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2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Chicago Bears

17

Cleveland BrownsWinner

20

CLE -3 pushU 38 ✓15 mph wind

Cleveland Browns 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:01, CHI +27% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CLE ↑CHI ↓
Q3 · 14:01CHI 13 — CLE 7CLE ball · 1st & 10CLE 61%

(14:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CLE 45. 49-T.Edmunds for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 14:01CHI +27% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CLE 45. 49-T.Edmunds for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 3:18CLE +26% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 0:56CLE +25% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 85-D.Njoku pushed ob at CHI 19 for 34 yards (4-E.Jackson).
  4. Q3 · 2:39CLE +16% win prob(2:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to CHI 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CHI 20.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 11:04CHI Touchdown

    (11:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — CLE 0
  2. Q2 · 3:54CLE Touchdown

    (3:54) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — CLE 7
  3. Q3 · 14:01CHI Touchdown

    (14:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CLE 45. 49-T.Edmunds for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 14 — CLE 7
  4. Q3 · 7:11CHI Field goal

    (7:11) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — CLE 7
  5. Q4 · 12:31CLE Field goal

    (12:31) 7-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — CLE 10
  6. Q4 · 3:18CLE Touchdown

    (3:18) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — CLE 17
  7. Q4 · 0:36CLE Field goal

    (:36) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — CLE 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsBrowns
Offensive plays7067
Total yards236377 (edge)
Yards per play3.45.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.31 (edge)-0.37
Success rate27%34% (edge)
Dropback rate64%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.31-0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.31 (edge)-0.53
Third downs4/184/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1114 (edge)
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Joe FlaccoQB

28/44, 374 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-17.4 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

19/40, 166 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-15.5 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Roschon JohnsonRB

5 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

7 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

4/8 for 109 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

10/14 for 104 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · -4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 258142:52Punt
2CHICHI 16451:47Punt
3CLECLE 45481:32Punt
4CHICHI 17451:35Punt
5CLECLE 375152:26Punt
6CHICHI 197302:43Punt
7CLECLE 19421:26Punt
8CHICHI 404131:35Punt
9CLECLE 9220:47Interception
10CHICLE 1522:23Touchdown +7
11CLECLE 1614847:06Touchdown +7
12CHICHI 25561:30Punt
13CLECLE 285271:19Punt
14CHICHI 210610:59Interception
15CHICHI 255-40:59Punt
16CLECLE 40100:11Defensive touchdown
17CLECLE 25572:05Punt
18CHICHI 309474:38Field goal +3
19CLECLE 255-101:02Punt
20CHICHI 424-91:27Punt
21CLECLE 305132:07Punt
22CLECHI 20100:14Interception
23CHICHI 357322:21Turnover on downs
24CLECLE 336672:29Field goal +3
25CHICHI 25561:52Punt
26CLECLE 25401:56Punt
27CHICHI 337143:21Punt
28CLECLE 207802:10Touchdown +7
29CHICHI 255-21:18Punt
30CLECLE 218681:18Field goal +3
31CHICHI 256300:32Interception

6 of 31 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields19/40166123-15.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Roschon Johnson5367.20-0.2
Justin Fields7304.301.0
Velus Jones22311.502.6
Khalil Herbert681.30-2.4
Tyler Scott1-3-3.00-2.2
D'Onta Foreman6-6-1.00-5.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore4852023%-0.4
Tyler Scott3449011%1.8
Roschon Johnson4624017%-3.2
Cole Kmet5723120%1.8
Darnell Mooney2814023%-4.3
Khalil Herbert11403%-0.2
Robert Tonyan01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds440.011
T.J. Edwards150.502
Montez Sweat422.500
Kyler Gordon510.000
Tyrique Stevenson410.012
Justin Jones220.000
Jaquan Brisker310.001
Jaylon Johnson300.001
Terell Smith120.001
DeMarcus Walker120.500

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco28/44374234-17.4
Dorian Thompson-Robinson1/150002.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jerome Ford8202.50-3.5
Kareem Hunt781.10-4.2
Pierre Strong221.00-1.4
Joe Flacco1-1-1.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amari Cooper48109118%7.7
David Njoku1014104132%-4.1
Marquise Goodwin115702%4.0
Cedric Tillman4852018%-13.6
Elijah Moore231707%0.3
Kareem Hunt111202%0.5
Jerome Ford4511011%0.2
Pierre Strong22905%-1.3
Jordan Akins11802%0.6
Harrison Bryant01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Martin Emerson420.001
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah501.012
D'Anthony Bell410.011
Ronnie Hickman410.001
Dalvin Tomlinson320.000
Sione Takitaki310.000
Greg Newsome400.002
Alex Wright401.000
Myles Garrett210.000
Tony Fields200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CLE -3
Closing total
38
CHI moneyline
+124
CLE moneyline
-148

Browns closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 38; the game landed 37 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
45°F, wind 15 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
CHI 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.