2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Gillette Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

New England Patriots

KC -10 pushO 39.5 ✓Chiefs closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Kansas City Chiefs 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 7:09, KC +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:09KC 7 — NE 7KC ball · 1st & 10KC 78%

(7:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 81-B.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Mapu [90-C.Barmore] at KC 28. 30-M.Mapu pushed ob at KC 8 for 20 yards (83-N.Gray). KC-64-W.Morris was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:09KC +13% win prob(7:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 81-B.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Mapu [90-C.Barmore] at KC 28. 30-M.Mapu pushed ob at KC 8 for 20 yards (83-N.Gray). KC-64-W.Morris was injured during the play.
Q2 · 7:14NE +9% win prob(7:14) 4-B.Zappe pass deep right to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:22NE +9% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to NE 42 for 31 yards (31-J.Jones).
Q1 · 9:56KC +8% win prob(9:56) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:34KC Touchdown
(1:34) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-J.McKinnon. 1-J.McKinnon pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — NE 0
Q2 · 7:14NE Touchdown
(7:14) 4-B.Zappe pass deep right to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — NE 7
Q2 · 4:50NE Field goal
(4:50) 37-C.Ryland 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: KC 7 — NE 10
Q2 · 0:40KC Touchdown
(:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — NE 10
Q3 · 10:32KC Field goal
(10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 17 — NE 10
Q3 · 9:29KC Touchdown
(9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 24 — NE 10
Q3 · 3:45KC Field goal
(3:45) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 27 — NE 10
Q4 · 8:31NE Touchdown
(8:31) (Shotgun) 36-K.Harris up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — NE 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Patriots
Offensive plays	58	51
Total yards	331 (edge)	206
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	-0.02 (edge)	-0.32
Success rate	34%	35% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.20 (edge)
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/37, 305 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

2.1 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

23/31, 180 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-12.9 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

13 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Ezekiel ElliottRB

11 att, 25 yds, 0 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

9/9 for 91 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

7/9 for 66 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 13	5	2	1:36	Punt
2	KC	KC 38	5	47	3:33	Missed field goal
3	NE	NE 29	10	63	6:16	Missed field goal
4	KC	KC 31	5	69	2:05	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 25	5	9	1:30	Punt
6	KC	KC 27	4	-1	2:04	Punt
7	NE	NE 39	11	61	5:47	Touchdown +7
8	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:12	Interception
9	NE	KC 8	4	11	2:10	Field goal +3
10	KC	KC 25	13	80	4:12	Touchdown +7
11	NE	NE 25	2	3	0:35	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	12	59	4:31	Field goal +3
13	NE	NE 21	2	0	0:18	Interception
14	KC	NE 7	3	7	0:49	Touchdown +7
15	NE	NE 35	7	2	2:49	Punt
16	KC	KC 26	6	39	2:53	Field goal +3
17	NE	NE 25	5	3	2:06	Punt
18	KC	KC 26	4	1	0:58	Punt
19	NE	NE 35	4	7	0:53	Punt
20	KC	KC 15	6	10	3:21	Punt
21	NE	NE 27	4	6	2:02	Punt
22	KC	KC 24	1	0	0:12	Interception
23	NE	KC 29	3	29	0:44	Touchdown +7
24	KC	KC 25	10	18	4:24	Punt
25	NE	NE 1	4	6	1:25	Turnover on downs
26	KC	NE 6	4	2	2:00	Turnover on downs
27	NE	NE 9	1	4	0:35	End of game

8 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	27/37	305	2	2	3	2.1
Jerick McKinnon	1/1	4	1	0	0	1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13	37	2.8	-3.3
Jerick McKinnon	4	11	2.8	-1.1
Patrick Mahomes	3	-5	-1.7	-5.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashee Rice	9	9	91	1	26%	10.0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	4	4	64	1	11%	6.0
Noah Gray	2	2	37	0	6%	2.3
Justin Watson	1	3	31	0	9%	1.8
Travis Kelce	5	7	28	0	20%	-0.7
Jerick McKinnon	3	3	19	1	9%	1.7
Richie James	1	1	17	0	3%	1.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	1	17	0	3%	1.2
Kadarius Toney	2	4	5	0	11%	-6.1
Blake Bell	0	1	0	0	3%	-6.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
L'Jarius Sneed	7	1	0.0	0	2
Leo Chenal	1	5	0.0	0	1
Mike Edwards	1	5	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	5	1	0.0	0	0
Michael Danna	1	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Bolton	2	1	0.0	0	0
Drue Tranquill	1	1	1.0	0	0
Charles Omenihu	1	1	1.0	0	0
Chris Jones	2	0	0.0	0	1
Willie Gay	2	0	0.0	1	1

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	23/31	180	1	1	4	-12.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	11	25	2.3	0	-4.6
Kevin Harris	4	25	6.3	1	1.5
Bailey Zappe	1	2	2.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	7	9	66	1	29%	1.4
DeVante Parker	5	5	44	0	16%	2.0
Demario Douglas	3	5	33	0	16%	-0.9
Ezekiel Elliott	5	6	21	0	19%	-2.0
Mike Gesicki	1	2	7	0	6%	-2.1
Tyquan Thornton	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.5
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Jalen Reagor	0	2	0	0	6%	-5.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Dugger	5	2	0.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	5	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Barmore	4	2	1.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	3	1	0.0	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	4	0	0.0	0	0
Mack Wilson	2	1	1.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	1	0.0	1	1
Jeremiah Pharms	1	2	0.0	0	0
Alex Austin	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen Mills	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -10
Closing total: 39.5
KC moneyline: -485
NE moneyline: +370

Chiefs closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: KC 7 days · NE 10 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Bill Belichick