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New York Giants 6 at New Orleans Saints 24. Final.
Saints -6 ✓U 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 15
New Orleans Saints 24, Giants 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:19, 4th and 2, on Saquon Barkley — 9.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:19 · 4th and 2
Saquon Barkley
Giants
(1:19) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NO 40 for 4 yards (99-K.Saunders).
Dome
Saints closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.
New Orleans Saints 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:19, Giants +9.4% win probability on one snap.
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Keith KirkwoodSaintsQ1 0:34(:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 18-K.Kirkwood for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.1pts
Juwan JohnsonSaintsQ3 8:44(8:44) 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Giants at 2 of 15 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 25% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.30 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Giants151 of 162 plays carry both curves
(1:19) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NO 40 for 4 yards (99-K.Saunders).
Swing −9.4 for SaintsExpected points −1.60 for SaintsThe model had Giants 7 points higher than the market did.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:19NO +9% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NO 40 for 4 yards (99-K.Saunders).
1st · 0:34NO +7% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 18-K.Kirkwood for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:44NO +6% win prob(8:44) 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:17NYG +6% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito sacked at NO 45 for -9 yards (90-B.Bresee).
2nd · 8:30NO +5% win prob(8:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short middle to 12-D.Waller to NO 49 for 29 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
2nd · 2:45NO +5% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short right to 82-D.Bellinger to NYG 33 for 5 yards (1-A.Taylor). PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 33.
3rd · 14:57
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Keith Kirkwood's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:34 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:06Randy Bullock·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–0
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Giants: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.09Saints: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Giants: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.31Saints: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Giants: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.18Saints: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 60 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Saints’s 55 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Giants 0, Saints 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's play-action rate, 6.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 11.6% in week 9.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 44.2% in week 14 against 70.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints17.4%
leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteNYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.5%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 19.9% and 1.3 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.DeVito pass+8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short middle to 12-D.Waller to NO 49 for 29 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q2 8:30 · Giants · 3rd & 12 at NYG 22 · gained 29 · +3.52 EP · +8.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 68 yards from the NO 32 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
33%
Yards
489
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.3478%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.1446%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3858%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3360%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.0840%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Giants3Saints0
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Saints 38
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 27
Punt4 plays
Giants3Saints6
Giants3Saints7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Giants 7
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Giants 46
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Saints 35
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 27
Giants6Saints7
Field goal17 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Saints 21
3rd quarter38 plays
Giants6Saints13
Giants6Saints14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Giants 23
Punt7 plays
Giants6Saints17
Field goal5 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Giants 32
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Giants 33
4th quarter42 plays
Giants6Saints23
Giants6Saints24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 1
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Saints 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Giants 40
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Giants 8 to the Saints 28
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
