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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore23
BY 16final margin
JaguarsJacksonville7
Baltimore Ravens 23 at Jacksonville Jaguars 7. Final.
Ravens -4 ✓U 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 15
Baltimore Ravens 23, Jaguars 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 7:26, 2nd and 6, on Jamal Agnew — 14.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:26 · 2nd and 6
Jamal Agnew
Jaguars
(7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 16.
Baltimore Ravens 23–7. Biggest swing: Q3 7:26, Jaguars +14.7% win probability on one snap.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon McManusRavensQ1 3:07(3:07) 10-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
7.9pts
Trevor LawrenceRavensQ2 5:53(5:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end to BAL 20 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 18, RECOVERED by BAL-10-A.Maulet at BAL 19. 10-A.Maulet pushed ob at BAL 40 for 21 yards (1-T.Etienne).
10.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 6 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 13 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Ravens161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.7 for JaguarsExpected points +5.41 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 9 points higher than the market did.play 97
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:26JAX +15% win prob(7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:53BAL +10% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end to BAL 20 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 18, RECOVERED by BAL-10-A.Maulet at BAL 19. 10-A.Maulet pushed ob at BAL 40 for 21 yards (1-T.Etienne).
1st · 3:07BAL +8% win prob(3:07) 10-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
2nd · 9:39JAX +8% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at BAL 31 for 13 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
2nd · 0:11BAL +7% win prob(:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington to BAL 4 for 1 yard (32-M.Williams).
3rd · 2:30BAL +7% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left [92-J.Madubuike]. PENALTY on JAX-16-T.Lawrence, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at JAX 12.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 43-yard field goal with 6:26 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:26Justin Tucker·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.OttLead never changed again+33–0
4th8:03Justin Tucker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.Ott+320–7
4th6:05Justin Tucker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.Ott+323–7
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryJaguars
Ravens8–1Jaguars
396Total yards333
5.7Yards per play5.5
54%Success rate36%
42%Third-down rate23%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
10Explosive plays6
23First downs15
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Ravens: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.23Jaguars: −0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Ravens: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.24Jaguars: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Ravens: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.18Jaguars: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 69 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 61 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Jaguars 4.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
JAX's sack or hit rate, 29.0%, is past their previous high of 23.3% in week 10 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.7-swing turn from week 14.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 15.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.9 points.
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.7% in week 14 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 74.1% in week 14 against 41.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Jaguars29.0%
off script — got home · +13.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+2.13× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 13.1 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 2.1 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%70 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%70 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time84%59 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Heavy rotation69%48 snaps
3Odell BeckhamWR · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Heavy rotation51%36 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Rotational49%34 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational40%28 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational40%28 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Rotational36%25 snaps
34Keaton MitchellRB · Rotational36%25 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Rotational31%22 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational26%18 snaps
66Ben ClevelandG · Situational9%6 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Sam MustipherCRock Ya-SinCBDamarion WilliamsCBSala Aumavae-LauluGMalik CunninghamQBJosh JohnsonQB
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 30. 2-R.Jenkins to JAX 48 for 18 yards (76-J.Simpson).
Q2 11:47 · Ravens · 2nd & 4 at JAX 38 · gained nothing · -5.80 EP · −16.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 88 yards from the JAX 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
43%
Yards
729
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2880%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR30+0.0823%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.3057%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0155%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 44
Ravens3Jaguars0
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Jaguars 13
No good8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Ravens 32
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Ravens 43
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 43
2nd quarter46 plays
No good6 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 36
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Jaguars 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Ravens 16
Ravens9Jaguars0
Ravens10Jaguars0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Jaguars 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Ravens 5
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jaguars 49
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Ravens10Jaguars6
Ravens10Jaguars7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 35
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jaguars 38
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Jaguars 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Jaguars 4
4th quarter53 plays
Ravens16Jaguars7
Ravens17Jaguars7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 33
Ravens20Jaguars7
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Jaguars 4
Fumble lost4 plays
Ravens23Jaguars7
Field goal4 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 16
The period ended15 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Ravens 13
The period ended12 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Jaguars 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
