2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Nissan Stadium
Houston TexansWinner
19
Tennessee Titans
16
Houston Texans 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:49, TEN +61% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:49) 13-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
Highest-leverage plays
- OT · 1:49TEN +61% win prob(1:49) 13-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
- OT · 0:02TEN +44% win prob(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
- OT · 4:24TEN +43% win prob(4:24) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to TEN 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to HOU 46 for 7 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on TEN-47-J.Domann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 47.
- OT · 1:43TEN +29% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum pass deep right to 26-D.Singletary pushed ob at TEN 39 for 41 yards (33-E.Garror).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:12TEN Touchdown
(7:12) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-25-D.King, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: HOU 0 — TEN 6 - Q2 · 14:05TEN Touchdown
(14:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum pass short left intended for 33-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden at HOU 44. 24-E.Molden for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — TEN 13 - Q2 · 0:03HOU Field goal
(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — TEN 13 - Q3 · 6:30HOU Field goal
(6:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — TEN 13 - Q3 · 2:47HOU Field goal
(2:47) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 9 — TEN 13 - Q4 · 7:33TEN Field goal
(7:33) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: HOU 9 — TEN 16 - Q4 · 3:08HOU Touchdown
(3:08) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum pass short middle to 85-N.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 16 — TEN 16 - OT · 0:02HOU Field goal
(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 19 — TEN 16
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 72 | 63 |
| Total yards | 340 (edge) | 204 |
| Yards per play | 4.7 (edge) | 3.2 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.11 (edge) | -0.18 |
| Success rate | 44% (edge) | 27% |
| Dropback rate | 56% | 57% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.07 (edge) | -0.11 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.16 (edge) | -0.28 |
| Third downs | 4/15 | 5/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 4 (edge) | 7 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · HOU
23/36, 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.5 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
17/26, 199 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.7 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 8 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 17 | 12 | 83 | 5:46 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 28 | 7 | 17 | 2:30 | Punt | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 15 | 7 | 32 | 3:21 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 20 | 6 | 25 | 2:22 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 13 | 8 | 37 | 3:50 | Punt | |
| 7 | TEN | TEN 6 | 7 | 9 | 4:28 | Punt | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 43 | 13 | 66 | 5:38 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 25 | 6 | 15 | 2:43 | Interception | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 40 | 10 | 56 | 5:50 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | -17 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 12 | HOU | TEN 46 | 4 | 6 | 1:55 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | TEN | TEN 24 | 7 | 26 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 3 | 5 | 9 | 2:47 | Punt | |
| 15 | TEN | HOU 46 | 8 | 19 | 4:45 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 21 | 12 | 59 | 4:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | TEN | TEN 25 | 8 | 18 | 1:18 | Punt | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 21 | 5 | 19 | 1:00 | Punt | |
| 19 | TEN | TEN 29 | 4 | 1 | 0:30 | Punt | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 30 | 3 | 5 | 0:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | TEN | TEN 25 | 8 | 13 | 3:33 | Punt | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 27 | 4 | -21 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 23 | TEN | TEN 37 | 6 | 5 | 2:32 | Punt | |
| 24 | HOU | HOU 20 | 5 | 54 | 1:43 | Field goal +3 |
7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 83 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Houston Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 23/36 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2.5 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 8 | 11 | 82 | 1 | 32% | 8.1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 15% | 5.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 15% | 0.7 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 15% | 0.3 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | 1.4 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | -0.7 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -7.1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -2.4 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.7 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 3% | -1.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond King | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Derek Barnett | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Davis | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 17/26 | 199 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -5.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 | 2.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 9 | 0.6 | 0 | -6.4 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 | 12% | 4.1 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 15% | 3.9 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 12% | 4.1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 8% | 2.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 35% | -6.7 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | -0.7 |
| Derrick Henry | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15% | -2.9 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Weaver | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denico Autry | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Davidson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Avery | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Garror | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- TEN -3
- Closing total
- 38
- HOU moneyline
- +142
- TEN moneyline
- -170
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 35 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 48°F, wind 9 mph
- Referee
- Clete Blakeman
- Rest
- HOU 7 days · TEN 6 days
- Coaches
- DeMeco Ryans vs Mike Vrabel
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.