16.0 points above their season number of 17.3% — they faked the run by 2.0 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.5% in week 13 against 11.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Colts5.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +9.3 vs their -4.2 pts, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 59 snaps
Bengals-5.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.7 vs their 5.7 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 89%
Tendencies room →Colts69.6%leaned — passed early · +15.9 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 46 early downs
Bengals46.7%leaned — ran early · −16.5 vs their 63.1%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 54%
Tendencies room →Colts18.2%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Bengals33.3%off script — faked the run · +16.0 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+2.05× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Colts—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.1%.
Bengals33.3%right on their number · +3.8 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 52%
Tendencies room →Colts3.7%leaned — sat back · −12.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Bengals13.6%leaned — sat back · −10.9 vs their 24.6%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 35%
Tendencies room →Colts11.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Bengals6.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
CIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 17.3% and 2.0 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
18/24, 275 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
8.0 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · IND
26/39, 240 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.6 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
8/11 for 95 yds, 0 TD
29% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chase Brown banked 9.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake BrowningQB · Starter QB | 23.7 | +7.5 | 92% | — | 0% | — | 18/24, 275 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.5 | −6.9 | 63% | 52% | 16% | 0% | 21 car, 79 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 46 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Receiving Back | 19.5 | +9.4 | 30% | 30% | 12% | 0% | 8 car, 25 yd · 3/3, 80 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.5 | +2.6 | 86% | 93% | 29% | 37% | 8/11, 95 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 14.1 | −0.9 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 26/39, 240 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +4.9 | 23% | 37% | 12% | 19% | 2/3, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Zack MossRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.6 | −10.5 | 84% | 84% | 21% | 0% | 13 car, 28 yd · 4/8, 28 yd |
| Will MalloryTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +2.2 | 31% | 36% | 13% | 12% | 5/5, 46 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +2.7 | 75% | 81% | 16% | 61% | 2/4, 72 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.3 | 28% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +1.7 | 78% | 80% | 8% | 9% | 3/3, 32 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −1.7 | 87% | 96% | 16% | 36% | 3/4, 29 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −0.9 | 52% | 63% | 12% | 21% | 2/3, 23 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.6 | 91% | 95% | 8% | 23% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −2.8 | 38% | 45% | 11% | 16% | 2/4, 17 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.3 | 67% | 59% | 8% | 0% | 2/2, 4 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 1.3 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.6 | 37% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 0.9 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 0.8 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 27% | 20% | 5% | 8% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| AJ McCarronQB | -0.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:40 · Bengals · 2nd & 4 at CIN 31 · gained nothing · -7.98 EP · −18.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 92 yards from the CIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Colts0
Bengals6Colts0Bengals7Colts0Bengals13Colts0Bengals14Colts6Bengals14How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Colts12Bengals14Colts14Bengals14Colts14Bengals20Colts14Bengals21Colts14Bengals27Colts14Bengals28Colts14Bengals31Colts14Bengals34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 26/39 | 240 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Trey Sermon | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Gardner Minshew |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 29% | +2.8 |
| Will Mallory | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Blackmon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 18/24 | 275 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8.0 |
| AJ McCarron | 1/1 | -1 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_14_IND_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 45; the game landed 48 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| +1.3 |
| +1.9 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 8% | +1.9 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 21% | −5.2 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +3.2 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 11% | +1.2 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +3.0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Darrell Baker | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylon Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Samson Ebukam | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Stuard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Chase Brown | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Jake Browning | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 80 | 1 | 12% | +5.1 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 4 | 72 | 0 | 16% | +4.8 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 16% | +1.7 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 16% | +0.9 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 12% | +0.4 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 12% | −4.3 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Germaine Pratt | 2 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dax Hill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Turner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Hubbard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Sample | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reader | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
