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polling · 1800s tick · as of 4:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 14
It turned at Q4 1:57, 1st and 10, on Ivan Pace — 21.8 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 3–0 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:57, Vikings +21.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:57 · 1st and 10
Ivan Pace
Vikings
(1:57) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 40-I.Pace at LV 34. 40-I.Pace to LV 34 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
21.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 23% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 8 of 20 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 14 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — -0.20 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(1:57) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 40-I.Pace at LV 34. 40-I.Pace to LV 34 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Greg Joseph's 36-yard field goal with 2:00 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Greg Joseph36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+33–01 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryRaiders
Vikings ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 71 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Raiders’s 53 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Raiders 1.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LV's sack or hit rate, 23.9%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-1.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 71 snaps
Raiders1.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 89%
Tendencies room →Vikings56.0%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 50 early downs
Raiders59.5%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 50%
Tendencies room →Vikings28.3%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Raiders8.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.3 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.9%.
Raiders28.6%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 97%
Tendencies room →Vikings44.4%right on their number · −8.0 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Raiders30.4%inside their normal wobble · +8.2 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 30%
Tendencies room →Vikings13.9%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Raiders23.9%leaned — got home · +10.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
LV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.9%, 10.5 points above their season mean of 13.4% and 1.6 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
21/32, 171 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-19.2 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
9/13, 83 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.7 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Alexander Mattison banked 0.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −2.8 | 98% | 100% | 34% | 48% | 7/10, 53 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | −2.8 | 93% | 85% | 24% | 37% | 5/8, 53 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 7.5 | −0.9 | 98% | 100% | 21% | 3% | 5/6, 25 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −1.7 | 56% | 52% | 9% | 0% | 12 car, 35 yd · 3/3, 7 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.0 | −1.4 | 63% | 53% | 7% | 0% | 13 car, 34 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 6.6 | +0.5 | 32% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 66 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −1.4 | 48% | 58% | 17% | 8% | 3/5, 46 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Featured Receiver | 5.5 | −4.7 | 71% | 65% | 21% | 19% | 4/7, 15 yd |
| Aidan O'ConnellQB · Starter QB | 5.0 | −3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/32, 171 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +0.3 | 96% | 89% | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 27 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.3 | 18% | 15% | 9% | 12% | 2/3, 27 yd |
| Joshua DobbsQB · Starter QB | 4.6 | −6.0 | 74% | — | 0% | — | 10/23, 63 yd · 5 car, 21 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 3.9 | +0.3 | 28% | 39% | 7% | 3% | 1 car, 12 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Nick MullensQB | 3.3 | −0.8 | 26% | — | 0% | — | 9/13, 83 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −4.9 | 24% | 24% | 15% | 20% | 2/5, 13 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.7 | 94% | 92% | 7% | 8% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 37% | 31% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 0.8 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.7 | +0.2 | 11% | 11% | 0% | — | 1 car, 7 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.3 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D.J. TurnerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 39% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 50% | 48% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:57) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 40-I.Pace at LV 34. 40-I.Pace to LV 34 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
Q4 1:57 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at LV 25 · gained nothing · -4.53 EP · −26.9% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
1 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 56 yards from the MIN 26 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings3
Raiders0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 9/13 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 10/23 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −13.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Ty Chandler | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Joshua Dobbs |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 24% | +1.0 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Pace | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Metellus | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 21/32 | 171 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −19.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_14_MIN_LV
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 3 — under by 37.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 21 |
| 4.2 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +1.8 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 21% | +2.9 |
| Jalen Nailor | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 15% | −3.1 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
| 34 |
| 2.6 |
| 0 |
| −3.2 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 10 | 53 | 0 | 34% | −7.6 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 17% | −2.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 21% | −1.4 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −1.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 6 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyree Wilson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Amik Robertson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bilal Nichols | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
