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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 15
It turned at Q3 7:26, 2nd and 6, on Jamal Agnew — 14.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 23–7. Biggest swing: Q3 7:26, Jaguars +14.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:26 · 2nd and 6
Jamal Agnew
Jaguars
(7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 6 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 13 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Justin Tucker's 43-yard field goal with 6:26 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Justin Tucker43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.OttLead never changed again+33–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryJaguars
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 69 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 61 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Jaguars 4.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's sack or hit rate, 29.0%, is past their previous high of 23.3% in week 10 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 15.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.9 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.7% in week 14 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 74.1% in week 14 against 41.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-3.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 69 snaps
Jaguars4.7 ptsright on their number · +1.8 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 88%
Tendencies room →Ravens41.1%leaned — ran early · −11.3 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 56 early downs
Jaguars71.1%leaned — passed early · +11.1 vs their 60.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 42%
Tendencies room →Ravens25.8%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Jaguars14.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33% to 90%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 16.7%.
Jaguars66.7%leaned — went for it · +35.2 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±22.9 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Ravens16.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Jaguars29.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Ravens8.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Jaguars29.0%off script — got home · +13.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+2.13× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
JAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 13.1 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 2.1 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
25/43, 264 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-12.1 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
14/24, 171 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.6 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jamal Agnew banked 11.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 18.5 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/24, 171 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 12 car, 97 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.0 | +7.7 | 74% | 90% | 26% | 20% | 5/6, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.0 | +11.9 | 16% | 17% | 5% | 7% | 2/2, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 14.7 | −3.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/43, 264 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 41 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 13.9 | −1.7 | 40% | 23% | 4% | 1% | 16 car, 58 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | −0.9 | 61% | 63% | 19% | 33% | 5/8, 59 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 10.8 | +3.5 | 36% | 42% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 73 yd · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | −2.3 | 69% | 67% | 14% | 0% | 10 car, 31 yd · 4/6, 28 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.9 | −10.7 | 92% | 90% | 29% | 37% | 5/12, 39 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.9 | −3.2 | 44% | 58% | 26% | 37% | 3/6, 39 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −2.3 | 84% | 88% | 14% | 9% | 4/6, 28 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −3.9 | 45% | 54% | 14% | 8% | 4/6, 12 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +2.0 | 34% | 25% | 2% | 5% | 1/1, 28 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.8 | 36% | 16% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −3.5 | 54% | 58% | 13% | 29% | 1/3, 14 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 2.3 | −1.3 | 26% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 5 car, 23 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.4 | 84% | 100% | 9% | 10% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.5 | −0.4 | 29% | 33% | 0% | — | 2 car, 5 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 40% | 45% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Elijah CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 23% | 25% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | -0.2 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 30. 2-R.Jenkins to JAX 48 for 18 yards (76-J.Simpson).
Q2 11:47 · Ravens · 2nd & 4 at JAX 38 · gained nothing · -5.80 EP · −16.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 88 yards from the JAX 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens3
Jaguars0How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Ravens9Jaguars0Ravens10Jaguars0How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens10Jaguars6Ravens10Jaguars7Ravens16Jaguars7Ravens17Jaguars7Ravens20Jaguars7Ravens23Jaguars7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/24 | 171 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12 | 97 | 8.1 | 0 | +5.4 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Gus Edwards |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 26% | +8.1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/43 | 264 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −12.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_15_BAL_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -4 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 30 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| 16 |
| 58 |
| 3.6 |
| 1 |
| −2.4 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.3 |
| +0.4 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Odell Beckham | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −0.9 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −5.8 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arthur Maulet | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Pierce | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Travis Etienne | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 | −1.1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 2 | 70 | 1 | 5% | +4.7 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 19% | +1.2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 12 | 39 | 0 | 29% | −2.0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 14% | +0.6 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 14% | −4.0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 2% | +1.7 |
| Parker Washington | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 14% | −6.9 |
| Elijah Cooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Montaric Brown | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
