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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 4:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 11, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee28
BY 1final margin
DolphinsMiami27
Tennessee Titans 28 at Miami Dolphins 27. Final.
Dolphins -14 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 14
Tennessee Titans 28, Dolphins 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:26, 4th and 2, on Tua Tagovailoa — 27.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
O 45 ✓
Dolphins closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, Titans +27.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:26 · 4th and 2
Tua Tagovailoa
Titans
(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 42 for -3 yards (58-H.Landry).
27.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeAndre HopkinsTitansQ2 0:18(:18) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins to MIA 10 for 45 yards (25-X.Howard).
12.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetDolphinsQ4 6:16(6:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-22-E.Campbell at TEN 7.
25.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Titans won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 13 on third down.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Titans183 of 195 plays carry both curves
(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 42 for -3 yards (58-H.Landry).
Swing −27.5 for DolphinsExpected points −1.41 for DolphinsThe model had Titans 4 points higher than the market did.play 193
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:26TEN +27% win prob(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 42 for -3 yards (58-H.Landry).
4th · 6:16MIA +25% win prob(6:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-22-E.Campbell at TEN 7.
2nd · 0:18MIA +13% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins to MIA 10 for 45 yards (25-X.Howard).
4th · 1:53MIA +13% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:16MIA +12% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 32-T.Spears to MIA 6 for 30 yards (29-B.Jones). FUMBLES (29-B.Jones), ball out of bounds at MIA 5. Miami challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
4th · 0:48TEN +10% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane to MIA 45 for 1 yard (96-D.Autry).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 1:53 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:46DeAndre Hopkins·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Will Levisfrom Will Levis · two-point good+821–27
4th1:53Derrick Henry·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+728–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryDolphins
Titans7–2Dolphins
406Total yards366
6.0Yards per play5.3
46%Success rate49%
38%Third-down rate31%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays7
22First downs19
1Sacks taken5
2Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Titans: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.04Dolphins: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Titans: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.17Dolphins: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Titans: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.16Dolphins: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 68 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 69 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Titans 6, Dolphins 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 27.1% in week 13 against 9.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Dolphins19.0%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteTEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.8%, 10.8 points below their season mean of 20.6% and 1.3 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Dillon RadunzT · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiT · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Jaelyn DuncanT · Every snap100%71 snaps
8Will LevisQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Full-time89%63 snaps
72Calvin ThrockmortonG · Heavy rotation69%49 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation68%48 snaps
32Tyjae SpearsRB · Heavy rotation66%47 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Heavy rotation65%46 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational48%34 snaps
11Chris MooreWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
88Trevon WescoTE · Rotational35%25 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Rotational31%22 snaps
86Kevin RaderTE · Situational14%10 snaps
18Kyle PhilipsWR · Situational4%3 snaps
14Colton DowellWR · Situational3%2 snaps
20Jonathan WardRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Kristian FultonCBJeffery SimmonsDTMike BrownFSCaleb MurphyOLBTrevis GipsonOLBMalik WillisQBJosh WhyleTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Ryan TannehillQB
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
70Kendall LammT · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Austin JacksonT · Every snap100%72 snaps
66Lester CottonG · Every snap100%72 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Every snap100%72 snaps
65Robert JonesG · Full-time92%66 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Full-time82%59 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Heavy rotation78%56 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Heavy rotation64%46 snaps
11Cedrick WilsonWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Rotational47%34 snaps
0Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational46%33 snaps
28Devon AchaneRB · Rotational46%33 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational40%29 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Situational21%15 snaps
85River CracraftWR · Situational19%14 snaps
58Connor WilliamsC · Situational8%6 snaps
23Jeffery WilsonRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Eli AppleCBRobert HuntGSkylar ThompsonQBJevon HollandSSTerron ArmsteadTTyler KroftTERobbie ChosenWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Bailey punts+29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-22-E.Campbell at TEN 7.
Q4 6:16 · Dolphins · 4th & 15 at MIA 42 · gained nothing · +5.73 EP · +29.4% win probability
181 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 190. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 86 yards from the TEN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
46%
Yards
771
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2172%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR35+0.1237%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1877%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.8510%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2243%
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Titans 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Titans0Dolphins6
Touchdown4 plays
Titans0Dolphins7
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 42
The period ended9 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Titans 45
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Titans 42
Titans6Dolphins7
Titans7Dolphins7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Dolphins 1
No good10 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Titans 26
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 26
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Dolphins 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Titans10Dolphins7
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Dolphins 10
3rd quarter42 plays
Titans10Dolphins10
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Titans 2
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 41
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Dolphins 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Titans13Dolphins10
Field goal14 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Dolphins 5
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter66 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Titans13Dolphins13
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Titans 3
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Dolphins 49
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Titans 49
Titans13Dolphins19
Titans13Dolphins20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Titans 7 to the Titans 3
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Titans13Dolphins26
Titans13Dolphins27
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Titans 5
Titans19Dolphins27
Titans21Dolphins27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Dolphins 3
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 33
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Titans27Dolphins27
Titans28Dolphins27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Dolphins 3
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Titanscategory by categoryDolphins
Titans0
Dolphins6
