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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 15
It turned at Q1 9:13, 1st and 10, on Zach Wilson — 13.8 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:13 · 1st and 10
Zach Wilson
Dolphins
(9:13) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 10 for -14 yards (sack split by 2-B.Chubb and 94-C.Wilkins). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at NYJ 4. 92-Z.Sieler to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (78-L.Tomlinson).
Miami Dolphins 30–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:13, Dolphins +13.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 4 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.57 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.66 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.54 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(9:13) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 10 for -14 yards (sack split by 2-B.Chubb and 94-C.Wilkins). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at NYJ 4. 92-Z.Sieler to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (78-L.Tomlinson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Raheem Mostert's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 7:41 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 55 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 55 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Jets 0, Dolphins 6.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.57.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's blitz rate sent, 3.4%, is past their previous low of 10.8% in week 9 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
NYJ's play-action rate turned over: 35.7% in week 14 against 16.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Jets5.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 55 snaps
Dolphins-8.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.5 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 97%
Tendencies room →Jets75.0%inside their normal wobble · +14.2 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 40 early downs
Dolphins38.5%leaned — ran early · −13.0 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 47%
Tendencies room →Jets16.3%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Dolphins17.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 134%
Fourth Down room →Jets—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.7%.
Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Jets3.4%off script — sat back · −12.7 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−2.06× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Dolphins23.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 40%
Tendencies room →Jets13.8%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Dolphins30.2%leaned — got home · +10.3 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 12.7 points below their season mean of 16.1% and 2.1 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
21/24, 224 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.2 expected points added · +13.5% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
14/26, 110 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-9.4 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jaylen Waddle banked 14.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.2 | +14.0 | 67% | 83% | 35% | 90% | 8/9, 142 yd, 1 TD |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 18.3 | −9.1 | 54% | 52% | 8% | 0% | 15 car, 42 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 1 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 13.0 | +5.7 | 87% | — | 0% | — | 21/24, 224 yd, 1 TD |
| Devon AchaneRB · Committee Back | 9.2 | +0.4 | 39% | 45% | 12% | 0% | 9 car, 32 yd · 3/3, 30 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +1.7 | 70% | 76% | 15% | 18% | 4/4, 32 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +0.8 | 95% | 98% | 12% | 12% | 3/4, 29 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −2.6 | 66% | 70% | 21% | 13% | 4/7, 18 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −1.7 | 90% | 91% | 18% | 25% | 3/6, 21 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Featured Receiver | 4.9 | −2.2 | 69% | 72% | 18% | 34% | 2/6, 29 yd |
| Israel AbanikandaRB | 3.9 | −0.3 | 38% | 40% | 6% | 0% | 4 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +1.2 | 38% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Breece HallRB | 2.8 | −1.9 | 40% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 6 car, 12 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.9 | 77% | 76% | 12% | 0% | 2/3, 2 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 39% | 59% | 4% | 14% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB | 2.0 | +0.3 | 17% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | 1.6 | −2.5 | 13% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/2, 1 yd |
| Tyler KroftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 36% | 28% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 38% | 38% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenny YeboahTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Mike WhiteQB | -0.0 | −0.3 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 2/2, 4 yd · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB | -1.0 | −2.3 | 38% | — | 0% | — | 4/11, 26 yd |
| Trevor SiemianQB · Starter QB | -1.6 | −6.6 | 62% | — | 0% | — | 14/26, 110 yd, 2 INT |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:13) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 10 for -14 yards (sack split by 2-B.Chubb and 94-C.Wilkins). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at NYJ 4. 92-Z.Sieler to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (78-L.Tomlinson).
Q1 9:13 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 24 · lost 20 · -7.13 EP · −19.8% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
Jets0
Dolphins6Jets0Dolphins7Jets0Dolphins10Jets0Dolphins16Jets0Dolphins17Jets0Dolphins23Jets0Dolphins24Jets0Dolphins27Jets0Dolphins30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 14/26 | 110 | 0 | 2 | 2 | −9.4 |
| Zach Wilson | 4/11 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −13.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Dalvin Cook |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12% | +0.8 |
| Xavier Gipson | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 18% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Whitehead | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Mosley | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/24 | 224 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +9.2 |
| Mike White | 2/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.9 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_15_NYJ_MIA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 30.
Total closed 36; the game landed 30 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 17.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 18% | −0.3 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 21% | +0.6 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +2.1 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −8.0 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jermaine Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 2 | −0.7 |
| Devon Achane | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Mike White | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 9 | 142 | 1 | 35% | +13.7 |
| Durham Smythe | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15% | +2.4 |
| Devon Achane | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 12% | +0.7 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +1.5 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −0.8 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12% | −1.6 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Chubb | 5 | 2 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Eli Apple | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elijah Campbell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Nik Needham | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
