For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 16, 2023 · Ford Field

Denver Broncos

17

Detroit LionsWinner

42

DET -5.5 ✓O 49 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 42–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:49, DEN +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑DEN ↓
Q1 · 11:49DEN 0 — DET 0DEN ball · 2nd & 10DET 56%

(11:49) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DET 29 for -9 yards (6-I.Melifonwu). FUMBLES (6-I.Melifonwu) [6-I.Melifonwu], RECOVERED by DET-96-I.Buggs at DET 30. 96-I.Buggs to DEN 37 for 33 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 11:49DEN +16% win prob(11:49) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DET 29 for -9 yards (6-I.Melifonwu). FUMBLES (6-I.Melifonwu) [6-I.Melifonwu], RECOVERED by DET-96-I.Buggs at DET 30. 96-I.Buggs to DEN 37 for 33 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
  2. Q1 · 12:58DET +9% win prob(12:58) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy to DET 31 for 40 yards (32-B.Branch).
  3. Q1 · 3:22DET +7% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at DEN 40 for 23 yards (30-K.Dorsey; 6-I.Melifonwu).
  4. Q1 · 7:58DEN +6% win prob(7:58) 26-J.Gibbs right end to DET 45 for 10 yards (29-J.McMillian). PENALTY on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 35 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 12:41DET Touchdown

    (12:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — DET 7
  2. Q2 · 8:20DET Touchdown

    (8:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — DET 14
  3. Q2 · 0:24DET Touchdown

    (:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — DET 21
  4. Q3 · 10:41DEN Touchdown

    (10:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 17-L.Humphrey for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [34-A.Anzalone]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — DET 21
  5. Q3 · 7:03DET Touchdown

    (7:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — DET 28
  6. Q3 · 0:46DEN Field goal

    (:46) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 10 — DET 28
  7. Q4 · 12:17DET Touchdown

    (12:17) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 10 — DET 35
  8. Q4 · 6:31DEN Touchdown

    (6:31) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 17 — DET 35
  9. Q4 · 2:26DET Touchdown

    (2:26) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 17 — DET 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosLions
Offensive plays6164
Total yards288448 (edge)
Yards per play4.77.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.130.33 (edge)
Success rate41%50% (edge)
Dropback rate57%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.42 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.21 (edge)
Third downs5/135/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)511 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1928 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers10 (edge)

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

24/34, 278 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

15.2 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

18/32, 223 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

11 att, 100 yds, 1 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

17 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

7/9 for 112 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

3/7 for 74 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 257252:02Punt
2DENDEN 294411:20Fumble
3DETDEN 374-22:05Punt
4DENDEN 20411:02Punt
5DETDET 277343:27Punt
6DENDEN 167353:26Punt
7DETDET 209804:07Touchdown +7
8DENDEN 255-121:33Punt
9DETDET 397612:43Touchdown +7
10DENDEN 219113:54Punt
11DETDET 1912814:02Touchdown +7
12DENDEN 25200:19End of half
13DENDEN 2512314:26Touchdown +7
14DETDET 2510753:33Touchdown +7
15DENDEN 2513746:18Field goal +3
16DETDET 258593:31Touchdown +7
17DENDEN 257191:13Punt
18DETDET 234-91:41Punt
19DENDEN 389622:50Touchdown +7
20DETDEN 4410444:07Touchdown +7
21DENDEN 215262:21End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 81 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson18/32223102-2.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Samaje Perine6376.201.5
Javonte Williams12272.30-7.0
Marvin Mims11111.000.7
Russell Wilson760.910.1
Jaleel McLaughlin221.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jerry Jeudy3774022%2.4
Courtland Sutton5671019%5.8
Adam Trautman132409%-0.9
Lucas Krull131809%0.4
Jaleel McLaughlin231609%1.3
Lil'Jordan Humphrey3416113%3.5
Samaje Perine111103%0.7
Marvin Mims02006%-2.3
Brandon Johnson01003%-1.0
Javonte Williams22-706%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fabian Moreau710.001
Josey Jewell420.000
Jonathan Harris320.000
Justin Simmons410.001
D.J. Jones311.000
Alex Singleton220.000
P.J. Locke210.001
Patrick Surtain210.000
Jonathon Cooper301.000
Ja'Quan McMillian210.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff24/3427850215.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs111009.115.0
David Montgomery17855.000.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown79112128%9.7
Sam LaPorta5656319%10.5
Jameson Williams4747022%1.2
Josh Reynolds234109%2.0
Kalif Raymond111203%0.7
Jahmyr Gibbs22816%1.5
Donovan Peoples-Jones11503%-0.3
David Montgomery23-309%-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone750.001
Ifeatu Melifonwu531.002
Jack Campbell140.000
John Cominsky140.000
Aidan Hutchinson310.001
Kerby Joseph310.000
Khalil Dorsey210.001
Josh Paschal211.000
Cameron Sutton210.001
Derrick Barnes200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -5.5
Closing total
49
DEN moneyline
+210
DET moneyline
-258

Lions closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 49; the game landed 59 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
DEN 6 days · DET 6 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Dan Campbell