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2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · State Farm Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

45

Arizona Cardinals

29

SF -12.5 ✓O 48 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 45–29. Biggest swing: Q1 4:33, SF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ARI ↑SF ↓
Q1 · 4:33SF 13 — ARI 7ARI ball · 4th & 3SF 86%

(4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 4:33SF +9% win prob(4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 13:41ARI +7% win prob(13:41) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 85-T.McBride to SF 21 for 38 yards (54-F.Warner).
  3. Q1 · 7:19ARI +4% win prob(7:19) 23-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at ARI 12 for 26 yards (34-J.Thompson).
  4. Q1 · 9:27ARI +4% win prob(9:27) 23-C.McCaffrey right end to SF 47 for 13 yards (24-S.Thomas).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:45ARI Touchdown

    (10:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 0 — ARI 7
  2. Q1 · 6:38SF Touchdown

    (6:38) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — ARI 7
  3. Q1 · 4:33SF Touchdown

    (4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — ARI 7
  4. Q2 · 14:15ARI Field goal

    (14:15) 5-M.Prater 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: SF 14 — ARI 10
  5. Q2 · 6:18ARI Field goal

    (6:18) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: SF 14 — ARI 13
  6. Q2 · 1:18SF Touchdown

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — ARI 13
  7. Q3 · 13:28SF Touchdown

    (13:28) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 28 — ARI 13
  8. Q3 · 4:23ARI Field goal

    (4:23) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: SF 28 — ARI 16
  9. Q3 · 1:11SF Touchdown

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 35 — ARI 16
  10. Q4 · 11:39ARI Touchdown

    (11:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-E.Demercado left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SF 35 — ARI 22
  11. Q4 · 7:14SF Touchdown

    (7:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 42 — ARI 22
  12. Q4 · 3:12SF Field goal

    (3:12) 4-J.Moody 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 45 — ARI 22
  13. Q4 · 0:53ARI Touchdown

    (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 84-E.Higgins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 45 — ARI 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersCardinals
Offensive plays5173
Total yards408436 (edge)
Yards per play8.0 (edge)6.0
Expected points added / play0.43 (edge)0.00
Success rate53% (edge)40%
Dropback rate53%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.68 (edge)-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.140.23 (edge)
Third downs4/7 (edge)7/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)12 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps2123 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Cardinals outgained 49ers 436–408 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

16/25, 242 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.2 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

26/39, 211 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.4 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

18 att, 115 yds, 1 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

14 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

10/11 for 102 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

5/5 for 72 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 259704:20Touchdown +7
2SFSF 2510754:07Touchdown +7
3ARIARI 257332:11Defensive touchdown
4ARIARI 259405:11Field goal +3
5SFSF 25541:42Punt
6ARIARI 3111446:15Field goal +3
7SFSF 2512555:00Touchdown +7
8ARIARI 25550:21Defensive touchdown
9SFSF 126420:53End of half
10SFSF 256751:42Touchdown +7
11ARIARI 25521:39Punt
12SFSF 31431:01Punt
13ARIARI 1012816:18Field goal +3
14SFSF 408573:12Touchdown +7
15ARIARI 2510754:38Touchdown +6
16SFSF 259754:21Touchdown +7
17ARIARI 256110:56Interception
18SFARI 476223:04Field goal +3
19ARIARI 2514752:22Touchdown +7
20SFARI 45300:47End of game

12 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 81 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy16/2524240018.2
Sam Darnold2/3200000.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey181156.413.1
Jordan Mason5204.00-0.9
Deebo Samuel11111.001.3
Sam Darnold2-2-1.00-2.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian McCaffrey5572219%5.2
George Kittle2454015%5.0
Deebo Samuel4748227%4.8
Brandon Aiyuk3537019%2.5
Kyle Juszczyk222608%3.1
Jauan Jennings222508%-0.4
Ronnie Bell01004%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Deommodore Lenoir710.001
Fred Warner710.500
Dre Greenlaw610.000
Ji'Ayir Brown510.000
Kevin Givens300.000
Ambry Thomas210.000
Tashaun Gipson210.000
Isaiah Oliver300.000
Charvarius Ward210.022
Javon Kinlaw111.000

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray26/39211123-7.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner14866.113.2
Emari Demercado46416.013.5
Kyler Murray6498.202.4
Michael Carter3279.000.9
Greg Dortch155.00-0.1
Rondale Moore133.00-0.3
Clayton Tune100.00-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Trey McBride1011102029%0.8
Elijah Higgins4444111%6.1
Geoff Swaim112603%2.2
Greg Dortch231508%2.1
Michael Carter331008%-0.1
Emari Demercado13608%-2.9
Rondale Moore23508%-0.6
James Conner33308%-1.9
Michael Wilson03008%-3.4
Zach Pascal040011%-6.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Thompson410.000
Roy Lopez140.000
Starling Thomas500.001
Garrett Williams310.000
Budda Baker220.000
Josh Woods130.000
Dante Stills210.000
Victor Dimukeje020.001
Antonio Hamilton110.003
Greg Dortch100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -12.5
Closing total
48
SF moneyline
-750
ARI moneyline
+525

49ers closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 48; the game landed 74 — over by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
open · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
SF 7 days · ARI 14 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Jonathan Gannon

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.