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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 18, 2023 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 15
It turned at Q4 0:33, 3rd and 10, on Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 49.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, Seahawks +49.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:33 · 3rd and 10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seahawks
(:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 16 on third down, against Seahawks at 6 of 14 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 29-yard touchdown catch with 0:33 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Drew LockLead never changed again+717–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categorySeahawks
Eagles ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 69 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 58 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Seahawks 4.
Eagles outgained Seahawks 321-299 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
SEA's blitz rate sent, 8.1%, is past their previous low of 18.9% in week 2 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
SEA's pass rate over expected, −7.5 pts, is past their previous low of −4.3 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
PHI's blitz rate sent, 8.6%, is past their previous low of 11.1% in week 7 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
SEA's play-action rate, 8.6%, is past their previous low of 12.1% in week 9 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-8.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 69 snaps
Seahawks-7.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.6 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 82%
Tendencies room →Eagles50.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 52 early downs
Seahawks56.8%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Eagles13.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.4 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks8.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.0 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.2%.
Seahawks0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.7 vs their 25.7%, and they swing ±32.8 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 50%
Tendencies room →Eagles8.6%leaned — sat back · −12.7 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks8.1%off script — sat back · −18.5 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−2.03× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Eagles8.6%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −14.7 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
SEA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 8.1%, 18.5 points below their season mean of 26.6% and 2.0 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
22/33, 208 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.3 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
17/31, 143 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
1.7 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 21.9 | −4.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/31, 143 yd, 2 INT · 13 car, 82 yd, 2 TD |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.2 | +7.9 | 56% | 37% | 9% | 0% | 19 car, 86 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 26 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.8 | +8.4 | 69% | 83% | 13% | 18% | 4/4, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 12.8 | +3.6 | 92% | 97% | 19% | 27% | 5/6, 78 yd |
| Drew LockQB · Starter QB | 12.1 | +2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 208 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, -2 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.6 | −4.7 | 96% | 100% | 33% | 44% | 5/10, 56 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +1.8 | 96% | 100% | 17% | 15% | 5/5, 50 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | −6.6 | 59% | 49% | 10% | 6% | 18 car, 74 yd · 2/3, 1 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.1 | −8.1 | 84% | 92% | 30% | 15% | 1 car, 1 yd · 4/9, 30 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.1 | −8.8 | 75% | 94% | 28% | 49% | 3/9, 21 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −2.5 | 62% | 71% | 16% | 9% | 3/5, 16 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | 0.0 | 39% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 2.1 | −4.7 | 41% | 51% | 3% | 3% | 6 car, 21 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.2 | 32% | 27% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 1.6 | −1.8 | 44% | 63% | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 16 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 34% | 23% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 52% | 59% | 3% | 15% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:33 · Seahawks · 3rd & 10 at PHI 29 · gained 29 · +4.28 EP · +49.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 92 yards from the SEA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles6
Seahawks0Eagles7Seahawks0Eagles10Seahawks0Eagles10Seahawks3How the play was built
Three in the backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Eagles10Seahawks9Eagles10Seahawks10How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles16Seahawks10Eagles17Seahawks10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, the ball was not catchable.
Eagles17Seahawks13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Eagles17Seahawks19Eagles17Seahawks20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/31 | 143 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 2 | +6.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Kenneth Gainwell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 | 33% | +4.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Blankenship | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Morrow | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sydney Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/33 | 208 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_15_PHI_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 37 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 21 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +2.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 30% | −0.8 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +2.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10% | −2.4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| James Bradberry | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Ricks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 19% | +4.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 13% | +5.3 |
| Kenneth Walker | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 9% | +1.1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 28% | −0.8 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 16% | −1.8 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Brown | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Artie Burns | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Leonard Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Taylor | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Young | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
