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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 16, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 15
It turned at Q3 13:28, 1st and 10, on Najee Harris — 14.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:28 · 1st and 10
Najee Harris
Colts
(13:28) 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-32-J.Blackmon at PIT 18.
Indianapolis Colts 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:28, Colts +14.0% win probability on one snap.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Colts at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(13:28) 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). FUMBLE
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D.J. Montgomery's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:27 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
D.J. Montgomery14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Gardner MinshewLead never changed again+713–148 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryColts
Colts ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 54 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Colts’s 64 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Colts 6.
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's blitz rate sent, 3.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
IND's play-action rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 35.7% in week 5 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 11.1% in week 14 against 23.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-11.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 54 snaps
Colts-3.8 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their -4.2 pts, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Steelers43.6%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 39 early downs
Colts46.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 54%
Tendencies room →Steelers13.3%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Colts50.0%off script — faked the run · +27.7 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+2.20× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.2%.
Colts33.3%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 34.1%, and they swing ±30.8 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Steelers34.4%right on their number · +5.8 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Colts3.3%leaned — sat back · −13.2 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Steelers15.6%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Colts23.3%leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
IND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 27.7 points above their season mean of 22.3% and 2.2 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
18/28, 215 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
-0.7 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
16/23, 169 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-2.4 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Zack Moss banked 6.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 20.6 | +2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/28, 215 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 0 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 16.2 | +5.5 | 86% | 97% | 23% | 32% | 4/6, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −3.6 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 16/23, 169 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| D.J. MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +3.8 | 63% | 44% | 15% | 13% | 2/4, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Zack MossRB · Receiving Back | 12.3 | +6.3 | 28% | 47% | 11% | 2% | 4 car, 13 yd · 3/3, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Featured Receiver | 11.8 | +4.9 | 31% | 47% | 19% | 26% | 4/5, 78 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | −6.8 | 69% | 83% | 23% | 0% | 10 car, 40 yd · 5/6, 28 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +2.7 | 52% | 41% | 11% | 16% | 2/3, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler GoodsonRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | +0.6 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 69 yd · 2/2, 10 yd |
| Trey SermonRB · Committee Back | 8.8 | +0.1 | 43% | 34% | 0% | — | 17 car, 88 yd |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.7 | −3.7 | 93% | 97% | 27% | 56% | 3/7, 47 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.6 | 58% | 66% | 11% | 3% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.8 | 62% | 53% | 12% | 5% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −1.5 | 76% | 87% | 15% | 9% | 3/4, 16 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Featured Receiver | 2.3 | −8.0 | 97% | 97% | 19% | 26% | 1/5, 13 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 30% | 34% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 1.3 | −7.6 | 34% | 17% | 0% | — | 12 car, 33 yd |
| Mason RudolphQB | 0.1 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 57% | 41% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 28% | 30% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Rod WilliamsTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:28) 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-32-J.Blackmon at PIT 18.
Q3 13:28 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 10 · gained 2 · -5.18 EP · −14.7% win probability
153 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers6
Colts0Steelers12Colts0Steelers13Colts0Steelers13Colts6Steelers13Colts7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Steelers13Colts13Steelers13Colts14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Steelers13Colts20Steelers13Colts21Steelers13Colts24Steelers13Colts27Steelers13Colts30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 16/23 | 169 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −2.4 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2/3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Najee Harris | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 | −8.0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 6 | 62 | 1 | 23% | +8.8 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 27% | −6.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elandon Roberts | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Thompson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 18/28 | 215 | 3 | 0 | 3 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Sermon |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_15_PIT_IND
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0.5 |
| 1 |
| +1.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 23% | −2.1 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12% | +0.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 15% | +0.2 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Golden | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |
| 88 |
| 5.2 |
| 0 |
| +4.7 |
| Tyler Goodson | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 19% | +6.5 |
| D.J. Montgomery | 2 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 15% | −1.5 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 11% | +2.2 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | −0.2 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 19% | −1.6 |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | +0.9 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.J. Speed | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kwity Paye | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Brents | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dayo Odeyingbo | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Cross | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| DeForest Buckner | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
