For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
(6:12) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at LAC 40 for -8 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], RECOVERED by LV-9-T.Wilson at LAC 42.
Swing +9.6 for RaidersExpected points +5.58 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:12LAC +10% win prob(6:12) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at LAC 40 for -8 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], RECOVERED by LV-9-T.Wilson at LAC 42.
1st · 8:55LV +6% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to LAC 1 for 13 yards (6-E.Kendricks).
1st · 13:47LAC +6% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass incomplete short left to 7-G.Everett (1-M.Epps, 95-J.Jenkins).
1st · 4:41LAC +5% win prob(4:41) 25-J.Kelley left tackle to LAC 29 for 4 yards (1-M.Epps; 69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (1-M.Epps), RECOVERED by LV-90-J.Tillery at LAC 31.
1st · 9:49LV +5% win prob(9:49) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 17-D.Adams to LAC 14 for 24 yards (32-A.Gilman, 3-D.James).
1st · 11:28LV +4% win prob(11:28) (Shotgun) 22-A.Abdullah right tackle to LAC 42 for 5 yards (6-E.Kendricks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zamir White's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 8:13 left in the 1st put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:13Zamir White·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Raiders ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.37Chargers: −0.37 expected points added per play
+0.25Raiders: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Chargers: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.33Raiders: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.56Chargers: −0.56 expected points added per play
+0.14Raiders: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 63 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Raiders’s 63 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Raiders 7.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, −14.1 pts, is past their previous low of −8.4 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
LV's pass rate over expected, +7.7 pts, is past their previous high of +5.5 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Raiders16.7%
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.1 pts, 14.8 points below their season mean of 0.7 pts and 1.9 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Stick sacked−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:12) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at LAC 40 for -8 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], RECOVERED by LV-9-T.Wilson at LAC 42.
Q1 6:12 · Chargers · 2nd & 10 at LAC 48 · lost 6 · -5.58 EP · −9.9% win probability
169 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 79 yards from the LAC 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
704
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.3958%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.3364%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.3147%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.0438%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 36
Chargers0Raiders6
Chargers0Raiders7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Chargers 1
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 48
Chargers0Raiders13
Chargers0Raiders14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 30
Fumble lost2 plays
Chargers0Raiders20
Chargers0Raiders21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 22
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Chargers 43
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Raiders 26
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 36
Chargers0Raiders27
Chargers0Raiders28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 11
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
Chargers0Raiders34
Chargers0Raiders35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Chargers 24
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 49
Chargers0Raiders41
Chargers0Raiders42
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Chargers 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Chargers0Raiders48
Chargers0Raiders49
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 3
Chargers6Raiders49
Chargers7Raiders49
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 18
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Raiders 39
Chargers7Raiders55
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Raiders 46
Chargers7Raiders56
4th quarter43 plays
Chargers7Raiders62
Touchdown3 plays
Chargers7Raiders63
Chargers13Raiders63
Chargers14Raiders63
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 13
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 32
Chargers20Raiders63
Chargers21Raiders63
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Raiders 6
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -3
Closing total
36
Chargers moneyline
+136
Raiders moneyline
-162
Raiders closed -3 and covered, winning by 42.
Total closed 36; the game landed 84 — over by 48.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Chargers 4 days · Raiders 4 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Antonio Pierce
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 4:47
LV +3% win prob
(4:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 5:25LV +3% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to LAC 30 for 10 yards (6-E.Kendricks, 37-J.Hawkins).
