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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 at Atlanta Falcons 25. Final.
Falcons -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:16, 3rd and 10, on Chris Godwin — 28.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:16 · 3rd and 10
Chris Godwin
Buccaneers
(1:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 15 for 32 yards (34-C.Phillips).
O 41.5 ✓
Dome
Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29–25. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, Buccaneers +28.6% win probability on one snap.
28.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cade OttonBuccaneersQ4 0:36(:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-27-R.Grant, Defensive Holding, declined.
20.3pts
Drake LondonBuccaneersQ4 0:04(:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep middle to 5-D.London to TB 3 for 28 yards (29-C.Izien).
19.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 5 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Buccaneers176 of 185 plays carry both curves
(1:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 15 for 32 yards (34-C.Phillips).
Swing −28.6 for FalconsExpected points −2.76 for FalconsThe model had Buccaneers 3 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:16ATL +29% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 15 for 32 yards (34-C.Phillips).
4th · 0:36ATL +20% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-27-R.Grant, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 0:04TB +20% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep middle to 5-D.London to TB 3 for 28 yards (29-C.Izien).
4th · 6:10ATL +18% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 5-D.London to TB 30 for 45 yards (24-C.Davis).
4th · 11:54ATL +15% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short middle to 7-B.Robinson to TB 3 for 33 yards (31-A.Winfield; 7-S.Barrett).
1st · 0:25TB +15% win prob(:25) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 7-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis at ATL 8. 24-C.Davis to ATL 8 for no gain (7-B.Robinson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cade Otton's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:36 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:32Chase McLaughlin·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–0
1st1:26Younghoe Koo·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–3
Falcons ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Buccaneers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.02Falcons: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.02Falcons: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Buccaneers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.01Falcons: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 67 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Falcons’s 69 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons outgained Buccaneers 436-290 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, −18.0 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −9.1 pts in week 9.
2.7 times their own weekly swing below their number.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's early-down pass rate, 36.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 5.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 43.8% in week 9.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's play-action rate, 42.2%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 14 — 6.5 points clear of the next team along.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.7% in week 13 against 59.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Falcons3.2%
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.0 pts, 16.2 points below their season mean of -1.8 pts and 2.7 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Ridder pass−25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep middle to 5-D.London to TB 3 for 28 yards (29-C.Izien).
Q4 0:04 · Falcons · 2nd & 10 at TB 31 · gained 28 · -1.91 EP · −25.0% win probability
174 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 75 yards from the ATL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
726
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.0141%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32+0.1581%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.2231%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.1144%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.3063%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.6371%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR7-0.9057%
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Buccaneers3Falcons0
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 37
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Buccaneers3Falcons3
Field goal17 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 27
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Intercepted1 play
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Buccaneers9Falcons3
Buccaneers10Falcons3
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers10Falcons9
Buccaneers10Falcons10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 36
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 42
No good5 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Buccaneers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Buccaneers 44
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Buccaneers12Falcons10
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 41
No good8 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Buccaneers 34
3rd quarter48 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 7 to the Buccaneers 15
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Buccaneers 13
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runScreenCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Buccaneers18Falcons10
Buccaneers19Falcons10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Falcons 31
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 48
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 25
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Buccaneers19Falcons16
Buccaneers19Falcons17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Buccaneers 3
Buccaneers22Falcons17
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 20
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers22Falcons23
Buccaneers22Falcons25
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Buccaneers28Falcons25
Buccaneers29Falcons25
Touchdown16 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
