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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 14
It turned at Q4 1:16, 3rd and 10, on Chris Godwin — 28.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29–25. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, Buccaneers +28.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:16 · 3rd and 10
Chris Godwin
Buccaneers
(1:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 15 for 32 yards (34-C.Phillips).
28.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 5 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(1:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 15 for 32 yards (34-C.Phillips).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cade Otton's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:36 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Cade Otton11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker MayfieldLead never changed again+729–2510 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryFalcons
Falcons ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 67 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Falcons’s 69 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Falcons 4.
Falcons outgained Buccaneers 436-290 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's pass rate over expected, −18.0 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.9 points clear of the next team along.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −2.7σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate, 36.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 5.6 points clear of the next team along.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
ATL's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
ATL's play-action rate, 42.2%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 6.5 points clear of the next team along.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
ATL's blitz rate sent, 9.7%, is past their previous low of 17.1% in week 5 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.7% in week 13 against 59.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-18.0 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −16.2 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−2.70× that swing) · 67 snaps
Falcons-3.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 81%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers36.7%leaned — ran early · −17.6 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 49 early downs
Falcons59.3%leaned — passed early · +9.8 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 60%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers19.4%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Falcons42.2%leaned — faked the run · +14.6 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers33.3%right on their number · +4.7 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons25.0%right on their number · −9.0 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 76%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers42.2%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Falcons9.7%leaned — sat back · −15.4 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers6.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Falcons3.2%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
TB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.0 pts, 16.2 points below their season mean of -1.8 pts and 2.7 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
26/40, 347 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.4 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected
Passing · TB
14/29, 144 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.4 expected points added · -17.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Drake London banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.2 | +9.9 | 76% | 80% | 28% | 45% | 10/11, 172 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 25.4 | +3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/40, 347 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.5 | +6.1 | 84% | 94% | 7% | 0% | 25 car, 102 yd · 2/2, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 20.1 | +2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/29, 144 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 19.8 | −1.0 | 78% | 87% | 18% | 0% | 10 car, 34 yd, 1 TD · 5/7, 54 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.7 | +4.4 | 85% | 89% | 15% | 20% | 3/6, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris GodwinWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.3 | −7.5 | 84% | 90% | 38% | 50% | 5/11, 53 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | −0.2 | 97% | 97% | 17% | 20% | 2/5, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 7.8 | +1.1 | 18% | 10% | 7% | 2% | 8 car, 40 yd · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | −3.2 | 69% | 74% | 18% | 5% | 4/7, 27 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 4.0 | −0.7 | 21% | 11% | 0% | — | 9 car, 40 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.6 | 29% | 24% | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.7 | 32% | 30% | 5% | 5% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 21% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 1.8 | −8.3 | 93% | 94% | 21% | 25% | 1/6, 8 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.3 | 85% | 74% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 0.7 | −0.9 | 17% | 13% | 0% | — | 3 car, 7 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.2 | 25% | 24% | 8% | 25% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep middle to 5-D.London to TB 3 for 28 yards (29-C.Izien).
Q4 0:04 · Falcons · 2nd & 10 at TB 31 · gained 28 · -1.91 EP · −25.0% win probability
174 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 185 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 75 yards from the ATL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers3
Falcons0How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers3Falcons3How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers9Falcons3Buccaneers10Falcons3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers10Falcons9Buccaneers10Falcons10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Buccaneers12Falcons10How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Buccaneers18Falcons10Buccaneers19Falcons10How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Buccaneers19Falcons16Buccaneers19Falcons17Buccaneers22Falcons17How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Buccaneers22Falcons23Buccaneers22Falcons25How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers28Falcons25Buccaneers29Falcons25How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/29 | 144 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Baker Mayfield |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 5 | 11 | 53 | 0 | 38% | −1.6 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 7% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyon McCollum | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Antoine Winfield | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 26/40 | 347 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_14_TB_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 54 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 1 |
| −0.8 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +2.8 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7% | +2.8 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 17% | +0.5 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 21% | −1.6 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Ko Kieft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Desmond Ridder | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 10 | 11 | 172 | 0 | 28% | +7.9 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 15% | +4.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 18% | −4.8 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 18% | −2.0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Smith | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Huggins | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clark Phillips | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DeMarcco Hellams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
