2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -14.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓49ers closed -14.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.

San Francisco 49ers 28–16. Biggest swing: Q1 9:50, SF +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:50SEA 6 — SF 7SEA ball · 1st & 10SF 95%

(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:50SF +14% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 8:26SF +11% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:01SF +10% win prob(1:01) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 · 14:24SEA +8% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at SEA 30. 20-J.Love to SEA 37 for 7 yards (23-C.McCaffrey).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 14:06SF Touchdown
(14:06) 24-J.Mason right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 0 — SF 7
Q1 · 9:50SEA Touchdown
(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 7 — SF 7
Q1 · 1:01SEA Field goal
(1:01) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 10 — SF 7
Q2 · 8:26SF Touchdown
(8:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 10 — SF 14
Q3 · 2:01SF Touchdown
(2:01) 19-D.Samuel left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 10 — SF 21
Q3 · 0:32SEA Touchdown
(:32) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SEA 16 — SF 21
Q4 · 14:16SF Touchdown
(14:16) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-20-J.Love, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 16 — SF 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	49ers
Offensive plays	56	52
Total yards	324	528 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8	10.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	0.26 (edge)
Success rate	34%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.26 (edge)
Third downs	2/11	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

19/27, 368 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

12.8 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Drew LockQB

22/31, 269 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.2 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

16 att, 145 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

9 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

7/9 for 149 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

6/9 for 126 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	4	75	0:57	Touchdown +7
2	SEA	SEA 25	10	70	4:19	Touchdown +7
3	SF	SF 25	5	2	1:42	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 29	4	3	1:39	Punt
5	SF	SF 8	4	8	1:35	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 29	7	55	3:52	Field goal +3
7	SF	SF 15	5	37	1:43	Interception
8	SEA	SEA 37	6	6	3:01	Punt
9	SF	SF 17	6	83	2:54	Touchdown +7
10	SEA	SEA 25	6	28	3:02	Punt
11	SF	SF 15	8	45	4:13	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 8	2	3	1:03	End of half
13	SEA	SEA 31	5	9	1:01	Punt
14	SF	SF 20	5	31	3:56	Punt
15	SEA	SEA 13	7	16	4:05	Punt
16	SF	SF 25	8	75	4:00	Touchdown +7
17	SEA	SEA 22	5	78	1:34	Touchdown +6
18	SF	SF 25	5	75	1:16	Touchdown +7
19	SEA	SEA 25	2	0	0:09	Interception
20	SF	SF 38	2	36	0:55	Fumble
21	SEA	SEA 20	6	29	1:49	Punt
22	SF	SF 30	7	14	3:05	Punt
23	SEA	SEA 20	9	27	5:11	Interception
24	SF	SF 29	7	47	2:59	End of game

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 83 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	22/31	269	2	2	4	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Zach Charbonnet	9	44	4.9	-1.4
Kenneth Walker	8	21	2.6	-3.0
Drew Lock	3	5	1.7	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	6	6	89	0	19%	8.7
DK Metcalf	2	5	52	1	16%	0.7
Noah Fant	2	4	35	0	13%	0.2
Kenneth Walker	4	5	33	0	16%	-0.3
Colby Parkinson	2	2	28	1	6%	2.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	4	7	25	0	23%	-3.8
Zach Charbonnet	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.8
Will Dissly	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Julian Love	5	2	0.0	1	1
Jordyn Brooks	3	3	0.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	3	3	0.0	0	0
Leonard Williams	2	2	1.0	0	1
Jarran Reed	1	3	1.0	0	0
Tariq Woolen	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jamal Adams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	3	0	1.0	0	0
Boye Mafe	3	0	0.0	0	0
Bobby Wagner	3	0	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	19/27	368	2	1	3	12.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	16	145	9.1	0	3.7
Jordan Mason	4	20	5.0	1	1.3
Brock Purdy	2	7	3.5	0	-2.8
Deebo Samuel	1	1	1.0	1	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	7	9	149	1	33%	10.8
Brandon Aiyuk	6	9	126	0	33%	-1.3
George Kittle	3	5	76	1	19%	4.5
Christian McCaffrey	1	1	8	0	4%	-0.2
Jordan Mason	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.1
Charlie Woerner	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.5
Jauan Jennings	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	4	4	0.0	1	1
Ji'Ayir Brown	5	1	0.0	1	1
Isaiah Oliver	3	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	3	2	1.5	0	1
Tashaun Gipson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	2	2	0.0	0	0
Clelin Ferrell	3	1	1.0	0	0
Ambry Thomas	4	0	0.0	0	0
Javon Kinlaw	2	1	0.5	0	0
Kevin Givens	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -14.5
Closing total: 44.5
SEA moneyline: +650
SF moneyline: -1000

49ers closed -14.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: SEA 10 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.