2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

MIN -3 pushU 40.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Minnesota Vikings 3–0 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:57, MIN +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:57MIN 3 — LV 0LV ball · 1st & 10MIN 71%

(1:57) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 40-I.Pace at LV 34. 40-I.Pace to LV 34 for no gain (17-D.Adams).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:57MIN +22% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 40-I.Pace at LV 34. 40-I.Pace to LV 34 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
Q4 · 2:34LV +14% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short right to 3-J.Addison pushed ob at LV 22 for 20 yards (25-T.Moehrig). LV-21-A.Robertson was injured during the play.
Q3 · 10:57LV +14% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to MIN 11 for 38 yards (7-B.Murphy).
Q3 · 9:16MIN +11% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow to MIN 18 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-5-M.Blackmon at MIN 16.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q4 · 2:00MIN Field goal
(2:00) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — LV 0

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Raiders
Offensive plays	71	53
Total yards	231 (edge)	202
Yards per play	3.3	3.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20 (edge)	-0.46
Success rate	39% (edge)	23%
Dropback rate	65%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28 (edge)	-0.66
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	8/20 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	5	4 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.46.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

21/32, 171 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-19.2 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Nick MullensQB

9/13, 83 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.7 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

10 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Ty ChandlerRB

12 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

7/10 for 53 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · -7.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

5/8 for 53 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 20	14	37	7:45	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 20	4	-3	1:26	Punt
3	LV	LV 34	8	29	3:42	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 14	8	11	3:22	Punt
5	LV	LV 27	4	-5	1:53	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 21	12	48	6:20	Missed field goal
7	LV	LV 39	4	9	1:34	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 10	9	32	2:56	Punt
9	LV	LV 10	6	26	1:02	End of half
10	MIN	MIN 14	8	3	2:41	Punt
11	LV	LV 48	5	44	3:10	Fumble
12	MIN	MIN 16	9	22	4:40	Punt
13	LV	LV 16	7	17	3:38	Punt
14	MIN	MIN 32	7	13	2:37	Punt
15	LV	LV 11	4	6	1:04	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 20	4	4	0:47	Punt
17	LV	LV 31	4	4	2:13	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 30	5	33	2:15	Punt
19	LV	LV 13	4	6	1:36	Punt
20	MIN	MIN 26	13	62	3:22	Field goal +3
21	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:05	Interception
22	MIN	LV 34	4	6	1:45	Punt
23	LV	LV 31	1	29	0:07	Fumble

1 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 62 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	9/13	83	0	0	0	1.7
Joshua Dobbs	10/23	63	0	0	5	-13.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alexander Mattison	10	66	6.6	1.7
Ty Chandler	12	35	2.9	-2.5
Joshua Dobbs	5	21	4.2	-0.7
C.J. Ham	1	7	7.0	0.3
Kene Nwangwu	2	3	1.5	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	5	8	53	24%	1.0
Jordan Addison	2	3	27	9%	1.7
Justin Jefferson	2	3	27	9%	1.8
K.J. Osborn	4	7	15	21%	2.9
Jalen Nailor	2	5	13	15%	-3.1
Ty Chandler	3	3	7	9%	-0.8
Johnny Mundt	1	1	4	3%	-0.2
Alexander Mattison	0	1	0	3%	-0.9
Brandon Powell	0	1	0	3%	-1.2
Josh Oliver	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ivan Pace	6	6	1.0	1	1
Josh Metellus	3	3	0.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	4	1	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	3	2	1.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	3	1	0.0	0	1
Mekhi Blackmon	1	3	0.0	0	0
Harrison Phillips	3	1	1.0	0	0
Theo Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Akayleb Evans	1	1	0.0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	1	1	0.0	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aidan O'Connell	21/32	171	0	1	4	-19.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	13	34	2.6	-3.2
Ameer Abdullah	1	12	12.0	0.2
Zamir White	2	8	4.0	-0.2
Aidan O'Connell	1	2	2.0	2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	7	10	53	34%	-7.6
Hunter Renfrow	3	5	46	17%	-2.6
Jakobi Meyers	5	6	25	21%	-1.4
Josh Jacobs	2	2	16	7%	1.7
Michael Mayer	1	2	14	7%	-1.8
Ameer Abdullah	2	2	7	7%	-1.3
Austin Hooper	1	1	5	3%	-0.7
Tre Tucker	0	1	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Robert Spillane	7	3	1.0	0
Maxx Crosby	6	3	2.0	0
Divine Deablo	3	2	0.0	0
Nate Hobbs	4	0	0.0	0
Trevon Moehrig	3	1	0.0	1
Jack Jones	3	1	0.0	1
Tyree Wilson	3	1	1.0	0
Marcus Epps	2	2	0.0	1
Amik Robertson	3	0	0.0	1
Bilal Nichols	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 40.5
MIN moneyline: -155
LV moneyline: +130

Vikings closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 3 — under by 37.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: MIN 13 days · LV 14 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Antonio Pierce