2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Carolina PanthersWinner

ATL -3 upsetU 32 ✓Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 9–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, CAR +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:01ATL 7 — CAR 9CAR ball · 4th & 5CAR 73%

(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:01CAR +27% win prob(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q3 · 1:33ATL +17% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end to ATL 21 for 1 yard (13-T.Hill). FUMBLES (13-T.Hill), RECOVERED by CAR-0-B.Burns at ATL 24.
Q4 · 7:44ATL +16% win prob(7:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods at CAR 3. 25-X.Woods to CAR 5 for 2 yards (5-D.London).
Q4 · 1:47CAR +16% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ATL 2 for 6 yards (37-D.Hellams; 3-J.Bates).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 4:55ATL Touchdown
(4:55) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short middle to 84-C.Patterson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — CAR 0
Q2 · 0:26CAR Field goal
(:26) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — CAR 3
Q4 · 13:35CAR Field goal
(13:35) 4-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — CAR 6
Q4 · 0:01CAR Field goal
(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — CAR 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Panthers
Offensive plays	50	60
Total yards	205	286 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	4.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	-0.20 (edge)
Success rate	36%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	42%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.60	-0.28 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

18/24, 167 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.9 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

12/20, 152 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.1 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

22 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

-6.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

14 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

4/7 for 43 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -3.8 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

3/4 for 37 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 23	11	42	5:39	Turnover on downs
2	CAR	CAR 36	5	31	2:38	Turnover on downs
3	ATL	ATL 34	4	-1	1:29	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 37	4	6	0:57	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 4	7	14	3:16	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 35	4	-3	1:01	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 17	4	4	2:06	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 31	4	4	2:30	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 42	6	16	1:58	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 8	4	9	2:20	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 37	4	63	1:17	Touchdown +7
12	CAR	CAR 25	13	65	4:27	Field goal +3
13	ATL	ATL 26	2	0	0:22	End of half
14	CAR	CAR 40	6	30	2:49	Turnover on downs
15	ATL	ATL 30	7	30	3:16	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 13	10	39	6:45	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 20	3	1	0:44	Fumble
18	CAR	ATL 24	6	17	2:54	Field goal +3
19	ATL	ATL 31	12	36	5:57	Interception
20	CAR	CAR 5	17	88	7:35	Field goal +3

4 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	12/20	152	1	1	0	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tyler Allgeier	14	45	3.2	-1.6
Bijan Robinson	7	11	1.6	-9.5
Desmond Ridder	5	-2	-0.4	-3.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	5	-2	-0.4	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jonnu Smith	2	2	61	0	11%	3.2
Kyle Pitts	3	4	37	0	21%	3.7
Drake London	2	3	24	0	16%	2.5
KhaDarel Hodge	1	1	10	0	5%	1.0
Tucker Fisk	1	1	9	0	5%	1.2
Tyler Allgeier	1	1	6	0	5%	0.0
Bijan Robinson	1	3	3	0	16%	-1.9
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	3	2	1	16%	-3.8
Van Jefferson	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jessie Bates	5	5	0.0
DeMarcco Hellams	3	5	0.0
Nate Landman	3	3	0.0
Calais Campbell	4	2	1.0
Clark Phillips	4	1	0.0
Kaden Elliss	3	1	0.0
A.J. Terrell	2	1	0.0
Zach Harrison	2	1	1.0
Lorenzo Carter	1	2	0.0
Lacale London	1	1	0.0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	18/24	167	0	0	3	-3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	22	87	4.0	-6.4
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	4	31	7.8	1.1
Bryce Young	4	9	2.3	-1.4
Miles Sanders	6	2	0.3	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	4	7	43	30%	-3.8
Tommy Tremble	2	2	32	9%	1.5
Jonathan Mingo	4	5	32	22%	-0.6
D.J. Chark	1	2	18	9%	0.9
Chuba Hubbard	2	2	16	9%	1.1
Stephen Sullivan	1	1	14	4%	1.7
Miles Sanders	2	2	11	9%	0.4
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	2	2	1	9%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Frankie Luvu	3	7	0	0
Nick Thurman	1	3	0	0
Derrick Brown	1	3	0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	1	3	0	0
Jaycee Horn	3	1	0	0
Chris Wormley	1	2	0	0
Troy Hill	3	0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	1	2	0	0
Xavier Woods	2	1	1	1
Donte Jackson	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3
Closing total: 32
ATL moneyline: -155
CAR moneyline: +130

Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 32; the game landed 16 — under by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: ATL 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Chris Tabor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.