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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at Seattle Seahawks 20. Final.
Eagles -5 upsetU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 15
Seattle Seahawks 20, Eagles 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:33, 3rd and 10, on Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 49.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:33 · 3rd and 10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seahawks
(:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Eagles closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, Seahawks +49.9% win probability on one snap.
49.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK MetcalfSeahawksQ4 0:56(:56) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf to PHI 29 for 34 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 21-S.Brown).
20.4pts
Julian LoveSeahawksQ4 0:13(:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at SEA 17. 20-J.Love ran ob at SEA 17 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
13.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 16 on third down, against Seahawks at 6 of 14 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Eagles164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +49.9 for SeahawksExpected points +4.28 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 5 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:33SEA +50% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:56SEA +20% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf to PHI 29 for 34 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 21-S.Brown).
4th · 0:13PHI +14% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at SEA 17. 20-J.Love ran ob at SEA 17 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 10:13SEA +14% win prob(10:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right guard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:15PHI +11% win prob(8:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 16-Q.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at SEA -4. Touchback.
4th · 11:21SEA +7% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on PHI-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 31 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 29-yard touchdown catch with 0:33 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Eagles ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Eagles: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.06Seahawks: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Eagles: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.09Seahawks: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Eagles: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.00Seahawks: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 69 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 58 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Seahawks 4.
NoteEagles outgained Seahawks 321-299 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 2.7% in week 9.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 14.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
SEA's play-action rate, 8.6%, is past their previous low of 12.1% in week 9 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 14.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −14.7 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteSEA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 8.1%, 18.5 points below their season mean of 26.6% and 2.0 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
78Iosua OpetaG · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%69 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%69 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%69 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap99%68 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time96%66 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time96%66 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time84%58 snaps
0D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
16Quez WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation52%36 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Rotational41%28 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Rotational32%22 snaps
80Julio JonesWR · Rotational32%22 snaps
13Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational7%5 snaps
35Boston ScottRB · Situational1%1 snap
56Tyler SteenG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Darius SlayCBCam JurgensGZach CunninghamILBTanner McKeeQBRashaad PennyRBAlbert OkwuegbunamTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Marcus MariotaQB
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%61 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%61 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%61 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%61 snaps
2Drew LockQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time92%56 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation75%46 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock pass+50% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:33 · Seahawks · 3rd & 10 at PHI 29 · gained 29 · +4.28 EP · +49.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 92 yards from the SEA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
44%
Yards
618
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.1451%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0568%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0018%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0545%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2320%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Eagles6Seahawks0
Eagles7Seahawks0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Seahawks 3
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Eagles 17
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 48
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Eagles10Seahawks0
Field goal17 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Seahawks 3
Eagles10Seahawks3
Field goal17 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Eagles 8
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 40
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 25
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 38
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Offense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Eagles10Seahawks9
Eagles10Seahawks10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Eagles 23
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Eagles16Seahawks10
Eagles17Seahawks10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Seahawks 1
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 26
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 37
4th quarter47 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles17Seahawks13
Field goal12 plays, from midfield to the Eagles 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Seahawks 45
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 25
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Eagles17Seahawks19
Eagles17Seahawks20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Eagles 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -5
Closing total
46
Eagles moneyline
-238
Seahawks moneyline
+195
Eagles closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 37 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 45°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the east; 0.03 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Eagles 8 days · Seahawks 8 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Pete Carroll
4th · 10:08PHI +7% win prob(10:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short middle to 9-K.Walker [98-J.Carter]. Philadelphia challenged the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock sacked at PHI 25 for -7 yards (98-J.Carter).
1st · 12:55SEA +6% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to SEA 43 for 18 yards (54-B.Wagner).
