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2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

23

Jacksonville Jaguars

7

BAL -4 ✓U 42.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 23–7. Biggest swing: Q3 7:26, JAX +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑BAL ↓
Q3 · 7:26BAL 10 — JAX 6JAX ball · 2nd & 6BAL 88%

(7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 7:26JAX +15% win prob(7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 5:53BAL +10% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end to BAL 20 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 18, RECOVERED by BAL-10-A.Maulet at BAL 19. 10-A.Maulet pushed ob at BAL 40 for 21 yards (1-T.Etienne).
  3. Q1 · 3:07BAL +8% win prob(3:07) 10-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
  4. Q2 · 9:39JAX +8% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at BAL 31 for 13 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:26BAL Field goal

    (6:26) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 1:18BAL Touchdown

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — JAX 0
  3. Q3 · 7:26JAX Touchdown

    (7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — JAX 7
  4. Q4 · 15:00BAL Touchdown

    (15:00) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — JAX 7
  5. Q4 · 8:03BAL Field goal

    (8:03) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — JAX 7
  6. Q4 · 6:05BAL Field goal

    (6:05) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 23 — JAX 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensJaguars
Offensive plays6961
Total yards396 (edge)333
Yards per play5.7 (edge)5.5
Expected points added / play0.03 (edge)-0.23
Success rate54% (edge)36%
Dropback rate45%79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.18
Third downs5/12 (edge)3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)15
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

25/43, 264 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-12.1 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/24, 171 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

12 att, 97 yds, 0 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Keaton MitchellRB

9 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Isaiah LikelyTE

5/6 for 70 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Zay JonesWR

5/8 for 59 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 218232:48Punt
2BALBAL 1111765:51Field goal +3
3JAXJAX 258433:18Missed field goal
4BALBAL 404-122:04Punt
5JAXJAX 388262:58Missed field goal
6BALBAL 453171:24Interception
7JAXJAX 4810375:55Fumble
8BALBAL 4014854:30Touchdown +7
9JAXJAX 416521:12End of half
10BALBAL 2510224:46Punt
11JAXJAX 126882:59Touchdown +7
12BALBAL 259373:01Punt
13JAXJAX 10471:59Punt
14BALBAL 426582:17Touchdown +7
15JAXJAX 25581:26Punt
16BALBAL 2410635:32Field goal +3
17JAXJAX 254-60:24Fumble
18BALJAX 19431:35Field goal +3
19JAXJAX 3214552:42Turnover on downs
20BALBAL 138473:19End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 88 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson14/24171113-3.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson12978.105.4
Keaton Mitchell9738.103.7
Gus Edwards16583.61-2.4
Justice Hill5234.60-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah Likely5670126%8.1
Rashod Bateman3639026%0.4
Keaton Mitchell221509%0.3
Charlie Kolar111504%1.4
Odell Beckham1314013%0.3
Gus Edwards111104%0.7
Zay Flowers12709%-0.9
Justice Hill01004%-0.5
Nelson Agholor01004%-5.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith430.000
Kyle Hamilton610.001
Marcus Williams410.000
Marlon Humphrey400.001
Arthur Maulet400.000
Brandon Stephens310.000
Jadeveon Clowney120.000
Patrick Queen210.000
Michael Pierce110.000
Geno Stone110.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence25/43264101-12.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Trevor Lawrence44110.300.7
Travis Etienne10313.10-1.1
D'Ernest Johnson252.50-0.3
Tank Bigsby1-2-2.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jamal Agnew227015%4.7
Zay Jones5859019%1.2
Calvin Ridley51239029%-2.0
Travis Etienne4628014%0.6
Evan Engram4628014%-4.0
Luke Farrell112802%1.7
Parker Washington4612014%-6.9
Elijah Cooks01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun820.000
Devin Lloyd730.000
Andrew Wingard810.000
Rayshawn Jenkins421.011
Montaric Brown410.000
Josh Hines-Allen220.000
Travon Walker221.000
Darious Williams310.000
Davon Hamilton120.000
Daniel Thomas110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -4
Closing total
42.5
BAL moneyline
-225
JAX moneyline
+185

Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 30 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
58°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
BAL 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Doug Pederson