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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Rams193 of 206 plays carry both curves
(8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +26.4 for RavensExpected points +5.82 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 205
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 8:07LA +26% win prob(8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:22BAL +26% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:06BAL +21% win prob(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp to BAL 22 for 34 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Overtime · 9:07BAL +19% win prob(9:07) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to LA 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-A.Trammell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 20. 81-A.Trammell to LA 25 for 5 yards (5-J.Armour-Davis; 30-T.Simpson).
2nd · 9:48BAL +14% win prob(9:48) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 3-O.Beckham for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:34BAL +14% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tylan Wallace's 76-yard return touchdown with 8:07 left in overtime put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:37Lucas Havrisik·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+33–0
4th0:11Lucas Havrisik·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+331–31
Overtime8:07Tylan Wallace·76-yd return TD76-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+631–37
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryRavens
Rams4–4Ravens
411Total yards452
5.6Yards per play6.4
42%Success rate44%
38%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
11Explosive plays8
20First downs24
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Rams, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Rams: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Rams: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.29Ravens: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Rams: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.22Ravens: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 73 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Ravens’s 71 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 74.1%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 66.7% in week 5.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Ravens22.7%
leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 74.1%, 21.8 points above their season mean of 52.4% and 2.2 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
E.Evans punts−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 8:07 · Rams · 4th & 9 at LA 26 · gained nothing · -5.82 EP · −26.4% win probability
191 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 206 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 200. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 85 yards from the LA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
206 of 206 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
206
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
39%
Yards
861
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR73+0.1060%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2882%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.0947%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
206 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
206 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 35
Rams3Ravens0
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Ravens 9
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 45
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Rams 29
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Rams3Ravens6
Rams3Ravens7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 46
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter59 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Rams9Ravens7
Rams10Ravens7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Ravens 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Rams10Ravens13
Rams10Ravens14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Rams 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams16Ravens14
Rams17Ravens14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Ravens 7
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Rams20Ravens14
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Ravens 33
Rams20Ravens17
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Rams 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 29
Rams20Ravens20
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Rams 28
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 43
Rams22Ravens20
Drive ended3 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Ravens 15
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Ravens 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 41
4th quarter57 plays
Rams22Ravens23
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 47 to the Rams 15
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 27
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 37
Rams28Ravens23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Ravens 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Rams28Ravens29
Rams28Ravens31
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Rams 14
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Rams31Ravens31
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Ravens 18
The period ended3 plays
Overtime11 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Rams31Ravens37
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7.5
Closing total
42
Rams moneyline
+285
Ravens moneyline
-360
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 68 — over by 26.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 58°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; 0.44 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Rams 7 days · Ravens 14 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs John Harbaugh
4th · 4:47
BAL +13% win prob
(4:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:58LA +12% win prob(5:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson Aborted. 64-T.Linderbaum FUMBLES at BAL 3, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on BAL-8-L.Jackson, Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball, declined.
