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2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

14

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

34

CIN -3 ✓O 45 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 34–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:40, IND +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑IND ↓
Q2 · 1:40IND 12 — CIN 14CIN ball · 2nd & 4CIN 83%

(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:40IND +20% win prob(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 6:42CIN +12% win prob(6:42) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 8:56CIN +10% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to IND 24 for 46 yards (39-D.Baker).
  4. Q2 · 2:00CIN +10% win prob(2:00) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:42CIN Touchdown

    (6:42) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q2 · 10:22CIN Touchdown

    (10:22) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 0 — CIN 14
  3. Q2 · 2:00IND Touchdown

    (2:00) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 6 — CIN 14
  4. Q2 · 1:40IND Touchdown

    (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 12 — CIN 14
  5. Q2 · 1:31IND Two-point

    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-G.Minshew pass to 11-M.Pittman is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

    Score after this play: IND 14 — CIN 14
  6. Q3 · 11:44CIN Touchdown

    (11:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 87-T.Hudson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 14 — CIN 21
  7. Q3 · 3:01CIN Touchdown

    (3:01) 6-J.Browning left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 14 — CIN 28
  8. Q4 · 11:18CIN Field goal

    (11:18) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

    Score after this play: IND 14 — CIN 31
  9. Q4 · 2:00CIN Field goal

    (2:00) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

    Score after this play: IND 14 — CIN 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsBengals
Offensive plays6057
Total yards275385 (edge)
Yards per play4.66.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.040.07 (edge)
Success rate47% (edge)40%
Dropback rate73%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.040.20 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.29-0.04 (edge)
Third downs3/113/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)27 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)16
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers11

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

18/24, 275 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.0 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

26/39, 240 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.6 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

21 att, 79 yds, 1 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

13 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

8/11 for 95 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Chase BrownRB

3/3 for 80 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 25521:41Punt
2CINCIN 19492:01Punt
3INDIND 206252:36Punt
4CINCIN 85922:11Touchdown +7
5INDIND 2511555:16Missed field goal
6CINCIN 2812615:57Touchdown +7
7INDIND 2119698:22Touchdown +6
8CINCIN 25360:25Defensive touchdown
9CINCIN 25651:20Punt
10INDIND 41200:11End of half
11CINCIN 258753:22Touchdown +7
12INDIND 257132:06Punt
13CINCIN 2912716:33Touchdown +7
14INDIND 25541:45Punt
15CINCIN 236322:42Punt
16CININD 12482:18Field goal +3
17INDIND 257651:51Interception
18CINCIN 31481:47Punt
19INDIND 237272:25Turnover on downs
20CININD 356183:16Field goal +3
21INDIND 254131:55End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 92 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew26/392401130.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zack Moss13282.20-4.0
Trey Sermon3134.30-0.6
Gardner Minshew252.501.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman81195029%2.8
Will Mallory5546013%1.9
Josh Downs333208%1.9
Zack Moss4828021%-5.2
Alec Pierce232208%3.2
Kylen Granson2417011%1.2
Mo Alie-Cox11213%3.0
Andrew Ogletree02005%-1.7
Tyler Goodson11-203%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin580.000
DeForest Buckner250.001
Julian Blackmon420.000
Darrell Baker410.001
Ronnie Harrison310.011
Jaylon Jones310.000
Grover Stewart210.000
Kenny Moore200.001
Samson Ebukam110.000
Grant Stuard100.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jake Browning18/242752108.0
AJ McCarron1/1-1000-1.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon21793.811.0
Chase Brown8253.10-2.9
Jake Browning372.31-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chase Brown3380112%5.1
Tee Higgins2472016%4.8
Joe Mixon3446016%1.7
Ja'Marr Chase3429016%0.9
Tyler Boyd2323012%0.4
Tanner Hudson2321112%-4.3
Drew Sample22408%-0.2
Mitchell Wilcox11004%-0.4
Trayveon Williams11-104%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Logan Wilson460.001
Germaine Pratt260.500
Dax Hill230.000
Mike Hilton410.000
D.J. Turner300.000
Chidobe Awuzie210.002
Sam Hubbard210.000
Cam Sample110.500
Jordan Battle200.000
D.J. Reader110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -3
Closing total
45
IND moneyline
+124
CIN moneyline
-148

Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 45; the game landed 48 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
40°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
IND 7 days · CIN 6 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Zac Taylor