2023 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 11, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Miami Dolphins

MIA -14 upsetO 45 ✓Dolphins closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, TEN +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:26TEN 28 — MIA 27MIA ball · 4th & 2TEN 64%

(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 42 for -3 yards (58-H.Landry).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:26TEN +27% win prob(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 42 for -3 yards (58-H.Landry).
Q4 · 6:16MIA +25% win prob(6:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-22-E.Campbell at TEN 7.
Q2 · 0:18MIA +13% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins to MIA 10 for 45 yards (25-X.Howard).
Q4 · 1:53MIA +13% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:31MIA Touchdown
(8:31) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle intended for 32-T.Spears INTERCEPTED by 92-Z.Sieler at TEN 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 0 — MIA 7
Q2 · 6:57TEN Touchdown
(6:57) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — MIA 7
Q2 · 0:05TEN Field goal
(:05) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: TEN 10 — MIA 7
Q3 · 9:38MIA Field goal
(9:38) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: TEN 10 — MIA 10
Q3 · 0:12TEN Field goal
(:12) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: TEN 13 — MIA 10
Q4 · 12:41MIA Field goal
(12:41) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. PENALTY on MIA-44-B.Ferguson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: TEN 13 — MIA 13
Q4 · 5:38MIA Touchdown
(5:38) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 13 — MIA 20
Q4 · 4:39MIA Touchdown
(4:39) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 13 — MIA 27
Q4 · 2:46TEN Touchdown
(2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Ogbah]. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: TEN 21 — MIA 27
Q4 · 1:53TEN Touchdown
(1:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 28 — MIA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Dolphins
Offensive plays	68	69
Total yards	406 (edge)	366
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	46%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

23/38, 327 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

8.8 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

23/33, 240 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-7.4 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

21 att, 96 yds, 2 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

7 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

7/12 for 124 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Tyjae SpearsRB

6/8 for 89 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	0	1:37	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 28	9	65	4:09	Fumble
3	TEN	TEN 7	3	2	0:49	Defensive touchdown
4	TEN	TEN 25	7	10	3:23	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 12	11	56	5:56	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 14	15	73	7:13	Touchdown +7
7	MIA	MIA 28	10	46	5:02	Missed field goal
8	TEN	TEN 21	4	13	0:55	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 31	4	8	0:28	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 21	6	74	0:28	Field goal +3
11	MIA	MIA 21	12	60	5:25	Field goal +3
12	TEN	TEN 25	8	16	2:52	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 9	4	6	0:50	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 35	12	70	5:44	Field goal +3
15	MIA	MIA 28	8	54	2:32	Field goal +3
16	TEN	TEN 46	5	5	1:49	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 20	8	32	4:41	Punt
18	MIA	TEN 7	3	7	0:33	Touchdown +7
19	TEN	TEN 25	2	0	0:06	Fumble
20	MIA	TEN 12	3	8	0:54	Touchdown +7
21	TEN	TEN 25	11	82	1:54	Touchdown +8
22	MIA	MIA 25	5	8	0:25	Punt
23	TEN	TEN 36	5	61	0:26	Touchdown +7
24	MIA	MIA 26	7	16	1:29	Turnover on downs
25	TEN	MIA 42	1	0	0:20	End of game

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 82 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Will Levis	23/38	327	1	1	1	8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	17	34	2.0	2	-2.0
Tyjae Spears	7	29	4.1	0	0.0
Will Levis	4	15	3.8	0	-3.5
Treylon Burks	1	5	5.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	7	12	124	1	33%	4.4
Tyjae Spears	6	8	89	0	22%	3.7
Chigoziem Okonkwo	5	6	46	0	17%	2.2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	4	28	0	11%	1.6
Chris Moore	1	1	22	0	3%	1.3
Derrick Henry	1	2	17	0	6%	1.2
Treylon Burks	1	3	1	0	8%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	6	3	0.0	0
Tre Avery	6	1	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	6	0	0.0	1
K'Von Wallace	5	1	0.0	0
Jack Gibbens	3	3	0.0	0
Roger McCreary	4	2	0.0	1
Harold Landry	4	1	3.0	0
Amani Hooker	4	1	0.0	1
Kyle Peko	2	0	0.0	0
Denico Autry	2	0	0.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	23/33	240	0	0	5	-7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	21	96	4.6	2	3.3
Devon Achane	7	47	6.7	0	1.2
Tua Tagovailoa	3	15	5.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	6	8	79	24%	3.8
Tyreek Hill	4	5	61	15%	3.5
Cedrick Wilson	2	4	30	12%	-0.4
Devon Achane	5	9	24	27%	-2.5
Durham Smythe	2	3	16	9%	0.0
Alec Ingold	1	1	13	3%	0.6
Braxton Berrios	2	2	13	6%	0.3
Raheem Mostert	1	1	4	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
DeShon Elliott	4	4	0.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	4	3	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	5	2	0.0	0	1
Bradley Chubb	2	3	0.0	0	1
Christian Wilkins	3	2	1.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kader Kohou	4	0	0.0	0	1
Duke Riley	4	0	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	1	3	0.0	1	1
Justin Bethel	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -14
Closing total: 45
TEN moneyline: +625
MIA moneyline: -950

Dolphins closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 55 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 64°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: TEN 8 days · MIA 8 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Mike McDaniel