2023 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 16, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -3 pushO 41.5 ✓Bengals closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Cincinnati Bengals 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:31, CIN +45% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 5:31MIN 24 — CIN 24CIN ball · 3rd & 9MIN 56%

(5:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd to MIN 13 for 44 yards (24-C.Bynum).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 5:31CIN +45% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd to MIN 13 for 44 yards (24-C.Bynum).
OT · 8:31CIN +22% win prob(8:31) 10-B.Robbins punts 56 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 4-B.Powell to MIN 37 for 10 yards (51-M.Bailey).
OT · 6:36MIN +17% win prob(6:36) 12-N.Mullens up the middle to CIN 42 for no gain (58-J.Ossai).
Q4 · 0:48CIN +16% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:45CIN Field goal
(8:45) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: MIN 0 — CIN 3
Q1 · 2:27MIN Touchdown
(2:27) 32-T.Chandler right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — CIN 3
Q3 · 10:54MIN Touchdown
(10:54) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short middle to 3-J.Addison for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-C.Sample]. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 14 — CIN 3
Q3 · 4:36MIN Field goal
(4:36) 1-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 17 — CIN 3
Q4 · 15:00CIN Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 17 — CIN 10
Q4 · 7:49CIN Touchdown
(7:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 17 — CIN 17
Q4 · 3:57MIN Touchdown
(3:57) 12-N.Mullens pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard]. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 24 — CIN 17
Q4 · 0:48CIN Touchdown
(:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 24 — CIN 24
OT · 3:15CIN Field goal
(3:15) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: MIN 24 — CIN 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Bengals
Offensive plays	67	67
Total yards	424 (edge)	381
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.14	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	49%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28 (edge)	0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Vikings outgained Bengals 424–381 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

29/42, 324 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.3 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Nick MullensQB

26/33, 303 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

11.7 expected points added · +17.1% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Ty ChandlerRB

23 att, 132 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

10 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Jordan AddisonWR

6/6 for 111 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/10 for 84 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	12	59	6:19	Field goal +3
2	MIN	MIN 25	14	75	6:18	Touchdown +7
3	CIN	CIN 25	5	8	1:01	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 19	4	-6	1:34	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 39	6	15	3:04	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 16	14	75	7:38	Interception
7	CIN	CIN 17	7	13	2:29	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 34	5	44	1:12	Interception
9	CIN	CIN 30	3	6	0:25	End of half
10	MIN	MIN 8	10	92	4:14	Touchdown +7
11	CIN	CIN 25	5	15	1:38	Interception
12	MIN	MIN 43	8	41	4:36	Field goal +3
13	CIN	CIN 25	10	75	4:36	Touchdown +7
14	MIN	MIN 25	5	10	1:34	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 37	12	74	5:36	Touchdown +7
16	MIN	MIN 25	9	70	3:58	Touchdown +7
17	CIN	CIN 25	12	75	3:09	Touchdown +7
18	MIN	MIN 25	5	2	0:29	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 20	1	0	0:10	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 25	5	-8	1:40	Punt
21	MIN	MIN 37	5	21	2:08	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	CIN 42	6	49	3:01	Field goal +3

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 92 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	26/33	303	2	2	3	11.7
Justin Jefferson	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ty Chandler	23	132	5.7	1	3.3
Nick Mullens	6	10	1.7	0	-4.7
Kene Nwangwu	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jordan Addison	6	6	111	2	19%	10.8
Justin Jefferson	7	10	84	0	31%	1.5
T.J. Hockenson	6	7	63	0	22%	5.0
Ty Chandler	3	4	25	0	13%	1.0
Josh Oliver	2	2	14	0	6%	0.9
Johnny Mundt	1	1	3	0	3%	0.1
K.J. Osborn	1	2	3	0	6%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Camryn Bynum	8	1	0.0	0	0
Ivan Pace	7	2	0.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	5	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Metellus	5	0	1.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	3	2	1.0	0	2
Danielle Hunter	3	2	2.0	0	0
Troy Dye	2	2	0.0	0	0
Akayleb Evans	3	1	0.0	1	2
Harrison Smith	3	0	0.0	0	1
Patrick Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jake Browning	29/42	324	2	1	4	10.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	10	47	4.7	1	3.6
Chase Brown	7	23	3.3	0	-0.7
Trayveon Williams	1	10	10.0	0	-0.2
Jake Browning	4	0	0.0	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	4	4	64	0	10%	5.9
Tee Higgins	4	8	61	2	20%	4.1
Tyler Boyd	2	5	53	0	13%	3.4
Tanner Hudson	5	5	49	0	13%	3.7
Chase Brown	3	3	28	0	8%	2.6
Mitchell Wilcox	2	2	20	0	5%	1.5
Irv Smith	2	3	18	0	8%	-3.4
Joe Mixon	3	3	14	0	8%	0.3
Charlie Jones	2	3	10	0	8%	-1.1
Andrei Iosivas	1	2	5	0	5%	0.1
Trayveon Williams	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4
Drew Sample	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Battle	3	7	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	4	6	0.5	0	0
D.J. Turner	4	3	0.0	0	0
Dax Hill	4	2	0.0	0	1
Logan Wilson	3	3	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	4	0.0	1	1
Myles Murphy	2	2	1.0	0	0
Josh Tupou	1	3	0.0	0	0
Cam Sample	2	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	3	0	0.0	1	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3
Closing total: 41.5
MIN moneyline: +145
CIN moneyline: -175

Bengals closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 51 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: MIN 6 days · CIN 6 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Zac Taylor