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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 16, 2023 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 15
It turned at Q1 11:49, 2nd and 10, on Russell Wilson — 16.4 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:49 · 2nd and 10
Russell Wilson
Lions
(11:49) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DET 29 for -9 yards (6-I.Melifonwu). FUMBLES (6-I.Melifonwu) [6-I.Melifonwu], RECOVERED by DET-96-I.Buggs at DET 30. 96-I.Buggs to DEN 37 for 33 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
Detroit Lions 42–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:49, Lions +16.4% win probability on one snap.
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Broncos at 5 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 6 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Broncos at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(11:49) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DET 29 for -9 yards (6-I.Melifonwu). FUMBLES (6-I.Melifonwu) [6-I.Melifonwu], RECOVERED by DET-96-I.Buggs at DET 30. 96-I.Buggs to DEN 37 for 33 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Sam LaPorta's 19-yard touchdown catch with 12:41 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Sam LaPorta19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+70–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryLions
Lions ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 61 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Lions’s 64 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Lions 6.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's blitz rate sent, 60.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.9 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
DEN's blitz rate sent, 55.6%, is past their previous high of 44.8% in week 1 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
DET's play-action rate turned over: 5.1% in week 14 against 41.7% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 14 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-6.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 61 snaps
Lions3.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 79%
Tendencies room →Broncos56.5%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 46 early downs
Lions52.8%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Broncos20.0%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Lions41.7%leaned — faked the run · +17.0 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Broncos50.0%leaned — went for it · +28.4 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±19.1 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Lions—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 64%
Tendencies room →Broncos55.6%leaned — sent pressure · +23.7 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+1.87× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Lions60.0%off script — sent pressure · +24.6 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+2.40× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Broncos19.4%inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Lions22.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
DET's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 60.0%, 24.6 points above their season mean of 35.4% and 2.4 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
24/34, 278 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
15.2 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
18/32, 223 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-2.4 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
7/9 for 112 yds, 1 TD
28% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Sam LaPorta banked 13.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 31.1 | +8.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/34, 278 yd, 5 TD |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Featured Receiver | 28.6 | +13.1 | 95% | 97% | 19% | 16% | 5/6, 56 yd, 3 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 24.8 | +12.1 | 48% | 56% | 6% | 1% | 11 car, 100 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.2 | +6.2 | 92% | 94% | 28% | 25% | 7/9, 112 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | −4.9 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 18/32, 223 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 12.1 | +1.1 | 94% | 97% | 19% | 23% | 5/6, 71 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +3.6 | 58% | 60% | 13% | 5% | 3/4, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 10.4 | +0.3 | 63% | 63% | 22% | 26% | 3/7, 74 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.2 | −2.9 | 52% | 44% | 9% | 0% | 17 car, 85 yd · 2/3, -3 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Featured Receiver | 8.7 | −4.3 | 68% | 72% | 22% | 39% | 4/7, 47 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +1.0 | 58% | 53% | 9% | 13% | 2/3, 41 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 5.8 | +1.0 | 39% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 6 car, 37 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 4.0 | −7.8 | 48% | 40% | 6% | 0% | 12 car, 27 yd · 2/2, -7 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 3.8 | −1.9 | 13% | 14% | 9% | 0% | 2 car, 2 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −2.6 | 47% | 34% | 9% | 6% | 1/3, 24 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.1 | 45% | 60% | 9% | 20% | 1/3, 18 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.2 | 30% | 31% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 17% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −2.9 | 42% | 49% | 6% | 24% | 1 car, 11 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | — | 14% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:49) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DET 29 for -9 yards (6-I.Melifonwu). FUMBLES (6-I.Melifonwu) [6-I.Melifonwu], RECOVERED by DET-96-I.Buggs at DET 30. 96-I.Buggs to DEN 37 for 33 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
Q1 11:49 · Broncos · 2nd & 10 at DET 20 · lost 10 · -8.29 EP · −23.7% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 81 yards from the DET 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Broncos0
Lions6Broncos0Lions7Broncos0Lions13Broncos0Lions14Broncos0Lions20Broncos0Lions21Broncos6Lions21Broncos7Lions21Broncos7Lions27Broncos7Lions28Broncos10Lions28Broncos10Lions34Broncos10Lions35Broncos16Lions35Broncos17Lions35Broncos17Lions41Broncos17Lions42Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/32 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 | −7.0 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 22% | +2.4 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 | 19% | +5.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Moreau | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/34 | 278 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +15.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_15_DEN_DET
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 49; the game landed 59 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 9% | −0.9 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +1.3 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 13% | +3.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Marvin Mims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| Brandon Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | -7 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Surtain | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
| 100 |
| 9.1 |
| 1 |
| +5.0 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 85 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 9 | 112 | 1 | 28% | +9.7 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 6 | 56 | 3 | 19% | +10.5 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 22% | +1.2 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 9% | +2.0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 9% | −3.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Anzalone | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jack Campbell | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Cominsky | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Dorsey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Paschal | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
