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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 15
It turned at Q2 1:19, 4th and 2, on Saquon Barkley — 9.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:19, Giants +9.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:19 · 4th and 2
Saquon Barkley
Giants
(1:19) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NO 40 for 4 yards (99-K.Saunders).
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Giants at 2 of 15 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 25% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(1:19) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NO 40 for 4 yards (99-K.Saunders).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Keith Kirkwood's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:34 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Keith Kirkwood7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Derek CarrLead never changed again+73–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 60 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Saints’s 55 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Giants 0, Saints 3.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYG's play-action rate, 6.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 44.2% in week 14 against 70.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-0.9 ptsright on their number · +0.9 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 60 snaps
Saints-1.2 ptsright on their number · +1.4 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 90%
Tendencies room →Giants70.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.8 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 40 early downs
Saints50.0%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 53.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 46%
Tendencies room →Giants6.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.4 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Saints16.7%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 146%
Fourth Down room →Giants50.0%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 46.3%, and they swing ±39.0 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 91%
Tendencies room →Giants60.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.8 vs their 43.2%, and they swing ±18.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints23.9%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 27%
Tendencies room →Giants6.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints17.4%leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.5%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 19.9% and 1.3 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
23/28, 218 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
9.9 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
20/34, 177 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-14.6 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Juwan Johnson banked 5.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 20.3 | +4.9 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 23/28, 218 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, -4 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 16.0 | −1.7 | 52% | 47% | 18% | 1% | 16 car, 66 yd · 5/5, 44 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +5.9 | 44% | 57% | 7% | 19% | 2/2, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Tommy DeVitoQB · Starter QB | 10.7 | −0.4 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 20/34, 177 yd · 4 car, 36 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | −1.1 | 95% | 91% | 24% | 49% | 4/8, 63 yd |
| Jimmy GrahamTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +2.9 | 16% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 2/2, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | −0.3 | 42% | 47% | 18% | 15% | 4/6, 40 yd |
| Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +4.0 | 40% | 33% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −0.7 | 58% | 77% | 14% | 34% | 3/4, 36 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +1.6 | 85% | 89% | 12% | 2% | 4/4, 25 yd |
| Lynn BowdenWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −2.4 | 60% | 43% | 18% | 19% | 3/5, 31 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 5.7 | −1.4 | 50% | 40% | 6% | 6% | 9 car, 14 yd · 2/2, 23 yd |
| A.T. PerryWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.8 | 42% | 50% | 7% | 14% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −4.0 | 73% | 57% | 18% | 5% | 3/5, 13 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 4.1 | −1.2 | 39% | 34% | 9% | 3% | 3 car, 10 yd · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB | 3.6 | −1.9 | 47% | 53% | 4% | 1% | 8 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Eric GrayRB · Receiving Back | 3.6 | −1.7 | 18% | 23% | 12% | 0% | 3/4, 6 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.7 | 56% | 49% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Lawrence CagerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Taysom HillQB | 1.5 | −0.8 | 19% | — | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd · 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Tyrod TaylorQB | 0.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | — | 16% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.1 | 71% | 72% | 9% | 13% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 29% | 26% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short middle to 12-D.Waller to NO 49 for 29 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q2 8:30 · Giants · 3rd & 12 at NYG 22 · gained 29 · +3.52 EP · +8.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 68 yards from the NO 32 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants3
Saints0Giants3Saints6Giants3Saints7Giants6Saints7Giants6Saints13Giants6Saints14Giants6Saints17Giants6Saints23Giants6Saints24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 20/34 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 7 | −14.6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2/4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 | 24% | +2.7 |
| Darren Waller | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'Shawn Robinson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah McFadden |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 23/28 | 218 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +9.9 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_15_NYG_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 30 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| Matt Breida | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| −0.2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 12% | +3.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −1.5 |
| Lawrence Cager | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Eric Gray | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12% | −2.7 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −3.7 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 18% | +1.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 7% | +3.6 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 14% | +3.8 |
| A.T. Perry | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 7% | +4.2 |
| Lynn Bowden | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 18% | −0.3 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 18% | −2.5 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 7% | +1.9 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4% | +2.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 8 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
