2023 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 16, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -1.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓DomeColts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Indianapolis Colts 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:28, PIT +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 13:28PIT 13 — IND 14PIT ball · 1st & 10IND 59%

(13:28) 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). FUMBLE

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 13:28PIT +14% win prob(13:28) 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 12 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-32-J.Blackmon at PIT 18.
Q2 · 3:27PIT +12% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Montgomery.
Q2 · 0:27IND +12% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 2-D.Montgomery for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:03IND +10% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at PIT 7 for 42 yards (29-L.Wallace) [94-A.Watts].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:13PIT Touchdown
(1:13) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to IND 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), recovered by PIT-22-N.Harris at IND 1. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: PIT 6 — IND 0
Q2 · 14:11PIT Touchdown
(14:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 0
Q2 · 11:28IND Touchdown
(11:28) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 21-Z.Moss for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-38-M.Walker, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 7
Q2 · 0:27IND Touchdown
(:27) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 2-D.Montgomery for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 14
Q3 · 13:22IND Touchdown
(13:22) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 21
Q3 · 9:05IND Field goal
(9:05) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 24
Q4 · 9:20IND Field goal
(9:20) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 27
Q4 · 0:52IND Field goal
(:52) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: PIT 13 — IND 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Colts
Offensive plays	54	64
Total yards	216	373 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.32	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	33%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

18/28, 215 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

-0.7 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

16/23, 169 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.4 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Trey SermonRB

17 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Tyler GoodsonRB

11 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

4/5 for 78 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

4/6 for 62 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 38	5	0	2:08	Punt
2	IND	IND 31	10	32	5:22	Missed field goal
3	PIT	PIT 46	13	54	6:18	Touchdown +6
4	IND	IND 25	5	0	1:19	Punt
5	PIT	IND 1	3	1	0:46	Touchdown +7
6	IND	IND 25	9	80	2:46	Touchdown +7
7	PIT	PIT 36	4	19	1:55	Interception
8	IND	IND 29	13	55	6:03	Turnover on downs
9	PIT	PIT 2	7	31	2:39	Punt
10	IND	IND 26	4	48	0:22	Touchdown +7
11	PIT	PIT 25	4	9	0:22	End of half
12	IND	IND 25	5	8	1:32	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 10	1	2	0:06	Fumble
14	IND	PIT 18	2	18	0:06	Touchdown +7
15	PIT	PIT 25	5	-2	2:04	Punt
16	IND	IND 49	5	40	2:10	Field goal +3
17	PIT	PIT 25	10	66	5:48	Punt
18	IND	IND 17	15	70	8:57	Field goal +3
19	PIT	PIT 25	8	31	3:20	Interception
20	IND	PIT 45	6	20	3:49	Missed field goal
21	PIT	PIT 33	4	-8	0:26	Turnover on downs
22	IND	PIT 25	4	2	0:54	Field goal +3
23	PIT	PIT 25	3	13	0:48	End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	16/23	169	1	2	3	-2.4
Mason Rudolph	2/3	3	0	0	1	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaylen Warren	10	40	4.0	0	-2.3
Najee Harris	12	33	2.8	0	-8.0
Mitchell Trubisky	2	1	0.5	1	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	4	6	62	1	23%	8.8
George Pickens	3	7	47	0	27%	-6.6
Jaylen Warren	5	6	28	0	23%	-2.1
Allen Robinson	3	3	19	0	12%	0.8
Pat Freiermuth	3	4	16	0	15%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Elandon Roberts	7	1	0.0	0
Trenton Thompson	4	1	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	2	1.0	0
Alex Highsmith	4	0	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	2	0.0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	1	0.0	0
Levi Wallace	3	0	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	2	1	0.0	0
Markus Golden	1	2	0.0	1
T.J. Watt	2	1	2.0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	18/28	215	3	0	3	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Trey Sermon	17	88	5.2	4.7
Tyler Goodson	11	69	6.3	0.5
Zack Moss	4	13	3.3	-0.2
Gardner Minshew	2	0	0.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	4	5	78	0	19%	6.5
D.J. Montgomery	2	4	48	1	15%	-1.5
Mo Alie-Cox	2	3	21	1	11%	0.9
Zack Moss	3	3	20	1	11%	2.2
Josh Downs	3	3	19	0	11%	-0.2
Alec Pierce	1	5	13	0	19%	-1.6
Tyler Goodson	2	2	10	0	7%	0.9
Kylen Granson	1	1	6	0	4%	-1.2
Andrew Ogletree	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
E.J. Speed	7	1	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	2	3	0.0	0	1
Kwity Paye	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Jones	3	1	0.0	0	0
Julius Brents	1	3	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	1	3	0.0	0	0
Grover Stewart	1	3	0.5	0	0
Dayo Odeyingbo	1	2	1.5	0	0
Nick Cross	1	2	0.0	1	1
DeForest Buckner	2	1	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -1.5
Closing total: 41.5
PIT moneyline: +102
IND moneyline: -122

Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: PIT 9 days · IND 6 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Shane Steichen