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5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Vikings170 of 184 plays carry both curves
(5:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd to MIN 13 for 44 yards (24-C.Bynum).
Swing +44.6 for BengalsExpected points +3.83 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:31CIN +45% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd to MIN 13 for 44 yards (24-C.Bynum).
Overtime · 8:31CIN +22% win prob(8:31) 10-B.Robbins punts 56 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 4-B.Powell to MIN 37 for 10 yards (51-M.Bailey).
Overtime · 6:36MIN +17% win prob(6:36) 12-N.Mullens up the middle to CIN 42 for no gain (58-J.Ossai).
4th · 0:48CIN +16% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:49CIN +16% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:19CIN +15% win prob(11:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase to MIN 19 for 24 yards (40-I.Pace). CIN-1-J.Chase was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:31
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 29-yard field goal with 3:15 left in overtime put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:45Evan McPherson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+30–3
Overtime3:15Evan McPherson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.AdomitisLead never changed again+324–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryBengals
Vikings4–4Bengals
424Total yards381
6.3Yards per play5.7
49%Success rate51%
42%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays6
24First downs22
3Sacks taken5
2Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Vikings: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.15Bengals: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Vikings: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.17Bengals: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Vikings: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 67 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bengals’s 67 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Bengals 5.
NoteVikings outgained Bengals 424-381 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
MIN's play-action rate, 46.2%, is past their previous high of 36.4% in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 14.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
CIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.8% in week 14 against 25.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
CIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 14 against 71.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
CIN's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 14 against 17.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bengals25.6%
leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteMIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 46.2%, 16.6 points above their season mean of 29.6% and 2.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%68 snaps
76David QuessenberryG · Every snap100%68 snaps
67Ed IngramG · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Every snap100%68 snaps
12Nick MullensQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time96%65 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Full-time91%62 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Full-time87%59 snaps
32Ty ChandlerRB · Full-time81%55 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational16%11 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Situational10%7 snaps
26Kene NwangwuRB · Situational10%7 snaps
4Brandon PowellWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Lewis CineFSChris ReedGJoshua DobbsQBAlexander MattisonRBBrian O'NeillTNick MuseTEJalen NailorWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Browning pass+45% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd to MIN 13 for 44 yards (24-C.Bynum).
OT 5:31 · Bengals · 3rd & 9 at CIN 43 · gained 44 · +3.83 EP · +44.6% win probability
168 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 92 yards from the MIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
802
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2573%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0076%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.2227%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3360%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR5+0.26100%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Vikings0Bengals3
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Vikings 12
Vikings6Bengals3
Vikings7Bengals3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bengals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 22
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Vikings 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted15 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Bengals 14
The period ended9 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Bengals 16
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Vikings13Bengals3
Vikings14Bengals3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Bengals 37
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 40
Vikings17Bengals3
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Bengals 18
The period ended9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Vikings 29
4th quarter52 plays
Vikings17Bengals9
Vikings17Bengals10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxNine defenders
Vikings17Bengals16
Vikings17Bengals17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Vikings 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.7 seconds
Vikings23Bengals17
Vikings24Bengals17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bengals 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Vikings24Bengals23
Vikings24Bengals24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Vikings 21
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
The period ended2 plays
Overtime19 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Bengals 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
Vikings24Bengals27
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Vikings 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
