For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 14 at Cincinnati Bengals 34. Final.
Bengals -3 ✓O 45 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 14
Cincinnati Bengals 34, Colts 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:40, 2nd and 4, on Ronnie Harrison — 20.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:40 · 2nd and 4
Ronnie Harrison
Colts
(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 20.
Cincinnati Bengals 34–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:40, Colts +20.0% win probability on one snap.
20.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chase BrownBengalsQ1 6:42(6:42) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.2pts
Tee HigginsBengalsQ3 8:56(8:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to IND 24 for 46 yards (39-D.Baker).
10.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 2 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.0 for BengalsExpected points −7.98 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 2 points higher than the market did.play 74
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:40IND +20% win prob(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:42CIN +12% win prob(6:42) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:56CIN +10% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to IND 24 for 46 yards (39-D.Baker).
2nd · 2:00CIN +10% win prob(2:00) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:44CIN +9% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 87-T.Hudson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:24CIN +6% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to IND 45 for 26 yards (39-D.Baker).
2nd · 1:28
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tanner Hudson's 11-yard touchdown catch with 11:44 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th11:18Evan McPherson·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+314–31
4th2:00Evan McPherson·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+314–34
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryBengals
Colts2–5Bengals
275Total yards385
4.6Yards per play6.8
47%Success rate40%
27%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays7
19First downs16
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Colts: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Colts: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.20Bengals: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Colts: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.04Bengals: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 60 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Bengals’s 57 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Bengals 6.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's blitz rate sent, 3.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 6.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 8.3% in week 5.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 13.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.5% in week 13 against 11.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Bengals6.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteCIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 17.3% and 2.0 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive
75Will FriesG · Every snap100%64 snaps
73Blake FreelandT · Every snap100%64 snaps
79Bernhard RaimannT · Full-time95%61 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Full-time95%61 snaps
10Gardner MinshewQB · Full-time95%61 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Full-time95%61 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Full-time91%58 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time86%55 snaps
21Zack MossRB · Full-time84%54 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation78%50 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational38%24 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Rotational31%20 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational28%18 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational27%17 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational13%8 snaps
31Tyler GoodsonRB · Situational9%6 snaps
2D.J. MontgomeryWR · Situational8%5 snaps
65Josh SillsG · Situational6%4 snaps
62Wesley FrenchC · Situational5%3 snaps
4Sam EhlingerQB · Situational5%3 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Situational5%3 snaps
64Arlington HambrightG · Situational5%3 snaps
44Zaire FranklinOLB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Julius BrentsCBIsaiah LandDEEric JohnsonDTJack AndersonGE.J. SpeedOLBJonathan TaylorRBBraden SmithT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Browning pass−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 48-R.Harrison at CIN 36. 48-R.Harrison for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:40 · Bengals · 2nd & 4 at CIN 31 · gained nothing · -7.98 EP · −18.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 92 yards from the CIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
659
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1471%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0852%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3031%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2170%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.150%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 27
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 28
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 45
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Colts0Bengals6
Colts0Bengals7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 46
No good13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bengals 18
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 31
2nd quarter51 plays
Colts0Bengals13
Colts0Bengals14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Colts 1
Colts6Bengals14
Touchdown21 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Bengals 2
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Colts12Bengals14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
Colts14Bengals14
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 45
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Colts14Bengals20
Colts14Bengals21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Colts 11
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 38
Colts14Bengals27
Colts14Bengals28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Colts 1
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 27
4th quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Colts 44
Colts14Bengals31
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 10
Intercepted9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bengals 10
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 35
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 47
Colts14Bengals34
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -3
Closing total
45
Colts moneyline
+124
Bengals moneyline
-148
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 45; the game landed 48 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Colts 7 days · Bengals 6 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Zac Taylor
CIN +6% win prob
(1:28) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Chase. PENALTY on IND-40-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 25 - No Play.
1st · 15:00IND +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 18 for -7 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
