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2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta7
BY 2final margin
PanthersCarolina9
Atlanta Falcons 7 at Carolina Panthers 9. Final.
Falcons -3 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 15
Carolina Panthers 9, Falcons 7 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:01, 4th and 5, on Eddy Pineiro — 27.3 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 4th and 5
Eddy Pineiro
Panthers
(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
U 32 ✓
Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 9–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Panthers +27.3% win probability on one snap.
27.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bijan RobinsonPanthersQ3 1:33(1:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end to ATL 21 for 1 yard (13-T.Hill). FUMBLES (13-T.Hill), RECOVERED by CAR-0-B.Burns at ATL 24.
16.8pts
Xavier WoodsPanthersQ4 7:44(7:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods at CAR 3. 25-X.Woods to CAR 5 for 2 yards (5-D.London).
16.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Falcons at 2 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — -0.28 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.60 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Falcons143 of 153 plays carry both curves
(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Swing +27.3 for PanthersExpected points +0.05 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01CAR +27% win prob(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
3rd · 1:33ATL +17% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end to ATL 21 for 1 yard (13-T.Hill). FUMBLES (13-T.Hill), RECOVERED by CAR-0-B.Burns at ATL 24.
4th · 7:44ATL +16% win prob(7:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods at CAR 3. 25-X.Woods to CAR 5 for 2 yards (5-D.London).
4th · 1:47CAR +16% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ATL 2 for 6 yards (37-D.Hellams; 3-J.Bates).
4th · 3:19CAR +14% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-D.Chark ran ob at ATL 25 for 18 yards.
2nd · 6:06CAR +10% win prob(6:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at CAR 7 for 56 yards (24-V.Bell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddy Pineiro's 23-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd0:26Eddy Pineiro·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+37–3
4th13:35Eddy Pineiro·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+37–6
4th0:01Eddy Pineiro·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+37–9
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPanthers
Falcons3–6Panthers
205Total yards286
4.1Yards per play4.8
36%Success rate37%
46%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays7
11First downs15
0Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Panthers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Falcons: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.20Panthers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Falcons: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.10Panthers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.60Falcons: −0.60 expected points added per play
−0.28Panthers: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 50 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Panthers’s 60 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Panthers 3.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's play-action rate, 61.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 11.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 45.8% in week 12.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, −19.7 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 14.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 80.0% in week 14 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.1 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.2% in week 14 against 4.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Panthers4.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteATL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 61.9%, 34.2 points above their season mean of 27.7% and 2.7 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%52 snaps
68Kyle HintonG · Every snap100%52 snaps
77Storm NortonT · Every snap100%52 snaps
64Ryan NeuzilC · Every snap100%52 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%52 snaps
9Desmond RidderQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time85%44 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation65%34 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation58%30 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Heavy rotation50%26 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational44%23 snaps
43Tucker FiskTE · Rotational38%20 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational37%19 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational33%17 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Rotational27%14 snaps
15Van JeffersonWR · Rotational25%13 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Situational19%10 snaps
16Scott MillerWR · Situational19%10 snaps
Inactive · 7
David OnyemataDTChris LindstromGBud DupreeOLBLogan WoodsideQBKaleb McGaryTJohn FitzPatrickTEMack HollinsWR
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Eddy Pineiro+26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 0:01 · Panthers · 4th & goal at ATL 5 · gained nothing · +0.05 EP · +25.9% win probability
141 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 153 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 90 yards from the CAR 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
153 of 153 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
153
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
35%
Yards
487
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1749%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16-0.2613%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.4150%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.5750%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.1586%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6-0.3317%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Panthers 33
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Falcons 33
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Panthers 43
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 4 to the Falcons 18
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 24
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 36
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 42 to the Panthers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 17
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Falcons6Panthers0
Falcons7Panthers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Panthers 2
Falcons7Panthers3
Field goal16 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Falcons 36
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Panthers 43
Punt12 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Falcons 37
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Falcons 21
4th quarter40 plays
Falcons7Panthers6
Field goal4 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 4
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.5 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Panthers 18
Falcons7Panthers9
Field goal22 plays, from the Panthers 5 to the Falcons 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -3
Closing total
32
Falcons moneyline
-155
Panthers moneyline
+130
Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 32; the game landed 16 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 47°F at kickoff; breezy at 15 mph out of the north-east; 0.97 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Chris Tabor
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 4:29
CAR +9% win prob
(4:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Chark. PENALTY on ATL-24-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
1st · 6:47ATL +9% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ATL 33 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).
