2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium

New York Jets

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -7.5 ✓U 36 ✓15 mph windDolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 30.

Miami Dolphins 30–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:13, NYJ +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:13NYJ 0 — MIA 0NYJ ball · 1st & 10MIA 70%

(9:13) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 10 for -14 yards (sack split by 2-B.Chubb and 94-C.Wilkins). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at NYJ 4. 92-Z.Sieler to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (78-L.Tomlinson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:13NYJ +14% win prob(9:13) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 10 for -14 yards (sack split by 2-B.Chubb and 94-C.Wilkins). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at NYJ 4. 92-Z.Sieler to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (78-L.Tomlinson).
Q1 · 5:29NYJ +7% win prob(5:29) (Punt formation) 21-A.Davis up the middle to NYJ 41 for -1 yards (94-C.Wilkins, 98-R.Davis).
Q1 · 11:17MIA +4% win prob(11:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to NYJ 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.
Q2 · 7:51MIA +4% win prob(7:51) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:41MIA Touchdown
(7:41) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 7
Q2 · 14:00MIA Field goal
(14:00) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 10
Q2 · 7:51MIA Touchdown
(7:51) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 17
Q2 · 1:07MIA Touchdown
(1:07) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 24
Q3 · 8:39MIA Field goal
(8:39) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 27
Q4 · 11:46MIA Field goal
(11:46) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Dolphins
Offensive plays	55	55
Total yards	103	292 (edge)
Yards per play	1.9	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.57	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	20%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	78%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.54	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.66	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	3 (edge)
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.57.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/24, 224 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.2 expected points added · +13.5% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Trevor SiemianQB

14/26, 110 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-9.4 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

15 att, 42 yds, 2 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

9 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

8/9 for 142 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 13.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Durham SmytheTE

4/4 for 32 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	7	35	3:50	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 12	4	-8	2:05	Fumble
3	MIA	NYJ 1	4	1	1:28	Touchdown +7
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	16	2:14	Turnover on downs
5	MIA	NYJ 41	9	37	6:27	Field goal +3
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-6	2:27	Punt
7	MIA	NYJ 49	4	-1	2:10	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 9	4	-3	1:28	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 40	2	60	0:09	Touchdown +7
10	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	4	2:15	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 20	12	65	4:24	Touchdown +7
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	1	1:03	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	1	1:03	Punt
14	MIA	50	9	31	5:21	Field goal +3
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	42	4:11	Interception
16	MIA	MIA 41	12	52	7:43	Field goal +3
17	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	32	3:10	Fumble
18	MIA	NYJ 47	5	12	2:29	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 13	10	24	3:21	Interception
20	MIA	MIA 34	4	0	2:20	Punt
21	NYJ	NYJ 46	1	0	0:22	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 65 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	14/26	110	0	2	2	-9.4
Zach Wilson	4/11	26	0	0	4	-13.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Breece Hall	6	12	2.0	-2.8
Israel Abanikanda	4	8	2.0	-2.0
Dalvin Cook	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Ashtyn Davis	1	-1	-1.0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	3	4	29	12%	0.8
Xavier Gipson	2	6	29	18%	0.2
Allen Lazard	3	6	21	18%	-0.3
Tyler Conklin	4	7	18	21%	0.6
Jeremy Ruckert	2	2	16	6%	2.1
Israel Abanikanda	2	2	11	6%	0.2
Breece Hall	1	2	6	6%	-1.0
Dalvin Cook	1	1	6	3%	-0.1
Randall Cobb	0	3	0	9%	-8.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Whitehead	3	4	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	4	2	0.0	1
C.J. Mosley	3	3	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	2	3	0.0	1
Jermaine Johnson	3	2	0.0	0
Tony Adams	3	1	0.0	0
Ashtyn Davis	2	2	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	2	1	0.5	0
Jamien Sherwood	3	0	0.0	0
Michael Carter	3	0	0.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	21/24	224	1	0	3	9.2
Mike White	2/2	4	0	0	0	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	15	42	2.8	2	-0.7
Devon Achane	9	32	3.6	0	1.2
Jeffery Wilson	2	5	2.5	0	-1.9
Mike White	2	-2	-1.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	8	9	142	1	35%	13.7
Durham Smythe	4	4	32	0	15%	2.4
Devon Achane	3	3	30	0	12%	0.7
Braxton Berrios	1	1	12	0	4%	1.5
Chase Claypool	2	2	8	0	8%	-0.8
Cedrick Wilson	2	3	2	0	12%	-1.6
Raheem Mostert	2	2	1	0	8%	-1.6
Jeffery Wilson	1	2	1	0	8%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bradley Chubb	5	2	3.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	1	5	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	5	0	0.0	2	2
Eli Apple	4	0	0.0	0	1
Elijah Campbell	3	1	0.0	0	1
Andrew Van Ginkel	0	2	0.5	0	1
Nik Needham	2	0	0.0	0	0
Duke Riley	1	1	0.5	0	1
Zach Sieler	1	1	1.0	0	1
Christian Wilkins	0	1	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -7.5
Closing total: 36
NYJ moneyline: +275
MIA moneyline: -345

Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 30.

Total closed 36; the game landed 30 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NYJ 7 days · MIA 6 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.