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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 15
It turned at Q4 0:01, 4th and 5, on Eddy Pineiro — 27.3 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 9–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Panthers +27.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 4th and 5
Eddy Pineiro
Panthers
(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
27.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Falcons at 2 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — -0.28 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.60 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Eddy Pineiro's 23-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Eddy Pineiro23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+37–94 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryPanthers
Panthers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 50 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Panthers’s 60 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Panthers 3.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's play-action rate, 61.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 11.9 points clear of the next team along.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · +2.7σ from their own normal
ATL's pass rate over expected, −19.7 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate, 36.4%, is past their previous low of 39.2% in week 13 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
CAR's pass rate over expected, −18.7 pts, is past their previous low of −14.5 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 80.0% in week 14 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.1 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.2% in week 14 against 4.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-19.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.8 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 50 snaps
Panthers-18.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.2 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 83%
Tendencies room →Falcons41.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 36 early downs
Panthers36.4%leaned — ran early · −18.6 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 67%
Tendencies room →Falcons61.9%off script — faked the run · +34.2 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+2.67× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Panthers14.3%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.0%.
Panthers20.0%leaned — took the kick · −32.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±22.1 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Falcons10.7%leaned — sat back · −14.3 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Panthers19.0%inside their normal wobble · −11.8 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Falcons17.9%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Panthers4.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
ATL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 61.9%, 34.2 points above their season mean of 27.7% and 2.7 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
18/24, 167 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.9 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
12/20, 152 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.1 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jonnu Smith banked 5.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.3 | −2.3 | 73% | 68% | 9% | 3% | 22 car, 87 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | −1.9 | 95% | 96% | 30% | 31% | 4/7, 43 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +5.2 | 33% | 43% | 11% | 14% | 2/2, 61 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 7.9 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/20, 152 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, -2 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 7.6 | +0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/24, 167 yd · 4 car, 9 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | +0.6 | 91% | 96% | 22% | 31% | 4/5, 32 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Receiving Back | 7.0 | −2.9 | 27% | 33% | 16% | 4% | 5 car, -2 yd · 1/3, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | +0.6 | 65% | 71% | 21% | 25% | 3/4, 37 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 6.1 | −1.2 | 50% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 14 car, 45 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +2.4 | 83% | 71% | 9% | 10% | 2/2, 32 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −0.6 | 27% | 14% | 9% | 0% | 4 car, 31 yd · 2/2, 1 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | 0.0 | 85% | 90% | 16% | 28% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 3.3 | −3.3 | 27% | 32% | 9% | 2% | 6 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| D.J. CharkWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.3 | 74% | 93% | 9% | 22% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.6 | 21% | 29% | 4% | 8% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.7 | 37% | 33% | 5% | 6% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Tucker FiskTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.6 | 38% | 29% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 0.4 | −8.5 | 58% | 67% | 16% | 2% | 7 car, 11 yd · 1/3, 3 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 19% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 25% | 29% | 5% | 20% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 0:01 · Panthers · 4th & goal at ATL 5 · gained nothing · +0.05 EP · +25.9% win probability
141 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 153 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 90 yards from the CAR 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
Falcons6
Panthers0Falcons7Panthers0Falcons7Panthers3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Falcons7Panthers6How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Falcons7Panthers9Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 12/20 | 152 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 | −9.5 |
| Desmond Ridder |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 61 | 0 | 11% | +3.2 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Bates | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcco Hellams | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/24 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_15_ATL_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 32; the game landed 16 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| -2 |
| -0.4 |
| 0 |
| −3.5 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 | −3.7 |
| +3.7 |
| Drake London | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 16% | +2.5 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16% | −1.9 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16% | −3.8 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clark Phillips | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Harrison | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lacale London | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 0 | −6.4 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 30% | −3.8 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 9% | +1.5 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 22% | −0.6 |
| D.J. Chark | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +1.1 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +1.7 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Thurman | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Wormley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hill | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Donte Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
