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2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium

Los Angeles Rams

31

Baltimore RavensWinner

37

BAL -7.5 no coverO 42 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 37–31. Biggest swing: OT 8:07, LA +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4BAL ↑LA ↓
OT · 8:07LA 31 — BAL 37LA ball · 4th & 9BAL 74%

(8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 8:07LA +26% win prob(8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 1:22BAL +26% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 1:06BAL +21% win prob(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp to BAL 22 for 34 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
  4. OT · 9:07BAL +19% win prob(9:07) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to LA 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-A.Trammell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 20. 81-A.Trammell to LA 25 for 5 yards (5-J.Armour-Davis; 30-T.Simpson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:37LA Field goal

    (5:37) 8-L.Havrisik 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — BAL 0
  2. Q1 · 0:34BAL Touchdown

    (:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 3 — BAL 7
  3. Q2 · 12:06LA Touchdown

    (12:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 10 — BAL 7
  4. Q2 · 9:48BAL Touchdown

    (9:48) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 3-O.Beckham for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 10 — BAL 14
  5. Q2 · 5:06LA Touchdown

    (5:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-0-R.Smith, Face Mask, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 17 — BAL 14
  6. Q2 · 1:50LA Field goal

    (1:50) 8-L.Havrisik 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 20 — BAL 14
  7. Q2 · 0:12BAL Field goal

    (:12) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: LA 20 — BAL 17
  8. Q3 · 10:07BAL Field goal

    (10:07) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: LA 20 — BAL 20
  9. Q3 · 5:58LA Safety

    (5:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson Aborted. 64-T.Linderbaum FUMBLES at BAL 3, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on BAL-8-L.Jackson, Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball, declined.

    Score after this play: LA 22 — BAL 20
  10. Q4 · 11:21BAL Field goal

    (11:21) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: LA 22 — BAL 23
  11. Q4 · 4:47LA Touchdown

    (4:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LA 28 — BAL 23
  12. Q4 · 1:22BAL Touchdown

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LA 28 — BAL 31
  13. Q4 · 0:11LA Field goal

    (:11) 8-L.Havrisik 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 31 — BAL 31
  14. OT · 8:07BAL Touchdown

    (8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LA 31 — BAL 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsRavens
Offensive plays7371
Total yards411452 (edge)
Yards per play5.66.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.100.17 (edge)
Success rate42%44% (edge)
Dropback rate60%76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.130.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.22
Third downs6/16 (edge)4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps2024 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

24/43, 316 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

12.6 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

23/41, 294 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

5.6 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

25 att, 114 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

8/10 for 115 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Odell BeckhamWR

4/10 for 97 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 157203:24Punt
2LALA 2413526:01Field goal +3
3BALBAL 257201:35Punt
4LALA 85132:06Punt
5BALBAL 344661:29Touchdown +7
6LALA 259653:24Touchdown +7
7BALBAL 257752:21Touchdown +7
8LALA 2511554:40Touchdown +7
9BALBAL 25200:14Interception
10LALA 497323:01Field goal +3
11BALBAL 2513621:36Field goal +3
12LALA 25200:09End of half
13LALA 25591:26Punt
14BALBAL 238493:32Field goal +3
15LALA 25723:23Punt
16BALBAL 10350:45Safety
17LALA 298333:49Punt
18BALBAL 2012655:48Field goal +3
19LALA 25520:53Punt
20BALBAL 28492:23Punt
21LALA 159853:20Touchdown +6
22BALBAL 2515773:25Touchdown +8
23LALA 258571:09Field goal +3
24BALBAL 25200:07Turnover on downs
25BALBAL 25541:04Punt
26LALA 25461:14Defensive touchdown

12 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford23/412943025.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams251144.602.5
Royce Freeman393.00-1.0
Puka Nacua166.000.3
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cooper Kupp810115126%7.5
Puka Nacua5984023%3.1
Davis Allen4550113%4.4
Demarcus Robinson31046126%0.4
Tutu Atwell01003%-0.4
Kyren Williams34-1010%-5.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones641.001
John Johnson710.000
Jordan Fuller500.000
Michael Hoecht230.000
Ahkello Witherspoon400.011
Jonah Williams120.000
Bobby Brown300.000
Derion Kendrick300.000
Russ Yeast300.000
Christian Rozeboom110.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson24/4331631212.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson11706.401.3
Keaton Mitchell9546.000.6
Gus Edwards6152.50-2.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Odell Beckham41097125%4.3
Isaiah Likely5783118%4.1
Zay Flowers61060125%6.4
Nelson Agholor5532013%1.8
Rashod Bateman2424010%-0.9
Justice Hill121205%0.8
Keaton Mitchell12805%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith550.000
Kyle Hamilton430.000
Brandon Stephens510.000
Nnamdi Madubuike321.000
Geno Stone410.000
Patrick Queen230.000
Marlon Humphrey310.001
Marcus Williams400.001
Del'Shawn Phillips110.000
Travis Jones111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Closing total
42
LA moneyline
+285
BAL moneyline
-360

Ravens closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 68 — over by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
57°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
LA 7 days · BAL 14 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs John Harbaugh