For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 7, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 14
It turned at Q3 1:09, 1st and 10, on Mykal Walker — 24.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:09 · 1st and 10
Mykal Walker
Steelers
(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 38-M.Walker (50-E.Roberts) at NE 46. 38-M.Walker to NE 16 for 30 yards (15-E.Elliott).
New England Patriots 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 1:09, Steelers +24.1% win probability on one snap.
24.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 38-M.Walker (50-E.Roberts) at NE 46. 38-M.Walker to NE 16 for 30 yards (15-E.Elliott).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ezekiel Elliott's 11-yard touchdown catch with 11:18 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Ezekiel Elliott11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Bailey ZappeLead never changed again+77–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categorySteelers
Patriots ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 55 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Steelers’s 66 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Steelers 3.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 6.3%, is past their previous low of 9.3% in week 11 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
NE's play-action rate turned over: 30.3% in week 13 against 12.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots2.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 55 snaps
Steelers-3.8 ptsright on their number · +2.3 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 84%
Tendencies room →Patriots54.8%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 42 early downs
Steelers56.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.2 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 35%
Tendencies room →Patriots12.5%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Steelers9.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −6.7 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Patriots0.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.2 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers60.0%leaned — went for it · +31.8 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 58%
Tendencies room →Patriots30.2%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Steelers40.6%leaned — sent pressure · +12.0 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 29%
Tendencies room →Patriots11.6%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Steelers6.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.97× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
PIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.3%, 9.7 points below their season mean of 15.9% and 2.0 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
19/28, 240 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
1.3 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
22/35, 190 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-15.5 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected
Receiving · NE
4/6 for 90 yds, 0 TD
23% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Hunter Henry banked 11.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.0 | +5.4 | 91% | 81% | 31% | 0% | 22 car, 68 yd · 7/8, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Bailey ZappeQB · Starter QB | 20.9 | +8.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/28, 240 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 13 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Starter QB | 20.6 | +2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/35, 190 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 19.0 | +11.2 | 88% | 75% | 12% | 19% | 3/3, 40 yd, 2 TD |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 14.7 | +4.4 | 69% | 81% | 20% | 49% | 3/7, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | +3.9 | 98% | 91% | 23% | 43% | 4/6, 90 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Receiving Back | 8.0 | −2.6 | 53% | 47% | 14% | 0% | 7 car, 11 yd · 4/5, 29 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −2.1 | 57% | 47% | 9% | 0% | 12 car, 29 yd · 3/3, 19 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | −0.6 | 86% | 88% | 17% | 12% | 5/6, 19 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | −2.9 | 69% | 81% | 20% | 22% | 3/7, 18 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Featured Receiver | 4.7 | −2.3 | 95% | 94% | 19% | 25% | 3/5, 17 yd |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.5 | 16% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.6 | 59% | 49% | 9% | 21% | 1/3, 21 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −3.8 | 43% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 49% | 31% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | +0.7 | 29% | 21% | 0% | — | 1 car, 12 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 35% | 44% | 4% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Johnson.
Q4 2:01 · Steelers · 4th & 2 at PIT 49 · gained nothing · -2.40 EP · −21.8% win probability
157 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots6
Steelers0Patriots7Steelers0Patriots7Steelers3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots13Steelers3Patriots14Steelers3Patriots20Steelers3Patriots21Steelers3Patriots21Steelers9Patriots21Steelers10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots21Steelers16Patriots21Steelers18How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 19/28 | 240 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 68 | 3.1 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 6 | 90 | 0 | 23% | −2.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 8 | 72 | 1 | 31% | +4.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahlani Tavai | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 22/35 | 190 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −15.5 |
| Connor Heyward | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_14_NE_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 30; the game landed 39 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 40 | 2 | 12% | +6.0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 19% | −2.2 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lawrence Guy | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Mack Wilson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Najee Harris | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 20% | −1.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 14% | −1.4 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 9% | −2.4 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +0.7 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 17% | −3.2 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 20% | −5.1 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +2.0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elandon Roberts | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Herbig | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mykal Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Martinez | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
