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Cleveland Browns 20, Bears 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 14:01, 1st and 10, on Tremaine Edmunds — 26.9 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:01 · 1st and 10
Tremaine Edmunds
Bears
(14:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CLE 45. 49-T.Edmunds for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.5 mph wind
Browns closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Cleveland Browns 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:01, Bears +26.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
26.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Amari CooperBrownsQ4 3:18(3:18) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.7pts
David NjokuBrownsQ4 0:56(:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 85-D.Njoku pushed ob at CHI 19 for 34 yards (4-E.Jackson).
24.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — -0.31 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 34% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bears184 of 197 plays carry both curves
(14:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CLE 45. 49-T.Edmunds for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −26.9 for BrownsExpected points −9.44 for BrownsThe model had Bears 3 points higher than the market did.play 102
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:01CHI +27% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CLE 45. 49-T.Edmunds for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:18CLE +26% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:56CLE +25% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 85-D.Njoku pushed ob at CHI 19 for 34 yards (4-E.Jackson).
3rd · 2:39CLE +16% win prob(2:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to CHI 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CHI 20.
4th · 14:56CLE +13% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 3-M.Goodwin to CHI 15 for 57 yards (4-E.Jackson).
3rd · 2:31CHI +13% win prob(2:31) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson at CHI 1. 29-T.Stevenson to CHI 35 for 34 yards (88-H.Bryant, 64-G.Christian).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 34-yard field goal with 0:36 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd7:11Cairo Santos·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+317–7
4th12:31Dustin Hopkins·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+317–10
4th3:18Amari Cooper·51-yd TD catch51-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+717–17
4th0:36Dustin Hopkins·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryBrowns
Bears3–5Browns
236Total yards377
3.4Yards per play5.6
27%Success rate34%
22%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
11First downs14
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers3
The read
Browns ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — yards per play.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Bears: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.37Browns: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.31Bears: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.31Browns: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Bears: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.53Browns: −0.53 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 70 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Browns’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Bears 1, Browns 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 72.0%, is past their previous high of 64.7% in week 12 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Browns17.8%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.0%, 18.3 points above their season mean of 53.7% and 2.0 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%73 snaps
62Lucas PatrickC · Every snap100%73 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%73 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%73 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
2D.J. MooreWR · Full-time88%64 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time86%63 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time86%63 snaps
65Cody WhitehairG · Heavy rotation66%48 snaps
13Tyler ScottWR · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
23Roschon JohnsonRB · Rotational49%36 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational34%25 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Rotational34%25 snaps
21D'Onta ForemanRB · Rotational26%19 snaps
18Robert TonyanTE · Situational23%17 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Situational23%17 snaps
12Velus JonesWR · Situational14%10 snaps
35Khari BlasingameFB · Situational12%9 snaps
15Trent TaylorWR · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 5
Ja'Tyre CarterGNoah SewellILBNathan PetermanQBQuindell JohnsonSSEquanimeous St. BrownWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass+33% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:18) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:18 · Browns · 2nd & 4 at CLE 49 · gained 51 · +4.92 EP · +33.3% win probability
182 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 32 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 192. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 32 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 84 yards from the CLE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
29%
Yards
613
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2179%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2774%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.3245%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.5757%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.6757%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 47
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 21
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Bears 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 22
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Browns 42
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Browns 44
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 26
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 48
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 11
Bears6Browns0
Bears7Browns0
Touchdown9 plays
Bears7Browns6
Bears7Browns7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 31
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 45
Intercepted13 plays, from the Bears 2 to the Browns 37
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bears13Browns7
Touchdown1 play
Bears14Browns7
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 32
Bears17Browns7
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Browns 23
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Bears 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Browns 40
4th quarter58 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Bears17Browns10
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Bears 10
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 26
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Bears 47
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Bears17Browns16
Bears17Browns17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 49
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bears17Browns20
Field goal13 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Bears 15
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.5 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Browns 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -3
Closing total
38
Bears moneyline
+124
Browns moneyline
-148
Browns closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 38; the game landed 37 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 44°F at kickoff; windy at 20 mph out of the south; 0.11 in of precipitation; dense drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Bears 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteWind at 19.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 0:05CHI +13% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle INTERCEPTED by 37-Da.Bell (30-D.Harmon) at CLE -5. 37-Da.Bell to CLE 1 for 6 yards.
2nd · 13:26CHI +12% win prob(13:26) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson [93-Ju.Jones] at CLE 28. 4-E.Jackson to CLE 1 for 27 yards (68-M.Dunn).
