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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 15
It turned at Q2 7:09, 1st and 10, on Marte Mapu — 12.7 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:09 · 1st and 10
Marte Mapu
Patriots
(7:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 81-B.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Mapu [90-C.Barmore] at KC 28. 30-M.Mapu pushed ob at KC 8 for 20 yards (83-N.Gray). KC-64-W.Morris was injured during the play.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 7:09, Patriots +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Patriots at 2 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Patriots at 2 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(7:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 81-B.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Mapu [90-C.Barmore] at KC 28. 30-M.Mapu pushed ob at KC 8 for 20 yards (83-N.Gray). KC-64-W.Morris was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jerick McKinnon's 8-yard touchdown catch with 0:40 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jerick McKinnon8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+714–10
Harrison Butker29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–10Harrison Butker54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+327–108 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryPatriots
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 58 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Patriots’s 51 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Patriots 3.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's blitz rate sent, 9.8%, is past their previous low of 21.4% in week 10 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
KC's pass rate over expected, +13.3 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 5.6 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs13.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.6 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 58 snaps
Patriots-0.3 ptsright on their number · +3.1 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 84%
Tendencies room →Chiefs65.2%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 46 early downs
Patriots62.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 35%
Tendencies room →Chiefs14.6%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Patriots11.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.4%.
Patriots40.0%right on their number · +8.8 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 64%
Tendencies room →Chiefs25.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.4 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Patriots9.8%off script — sat back · −23.2 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−2.42× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 36%
Tendencies room →Chiefs17.1%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Patriots9.8%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.8%, 23.2 points below their season mean of 33.0% and 2.4 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
27/37, 305 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
2.1 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
Passing · NE
23/31, 180 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-12.9 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Rashee Rice banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee RiceWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.1 | +8.2 | 92% | 93% | 26% | 15% | 9/9, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.1 | +4.5 | 62% | 51% | 11% | 0% | 13 car, 37 yd · 4/4, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Alpha Receiver | 19.6 | +5.4 | 72% | 83% | 29% | 49% | 7/9, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 16.2 | +7.2 | 34% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 11 yd · 3/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | −1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/37, 305 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, -5 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.6 | −6.9 | 87% | 91% | 19% | 0% | 11 car, 25 yd · 5/6, 21 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +2.0 | 91% | 89% | 16% | 22% | 5/5, 44 yd |
| Bailey ZappeQB · Starter QB | 9.4 | +0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/31, 180 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Kevin HarrisRB | 8.5 | +6.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | −6.4 | 77% | 93% | 20% | 12% | 5/7, 28 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −0.2 | 72% | 71% | 16% | 33% | 3/5, 33 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +2.6 | 51% | 34% | 6% | 10% | 2/2, 37 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −1.4 | 68% | 61% | 9% | 39% | 1/3, 31 yd |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.7 | 34% | 41% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −4.2 | 40% | 51% | 11% | 6% | 2/4, 5 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.0 | 40% | 34% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 58% | 51% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 15% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 55% | 51% | 6% | 0% | 0/2, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 81-B.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Mapu [90-C.Barmore] at KC 28. 30-M.Mapu pushed ob at KC 8 for 20 yards (83-N.Gray). KC-64-W.Morris was injured during the play.
Q2 7:09 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at KC 25 · gained nothing · -6.39 EP · −18.0% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Chiefs6
Patriots0Chiefs7Patriots0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs7Patriots6Chiefs7Patriots7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Chiefs7Patriots10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs13Patriots10Chiefs14Patriots10Chiefs17Patriots10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Chiefs23Patriots10Chiefs24Patriots10Chiefs27Patriots10Chiefs27Patriots16Chiefs27Patriots17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/37 | 305 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +2.1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1/1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 9 | 9 | 91 | 1 | 26% | +10.0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 11% | +6.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L'Jarius Sneed | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Leo Chenal | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Edwards | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 23/31 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_15_KC_NE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| -5 |
| -1.7 |
| 0 |
| −5.1 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +1.8 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 20% | −0.7 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Richie James | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 11% | −6.1 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −6.4 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Omenihu | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Willie Gay | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 |
| 25 |
| 2.3 |
| 0 |
| −4.6 |
| Kevin Harris | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Bailey Zappe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 29% | +1.4 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 16% | +2.0 |
| Demario Douglas | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 16% | −0.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 19% | −2.0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −2.1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −5.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Pharms | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Austin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
