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2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

27

Cleveland BrownsWinner

31

CLE -2.5 ✓O 37.5 ✓

Cleveland Browns 31–27. Biggest swing: Q2 1:55, JAX +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CLE ↑JAX ↓
Q2 · 1:55JAX 7 — CLE 14JAX ball · 1st & 10CLE 63%

(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Emerson at CLE 8. 23-M.Emerson ran ob at CLE 19 for 11 yards (17-E.Engram).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:55JAX +14% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Emerson at CLE 8. 23-M.Emerson ran ob at CLE 19 for 11 yards (17-E.Engram).
  2. Q4 · 12:42CLE +10% win prob(12:42) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-Dav.Bell for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard].
  3. Q2 · 2:00CLE +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram pushed ob at CLE 24 for 23 yards (22-G.Delpit). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram to CLE 24 for 23 yards (22-G.Delpit).
  4. Q2 · 6:18CLE +8% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:45CLE Touchdown

    (11:45) 53-N.Harris and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 85-D.Njoku for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — CLE 7
  2. Q2 · 13:46CLE Touchdown

    (13:46) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — CLE 14
  3. Q2 · 6:18JAX Touchdown

    (6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — CLE 14
  4. Q3 · 9:46CLE Touchdown

    (9:46) (Shotgun) 68-M.Dunn and 69-L.Watson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 27-K.Hunt. 27-K.Hunt left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — CLE 21
  5. Q3 · 5:02JAX Touchdown

    (5:02) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne right guard to CLE 1 for no gain (33-R.Hickman, 22-G.Delpit). CLE-29-C.Mitchell was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-29-C.Mitchell was injured during the play. His return is Probable. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — CLE 21
  6. Q4 · 12:42CLE Touchdown

    (12:42) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-Dav.Bell for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — CLE 28
  7. Q4 · 8:57JAX Touchdown

    (8:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 11-P.Washington for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 21 — CLE 28
  8. Q4 · 3:15CLE Field goal

    (3:15) 7-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: JAX 21 — CLE 31
  9. Q4 · 1:37JAX Touchdown

    (1:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 27 — CLE 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsBrowns
Offensive plays7471
Total yards294392 (edge)
Yards per play4.05.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.19-0.12 (edge)
Success rate35%42% (edge)
Dropback rate77%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.18-0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.21-0.04 (edge)
Third downs7/17 (edge)4/17
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)25 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)17
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers43 (edge)

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Joe FlaccoQB

26/45, 311 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-1.7 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

28/50, 257 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

-7.3 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

12 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

14 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

11/12 for 95 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

6/8 for 91 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 258753:21Touchdown +7
2JAXJAX 16572:21Punt
3CLECLE 31421:30Punt
4JAXJAX 167452:16Punt
5CLECLE 10401:12Punt
6JAXJAX 18441:25Punt
7CLECLE 28410:59Punt
8JAXJAX 226121:51Punt
9CLECLE 285721:25Touchdown +7
10JAXJAX 22200:13Interception
11CLECLE 255382:46Interception
12JAXJAX 427133:38Punt
13CLECLE 51170:10Fumble
14JAXCLE 123120:39Touchdown +7
15CLECLE 255182:13Punt
16JAXJAX 446372:14Interception
17CLECLE 196230:40Punt
18JAXJAX 23400:20Punt
19CLECLE 256200:42Punt
20JAXJAX 21100:05End of half
21JAXJAX 25420:56Fumble
22CLEJAX 228224:25Touchdown +7
23JAXJAX 25502:01Punt
24CLECLE 332-40:12Fumble
25JAXCLE 257252:27Touchdown +7
26CLECLE 259314:17Punt
27JAXJAX 6391:32Interception
28CLEJAX 485481:36Touchdown +7
29JAXJAX 2511603:42Touchdown +7
30CLECLE 2912294:28Punt
31JAXJAX 205180:54Turnover on downs
32CLEJAX 37400:20Field goal +3
33JAXJAX 2511501:37Touchdown +6
34CLEJAX 46401:33End of game

9 of 34 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence28/50257334-7.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne14352.51-3.2
D'Ernest Johnson3124.00-0.3
Trevor Lawrence3113.70-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram111295224%9.5
Calvin Ridley41353027%-4.8
Travis Etienne443708%1.0
Zay Jones51429029%-6.0
Parker Washington232716%0.1
D'Ernest Johnson231606%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin Lloyd470.000
Montaric Brown700.001
Foyesade Oluokun420.000
Rayshawn Jenkins510.001
Josh Hines-Allen400.000
Andrew Wingard210.000
Gregory Junior120.000
Jeremiah Ledbetter120.000
Ross Matiscik200.000
Andre Cisco200.000

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco26/45311311-1.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jerome Ford12514.30-3.6
Kareem Hunt10272.711.4
Dorian Thompson-Robinson155.000.6
Pierre Strong100.00-0.7
Joe Flacco4-1-0.30-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
David Njoku6891219%4.0
Amari Cooper71477033%-9.1
Elijah Moore3642014%3.4
David Bell134117%4.5
Jerome Ford5631014%1.2
Cedric Tillman242309%-3.9
Kareem Hunt11302%-0.2
Jordan Akins11302%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah800.000
Grant Delpit511.000
Anthony Walker320.000
Greg Newsome500.014
Maurice Hurst401.000
Sione Takitaki130.000
Martin Emerson400.023
D'Anthony Bell300.000
Matthew Adams200.000
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Closing total
37.5
JAX moneyline
+120
CLE moneyline
-142

Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 58 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
39°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
JAX 6 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Kevin Stefanski