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Houston Texans 19, Titans 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 1:49, 4th and 15 — 61.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 1:49 · 4th and 15
Unnamed on the sheet
Titans
(1:49) 13-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:49, Titans +61.5% win probability on one snap.
61.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetTexansOT 4:24(4:24) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to TEN 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to HOU 46 for 7 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on TEN-47-J.Domann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 47.
43.4pts
Ka'imi FairbairnTexansOT 0:02(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
43.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 15 on third down, against Texans at 4 of 15 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Texans175 of 189 plays carry both curves
(1:49) 13-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
Swing +61.5 for TitansExpected points −0.33 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:49TEN +61% win prob(1:49) 13-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
Overtime · 0:02TEN +44% win prob(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Overtime · 4:24TEN +43% win prob(4:24) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to TEN 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to HOU 46 for 7 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on TEN-47-J.Domann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 47.
Overtime · 1:43TEN +29% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum pass deep right to 26-D.Singletary pushed ob at TEN 39 for 41 yards (33-E.Garror).
Overtime · 6:34TEN +28% win prob(6:34) 13-T.Zentner punts 35 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
Overtime · 8:32TEN +24% win prob(8:32) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep left to 11-C.Moore pushed ob at TEN 48 for 23 yards (5-J.Pitre; 25-D.King).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 54-yard field goal with 0:02 left in overtime put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:12Will Levis·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+60–6
2nd0:03Ka'imi Fairbairn·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+33–13
3rd6:30Ka'imi Fairbairn·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+36–13
3rd2:47Ka'imi Fairbairn·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+39–13
4th7:33Nick Folk·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Zentner · snap M.Cox+39–16
4th3:08Noah Brown·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+716–16
Overtime0:02Ka'imi Fairbairn·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+319–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryTitans
Texans6–1Titans
340Total yards204
4.7Yards per play3.2
44%Success rate27%
27%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
18First downs14
4Sacks taken7
1Turnovers1
The read
Texans ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Texans: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Texans: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.11Titans: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Texans: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.28Titans: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 72 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Titans’s 63 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Titans 2.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.8% in week 1.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
low through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, −13.7 pts, is past their previous low of −11.4 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +13.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Titans15.0%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.7 pts, 11.1 points below their season mean of -2.6 pts and 1.8 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
T.Zentner punts+61% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:49) 13-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
OT 1:49 · Titans · 4th & 15 at TEN 42 · gained nothing · -0.33 EP · +61.5% win probability
173 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 83 yards from the TEN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
35%
Yards
544
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1456%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.2659%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.0660%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0936%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0450%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Texans0Titans6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Texans 1
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 45
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 40
2nd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Texans0Titans12
Touchdown3 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 45
Texans0Titans13
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 38
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Titans 24
Texans3Titans13
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Titans 5
3rd quarter36 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
Texans6Titans13
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Titans 8
Punt5 plays
Texans9Titans13
Field goal6 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Titans 30
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 24 to midfield
4th quarter53 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 3 to the Texans 21
Texans9Titans16
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Texans 14
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Texans15Titans16
Texans16Titans16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Titans 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 43
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 45
Overtime27 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 48
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Titans 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
Texans19Titans16
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Titans 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
