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Philadelphia Eagles 13 at Dallas Cowboys 33. Final.
Cowboys -3.5 ✓U 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 14
Dallas Cowboys 33, Eagles 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:50, 1st and 20, on Jalen Hurts — 10.7 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:50 · 1st and 20
Jalen Hurts
Cowboys
(5:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard to DAL 20 for 11 yards (6-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (6-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-6-D.Wilson at DAL 21.
Dome
Cowboys closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Dallas Cowboys 33–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:50, Cowboys +10.7% win probability on one snap.
10.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeVonta SmithEaglesQ1 6:41(6:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith to DAL 21 for 30 yards (28-M.Hooker).
9.5pts
Dak PrescottEaglesQ3 10:52(10:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 39 for -6 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox) [91-F.Cox], RECOVERED by PHI-98-J.Carter at DAL 42. 98-J.Carter for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Eagles at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.18 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Eagles167 of 175 plays carry both curves
(5:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard to DAL 20 for 11 yards (6-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (6-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-6-D.Wilson at DAL 21.
Swing +10.7 for CowboysExpected points +4.63 for CowboysThe model had Eagles 4 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:50PHI +11% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard to DAL 20 for 11 yards (6-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (6-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-6-D.Wilson at DAL 21.
1st · 6:41DAL +10% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith to DAL 21 for 30 yards (28-M.Hooker).
3rd · 10:52PHI +7% win prob(10:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 39 for -6 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox) [91-F.Cox], RECOVERED by PHI-98-J.Carter at DAL 42. 98-J.Carter for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:09DAL +6% win prob(10:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:39DAL +5% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Gallup. PENALTY on PHI-2-D.Slay, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 47 - No Play.
1st · 5:06DAL +5% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 48 for 26 yards (33-B.Roby).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
CeeDee Lamb's 13-yard touchdown catch with 10:09 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:09CeeDee Lamb·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–7
1st0:55C.Golston reported in as eligible. 17-B.Aubrey·60-yd field goal60-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+30–10
2nd12:38Jake Elliott·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+33–10
3rd4:54Brandon Aubrey·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+313–27
4th9:44Brandon Aubrey·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+313–30
4th1:13Brandon Aubrey·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+313–33
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryCowboys
Eagles2–6Cowboys
324Total yards394
6.2Yards per play5.3
44%Success rate46%
44%Third-down rate56%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays7
17First downs20
1Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Eagles: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.04Cowboys: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Eagles: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.00Cowboys: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.09Cowboys: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 52 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 74 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 1, Cowboys 3.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.9 pts in week 13 against −10.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.9% in week 13 against 48.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Cowboys6.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.9%, 8.9 points below their season mean of 15.8% and 1.4 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts left−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard to DAL 20 for 11 yards (6-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (6-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-6-D.Wilson at DAL 21.
Q1 5:50 · Eagles · 1st & 20 at DAL 31 · gained 10 · -4.63 EP · −10.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
718
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.2257%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1260%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0644%
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR8+0.0188%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.5620%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Eagles0Cowboys6
Eagles0Cowboys7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 21
Eagles0Cowboys10
Field goal17 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Eagles 32
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
2nd quarter51 plays
Eagles3Cowboys10
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Cowboys 34
Eagles3Cowboys16
Eagles3Cowboys17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 1
Eagles6Cowboys17
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 18
Eagles6Cowboys23
Eagles6Cowboys24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
3rd quarter42 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 49
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Cowboys 43
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 31
Eagles12Cowboys24
Touchdown3 plays
Eagles13Cowboys24
Eagles13Cowboys27
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 22
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 30
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter35 plays
Eagles13Cowboys30
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Eagles 27
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 35
Eagles13Cowboys33
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Eagles 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3.5
Closing total
52.5
Eagles moneyline
+145
Cowboys moneyline
-175
Cowboys closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 46 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Cowboys 10 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Mike McCarthy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 14:54DAL +5% win prob(14:54) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann pass short right to 13-O.Zaccheaus to DAL 39 for 28 yards (18-J.Tolbert, 89-P.Hendershot).
2nd · 11:56DAL +4% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson to PHI 45 for 27 yards (32-R.Blankenship). PHI-32-R.Blankenship was injured during the play.
