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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:16 AM ET · 16 to play
Jacksonville Jaguars 27 at Cleveland Browns 31. Final.
Browns -2.5 ✓O 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 14
Cleveland Browns 31, Jaguars 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:55, 1st and 10, on Martin Emerson — 13.8 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:55 · 1st and 10
Martin Emerson
Browns
(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Emerson at CLE 8. 23-M.Emerson ran ob at CLE 19 for 11 yards (17-E.Engram).
Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Cleveland Browns 31–27. Biggest swing: Q2 1:55, Browns +13.8% win probability on one snap.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Evan EngramJaguarsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram pushed ob at CLE 24 for 23 yards (22-G.Delpit). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram to CLE 24 for 23 yards (22-G.Delpit).
8.7pts
David BellBrownsQ4 12:42(12:42) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-Dav.Bell for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard].
10.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 17 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 17 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 2 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Jaguars198 of 211 plays carry both curves
(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Emerson at CLE 8. 23-M.Emerson ran ob at CLE 19 for 11 yards (17-E.Engram).
Swing +13.8 for BrownsExpected points +4.41 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 85
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:55JAX +14% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Emerson at CLE 8. 23-M.Emerson ran ob at CLE 19 for 11 yards (17-E.Engram).
4th · 12:42CLE +10% win prob(12:42) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-Dav.Bell for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard].
2nd · 2:00CLE +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram pushed ob at CLE 24 for 23 yards (22-G.Delpit). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram to CLE 24 for 23 yards (22-G.Delpit).
2nd · 6:18CLE +8% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:45CLE +8% win prob(11:45) 53-N.Harris and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 85-D.Njoku for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:03JAX +8% win prob(7:03) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 2-A.Cooper to CLE 22 for 17 yards (42-A.Wingard). FUMBLES (42-A.Wingard), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at CLE 25. 33-D.Lloyd pushed ob at CLE 12 for 13 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Njoku's 34-yard touchdown catch with 11:45 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:45David Njoku·34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe FlaccoLead never changed again+70–7
2nd13:46David Njoku·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+70–14
4th3:15Dustin Hopkins·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+321–31
4th1:37Evan Engram·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrencefrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point no good+627–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryBrowns
Jaguars3–6Browns
294Total yards392
4.0Yards per play5.5
35%Success rate42%
41%Third-down rate24%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays5
19First downs17
4Sacks taken1
4Turnovers3
The read
Browns ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Jaguars: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.12Browns: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Jaguars: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.16Browns: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Jaguars: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.04Browns: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 74 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Browns’s 71 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's play-action rate turned over: 30.4% in week 13 against 14.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.4% in week 13 against 21.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Browns21.1%
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.5%, 9.4 points below their season mean of 15.9% and 1.5 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%76 snaps
69Tyler ShatleyG · Every snap100%76 snaps
79Luke FortnerC · Every snap100%76 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%76 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time95%72 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Full-time89%68 snaps
7Zay JonesWR · Full-time84%64 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation78%59 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Heavy rotation68%52 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation62%47 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Rotational34%26 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational30%23 snaps
25D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Rotational26%20 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational13%10 snaps
14Elijah CooksWR · Situational9%7 snaps
87Josh PedersonTE · Situational9%7 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Tre HerndonCBTyson CampbellCBFolorunso FatukasiDTYasir AbdullahOLBNathan RourkeQBWalker LittleTBrenton StrangeTE
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Emerson at CLE 8. 23-M.Emerson ran ob at CLE 19 for 11 yards (17-E.Engram).
Q2 1:55 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at CLE 24 · gained nothing · -4.41 EP · −13.9% win probability
196 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 211 plays across 34 drives, personnel groupings on 196 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 206. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 34 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 75 yards from the CLE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
211 of 211 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
211
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
36%
Yards
682
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.2179%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.2171%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0375%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2178%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR6+1.4517%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.5440%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
211 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
211 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Jaguars0Browns6
Jaguars0Browns7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Jaguars 34
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Jaguars 24
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 34
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Browns 44
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 22
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 29
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 39
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter60 plays
Jaguars0Browns13
Jaguars0Browns14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Jaguars 30
Intercepted2 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Jaguars 37
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Browns 32
Fumble lost1 play
Jaguars6Browns14
Jaguars7Browns14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 10
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Browns 24
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 37
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Fumble lost5 plays
Jaguars7Browns20
Jaguars7Browns21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 4
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Jaguars13Browns21
Jaguars14Browns21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 1
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Jaguars 43
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter65 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Jaguars 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jaguars14Browns27
Jaguars14Browns28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 39
Jaguars20Browns28
Jaguars21Browns28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Browns 19
Punt14 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Jaguars 42
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 38
Jaguars21Browns31
Field goal6 plays
Jaguars27Browns31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Browns 2
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
