2023 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 7, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -6 upsetO 30 ✓Steelers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 1:09, NE +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:09NE 21 — PIT 10NE ball · 1st & 10NE 89%

(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 38-M.Walker (50-E.Roberts) at NE 46. 38-M.Walker to NE 16 for 30 yards (15-E.Elliott).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:09NE +24% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 38-M.Walker (50-E.Roberts) at NE 46. 38-M.Walker to NE 16 for 30 yards (15-E.Elliott).
Q4 · 2:01NE +19% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Johnson.
Q4 · 13:31NE +17% win prob(13:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 11 yards to NE 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-30-M.Mapu.
Q4 · 15:00NE +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 30-J.Warren to NE 7 for 1 yard (8-J.Bentley; 3-M.Wilson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:18NE Touchdown
(11:18) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 15-E.Elliott for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — PIT 0
Q1 · 6:44PIT Field goal
(6:44) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: NE 7 — PIT 3
Q2 · 14:19NE Touchdown
(14:19) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — PIT 3
Q2 · 7:43NE Touchdown
(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 85-H.Henry for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 21 — PIT 3
Q2 · 2:55PIT Touchdown
(2:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 21 — PIT 10
Q4 · 11:47PIT Touchdown
(11:47) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NE 21 — PIT 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Steelers
Offensive plays	55	66
Total yards	303 (edge)	267
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.31
Success rate	33%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.18 (edge)
Third downs	4/13 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	14	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

19/28, 240 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

1.3 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

22/35, 190 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-15.5 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Ezekiel ElliottRB

22 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

8 att, 30 yds, 1 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

4/6 for 90 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Ezekiel ElliottRB

7/8 for 72 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	10	75	3:48	Touchdown +7
2	PIT	PIT 31	8	20	4:33	Field goal +3
3	NE	NE 25	5	12	1:50	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 21	4	4	1:00	Punt
5	NE	NE 27	6	28	1:44	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 15	5	12	2:18	Interception
7	NE	PIT 11	3	11	0:33	Touchdown +7
8	PIT	PIT 25	5	2	1:29	Punt
9	NE	NE 28	4	6	1:32	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 20	4	5	1:25	Punt
11	NE	NE 41	5	59	2:10	Touchdown +7
12	PIT	PIT 25	10	70	4:48	Touchdown +7
13	NE	NE 11	10	28	2:31	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 9	1	0	0:19	End of half
15	PIT	PIT 17	13	32	7:09	Punt
16	NE	NE 20	5	21	2:39	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 26	4	7	2:05	Punt
18	NE	NE 31	4	12	2:09	Interception
19	PIT	NE 16	4	9	1:04	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 7	4	8	1:31	Punt
21	PIT	NE 26	5	21	1:39	Touchdown +8
22	NE	NE 25	7	20	3:20	Punt
23	PIT	PIT 20	8	18	3:26	Punt
24	NE	NE 14	4	9	2:14	Punt
25	PIT	PIT 27	6	22	0:49	Turnover on downs
26	NE	PIT 48	4	14	1:40	Punt
27	PIT	PIT 13	2	45	0:15	End of game

6 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	19/28	240	3	1	2	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	22	68	3.1	0	-5.3
Bailey Zappe	3	13	4.3	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	6	90	0	23%	-2.6
Ezekiel Elliott	7	8	72	1	31%	4.3
Hunter Henry	3	3	40	2	12%	6.0
Tyquan Thornton	3	5	17	0	19%	-2.2
Ty Montgomery	1	2	17	0	8%	0.9
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.1
Jalen Reagor	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jahlani Tavai	6	7	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	1	5	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	3	3	0.5	0	1
Jonathan Jones	6	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen Mills	2	3	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	2	2	0.0	0	1
Lawrence Guy	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	1	2	0.0	1	1
Mack Wilson	2	1	1.0	0	1
Anfernee Jennings	3	0	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	22/35	190	1	1	2	-15.5
Connor Heyward	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	8	30	3.8	1	2.7
Najee Harris	12	29	2.4	0	-4.6
Calvin Austin	1	12	12.0	0	0.7
Jaylen Warren	7	11	1.6	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	3	7	57	1	20%	-1.7
Jaylen Warren	4	5	29	0	14%	-1.4
Allen Robinson	1	3	21	0	9%	-2.4
Najee Harris	3	3	19	0	9%	0.7
George Pickens	5	6	19	0	17%	-3.2
Pat Freiermuth	3	7	18	0	20%	-5.1
Connor Heyward	2	2	15	0	6%	2.0
Darnell Washington	1	2	12	0	6%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Elandon Roberts	2	4	1.0	0	1
Nick Herbig	4	2	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	3	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	4	1	1.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	2	0.0	0	0
Joey Porter	4	0	0.0	0	1
Mykal Walker	1	2	0.0	1	1
Damontae Kazee	3	0	0.0	0	0
Blake Martinez	1	2	0.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -6
Closing total: 30
NE moneyline: +220
PIT moneyline: -270

Steelers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 30; the game landed 39 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: NE 4 days · PIT 4 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Mike Tomlin