2023 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -1.5 upsetO 41.5 ✓DomeFalcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29–25. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, ATL +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:16TB 22 — ATL 25TB ball · 3rd & 10ATL 70%

(1:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 15 for 32 yards (34-C.Phillips).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:16ATL +29% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 15 for 32 yards (34-C.Phillips).
Q4 · 0:36ATL +20% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-27-R.Grant, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 0:04TB +20% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep middle to 5-D.London to TB 3 for 28 yards (29-C.Izien).
Q4 · 6:10ATL +18% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 5-D.London to TB 30 for 45 yards (24-C.Davis).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:32TB Field goal
(9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 3 — ATL 0
Q1 · 1:26ATL Field goal
(1:26) 6-Y.Koo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: TB 3 — ATL 3
Q2 · 15:00TB Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — ATL 3
Q2 · 12:15ATL Touchdown
(12:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — ATL 10
Q2 · 2:44TB Safety
(2:44) 9-D.Ridder sacked at ATL -2 for -10 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], touched at ATL -1, recovered by ATL-40-K.Smith at ATL -5. 40-K.Smith tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (79-P.O'Connor).
Score after this play: TB 12 — ATL 10
Q3 · 4:14TB Touchdown
(4:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 19 — ATL 10
Q4 · 11:13ATL Touchdown
(11:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 19 — ATL 17
Q4 · 6:14TB Field goal
(6:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 22 — ATL 17
Q4 · 3:30ATL Touchdown
(3:30) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: TB 22 — ATL 25
Q4 · 0:36TB Touchdown
(:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-27-R.Grant, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 29 — ATL 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Falcons
Offensive plays	67	69
Total yards	290	436 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	37%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	46%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	6/16	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Falcons outgained Buccaneers 436–290 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

26/40, 347 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

14/29, 144 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.4 expected points added · -17.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

25 att, 102 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

9 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

10/11 for 172 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

3/6 for 57 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	10	38	5:33	Field goal +3
2	ATL	ATL 25	17	73	8:04	Field goal +3
3	TB	TB 25	5	2	0:58	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 14	1	0	0:05	Interception
5	TB	ATL 8	3	8	0:23	Touchdown +7
6	ATL	ATL 25	8	77	2:48	Touchdown +7
7	TB	TB 25	10	28	5:25	Turnover on downs
8	ATL	ATL 47	5	21	2:24	Missed field goal
9	TB	TB 40	4	2	1:36	Punt
10	ATL	ATL 8	1	-8	0:08	Safety
11	TB	TB 34	5	7	1:38	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 47	6	19	0:58	Missed field goal
13	ATL	ATL 25	7	22	2:35	Punt
14	TB	TB 7	4	8	1:01	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 46	4	0	0:25	Punt
16	TB	TB 9	4	1	1:14	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 31	4	4	0:59	Punt
18	TB	TB 34	10	66	4:40	Touchdown +7
19	ATL	ATL 25	10	23	3:44	Punt
20	TB	TB 20	4	5	1:20	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 33	8	56	2:52	Touchdown +7
22	TB	TB 25	11	55	5:00	Field goal +3
23	ATL	ATL 25	7	77	2:47	Touchdown +8
24	TB	TB 25	14	70	2:52	Touchdown +7
25	ATL	ATL 25	7	72	0:31	End of game

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 77 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	14/29	144	2	0	1	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rachaad White	25	102	4.1	0	-3.4
Chase Edmonds	8	40	5.0	0	-0.2
Baker Mayfield	3	3	1.0	1	-0.8
Trey Palmer	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	5	11	53	0	38%	-1.6
Rachaad White	2	2	33	1	7%	2.8
Chase Edmonds	2	2	18	0	7%	2.8
Cade Otton	2	5	16	1	17%	0.5
David Moore	1	1	11	0	3%	1.7
Mike Evans	1	6	8	0	21%	-1.6
Trey Palmer	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Ko Kieft	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zyon McCollum	6	3	0.0	0	2
Antoine Winfield	4	4	1.0	0	0
K.J. Britt	4	4	0.0	0	1
Anthony Nelson	2	3	0.0	0	0
Lavonte David	2	2	0.0	0	1
Shaquil Barrett	2	2	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	4	0	0.0	1	3
Greg Gaines	1	2	1.0	0	0
Joe Tryon	2	1	0.0	0	0
Calijah Kancey	2	1	1.0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	26/40	347	1	1	3	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyler Allgeier	9	40	4.4	0	-0.1
Bijan Robinson	10	34	3.4	1	0.3
Desmond Ridder	4	15	3.8	1	2.1
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	7	2.3	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	10	11	172	0	28%	7.9
Kyle Pitts	3	6	57	1	15%	4.1
Bijan Robinson	5	7	54	0	18%	-4.8
Jonnu Smith	4	7	27	0	18%	-2.0
KhaDarel Hodge	1	2	18	0	5%	0.1
MyCole Pruitt	2	2	15	0	5%	0.2
Mack Hollins	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.3
Scott Miller	0	3	0	0	8%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Kaden Elliss	7	3	0
Jessie Bates	6	2	1
Andre Smith	4	3	0
Albert Huggins	2	4	0
Richie Grant	4	2	0
Clark Phillips	3	2	2
DeMarcco Hellams	2	1	0
Calais Campbell	3	0	1
Lorenzo Carter	2	1	0
A.J. Terrell	1	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -1.5
Closing total: 41.5
TB moneyline: +105
ATL moneyline: -125

Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 54 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: TB 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Arthur Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.