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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 14
It turned at Q1 9:50, 1st and 10, on DK Metcalf — 13.5 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
San Francisco 49ers 28–16. Biggest swing: Q1 9:50, Seahawks +13.5% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:50 · 1st and 10
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Seahawks at 2 of 11 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.25 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.12 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Deebo Samuel's 54-yard touchdown catch with 8:26 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Deebo Samuel54-yd TD catch54-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+710–14
Colby Parkinson25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Drew Lock · two-point no good+616–217 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 56 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against 49ers’s 52 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, 49ers 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks2.2 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 55 snaps
49ers2.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 78%
Tendencies room →Seahawks58.1%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 43 early downs
49ers51.2%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Seahawks31.6%leaned — faked the run · +10.0 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers19.4%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 25.7%.
49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 51%
Tendencies room →Seahawks22.6%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers15.8%right on their number · −5.1 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Seahawks22.6%inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers10.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
SEA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.6%, 10.0 points above their season mean of 21.6% and 1.1 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
19/27, 368 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
12.8 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
22/31, 269 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-1.2 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Deebo Samuel banked 16.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 34.0 | +16.2 | 78% | 87% | 33% | 24% | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 7/9, 149 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 21.4 | +10.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 368 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 16.6 | +7.7 | 93% | 100% | 19% | 22% | 3/5, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.6 | +0.3 | 91% | 97% | 33% | 49% | 6/9, 126 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.3 | +5.4 | 89% | 97% | 4% | 2% | 16 car, 145 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Drew LockQB · Starter QB | 15.3 | +1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/31, 269 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 5 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 14.9 | +5.7 | 81% | 82% | 19% | 28% | 6/6, 89 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.2 | +3.9 | 90% | 95% | 16% | 47% | 2/5, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +7.8 | 46% | 42% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan MasonRB | 9.6 | +5.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −1.5 | 56% | 63% | 16% | 0% | 8 car, 21 yd · 4/5, 33 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Featured Receiver | 6.5 | −4.0 | 71% | 76% | 23% | 21% | 4/7, 25 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 5.8 | +0.5 | 42% | 34% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 44 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −0.6 | 61% | 63% | 13% | 9% | 2/4, 35 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.1 | 32% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.1 | 41% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 33% | 48% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ronnie BellWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:26 · 49ers · 3rd & 11 at SF 46 · gained 54 · +6.01 EP · +22.8% win probability
143 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 83 yards from the SF 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seahawks0
49ers6Seahawks049ers7Seahawks649ers7Seahawks749ers7Seahawks1049ers7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Seahawks1049ers13Seahawks1049ers14Seahawks1049ers20Seahawks1049ers21Seahawks1649ers21How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks1649ers27Seahawks1649ers28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/31 | 269 | 2 | 2 | 4 | −1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Kenneth Walker | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Drew Lock |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 6 | 89 | 0 | 19% | +8.7 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 5 | 52 | 1 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Love | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/27 | 368 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +12.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_14_SEA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -14.5, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 1.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.3 |
| +0.7 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Kenneth Walker | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 16% | −0.3 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 6% | +2.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 23% | −3.8 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarran Reed | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 145 | 9.1 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 9 | 149 | 1 | 33% | +10.8 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 9 | 126 | 0 | 33% | −1.3 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 76 | 1 | 19% | +4.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Givens | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
