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2023 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 11, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
28
27
Tennessee Titans 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, TEN +27% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 42 for -3 yards (58-H.Landry).
How the points landed
(8:31) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle intended for 32-T.Spears INTERCEPTED by 92-Z.Sieler at TEN 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 0 — MIA 7(6:57) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — MIA 7(:05) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: TEN 10 — MIA 7(9:38) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: TEN 10 — MIA 10(:12) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: TEN 13 — MIA 10(12:41) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. PENALTY on MIA-44-B.Ferguson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: TEN 13 — MIA 13(5:38) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 13 — MIA 20(4:39) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 13 — MIA 27(2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Ogbah]. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: TEN 21 — MIA 27(1:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 28 — MIA 27Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 68 | 69 |
| Total yards | 406 (edge) | 366 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 (edge) | 5.3 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.07 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 46% | 49% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 62% | 59% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.29 (edge) | -0.17 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.30 | 0.16 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/13 (edge) | 4/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 19 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
23/38, 327 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
8.8 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
23/33, 240 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-7.4 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected
Receiving · TEN
7/12 for 124 yds, 1 TD
33% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 0 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 2 | MIA | MIA 28 | 9 | 65 | 4:09 | Fumble | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 7 | 3 | 2 | 0:49 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 25 | 7 | 10 | 3:23 | Punt | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 12 | 11 | 56 | 5:56 | Punt | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 14 | 15 | 73 | 7:13 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 28 | 10 | 46 | 5:02 | Missed field goal | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 21 | 4 | 13 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 31 | 4 | 8 | 0:28 | Punt | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 21 | 6 | 74 | 0:28 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 21 | 12 | 60 | 5:25 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | TEN | TEN 25 | 8 | 16 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 9 | 4 | 6 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 14 | TEN | TEN 35 | 12 | 70 | 5:44 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 28 | 8 | 54 | 2:32 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 46 | 5 | 5 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 20 | 8 | 32 | 4:41 | Punt | |
| 18 | MIA | TEN 7 | 3 | 7 | 0:33 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | TEN | TEN 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:06 | Fumble | |
| 20 | MIA | TEN 12 | 3 | 8 | 0:54 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | TEN | TEN 25 | 11 | 82 | 1:54 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 22 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 8 | 0:25 | Punt | |
| 23 | TEN | TEN 36 | 5 | 61 | 0:26 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 24 | MIA | MIA 26 | 7 | 16 | 1:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | TEN | MIA 42 | 1 | 0 | 0:20 | End of game |
9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 82 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 23/38 | 327 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 34 | 2.0 | 2 | -2.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 12 | 124 | 1 | 33% | 4.4 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 8 | 89 | 0 | 22% | 3.7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Avery | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Von Wallace |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/33 | 240 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 55 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2.2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 11% | 1.6 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3% | 1.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | 1.2 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8% | -2.3 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harold Landry | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Peko | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.3 |
| Devon Achane | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 8 | 79 | 0 | 24% | 3.8 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 15% | 3.5 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 12% | -0.4 |
| Devon Achane | 5 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 27% | -2.5 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | 0.0 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | 0.3 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShon Elliott | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Duke Riley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Bethel | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
