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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 16 at San Francisco 49ers 28. Final.
49ers -14.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 14
San Francisco 49ers 28, Seahawks 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:50, 1st and 10, on DK Metcalf — 13.5 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:50 · 1st and 10
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -14.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 28–16. Biggest swing: Q1 9:50, Seahawks +13.5% win probability on one snap.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jason MyersSeahawksQ1 1:01(1:01) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
10.0pts
Deebo Samuel49ersQ2 8:26(8:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.0pts
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Seahawks at 2 of 11 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.25 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.12 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Seahawks145 of 152 plays carry both curves
(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.5 for 49ersExpected points −3.19 for 49ersThe model had Seahawks 32 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:50SF +14% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:26SF +11% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:01SF +10% win prob(1:01) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
2nd · 14:24SEA +8% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at SEA 30. 20-J.Love to SEA 37 for 7 yards (23-C.McCaffrey).
1st · 15:00SF +8% win prob(15:00) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to SEA 3 for 72 yards (53-B.Mafe).
2nd · 12:08SEA +7% win prob(12:08) 26-Z.Charbonnet right tackle to SEA 48 for -3 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
2nd · 0:28
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deebo Samuel's 54-yard touchdown catch with 8:26 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Seahawks: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.2649ers: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Seahawks: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.2749ers: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Seahawks: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.2649ers: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 56 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against 49ers’s 52 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, 49ers 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers10.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteSEA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.6%, 10.0 points above their season mean of 21.6% and 1.1 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%59 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%59 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%59 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%59 snaps
2Drew LockQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
72Abraham LucasT · Full-time90%53 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time90%53 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time81%48 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation71%42 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation61%36 snaps
9Kenneth WalkerRB · Heavy rotation56%33 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational46%27 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Rotational42%25 snaps
89Will DisslyTE · Rotational32%19 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Situational17%10 snaps
70Jason PetersT · Situational10%6 snaps
31DeeJay DallasRB · Situational2%1 snap
83Dareke YoungWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Tre BrownCBMcClendon CurtisGPatrick O'ConnellILBFrank ClarkOLBGeno SmithQBRaiqwon O'NealTD'Wayne EskridgeWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:26 · 49ers · 3rd & 11 at SF 46 · gained 54 · +6.01 EP · +22.8% win probability
143 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 83 yards from the SF 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
851
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1566%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.3284%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.2638%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3255%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1570%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.0733%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.2943%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Seahawks049ers6
Seahawks049ers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 3
Seahawks649ers7
Seahawks749ers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 31
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 27
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Seahawks 32
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 16
Seahawks1049ers7
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the 49ers 14
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 40
2nd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the Seahawks 48
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the 49ers 49
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Seahawks1049ers13
Seahawks1049ers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 47
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 47
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Seahawks 45
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 40
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 47
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 32
Seahawks1049ers20
Seahawks1049ers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 1
Seahawks1649ers21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the 49ers 25
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Seahawks1649ers27
Seahawks1649ers28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Seahawks 44
Intercepted2 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 44
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 39
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 44
Intercepted10 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the 49ers 41
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Seahawks 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -14.5
Closing total
44.5
Seahawks moneyline
+650
49ers moneyline
-1000
49ers closed -14.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Seahawks 10 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
SF +6% win prob
(:28) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to SEA 7 for 2 yards (97-N.Bosa).
4th · 14:16SF +4% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-20-J.Love, Defensive Holding, declined.
