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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 48 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on 49ers164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.4 for CardinalsExpected points −7.61 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 36 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:33SF +9% win prob(4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:41ARI +7% win prob(13:41) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 85-T.McBride to SF 21 for 38 yards (54-F.Warner).
1st · 7:19ARI +4% win prob(7:19) 23-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at ARI 12 for 26 yards (34-J.Thompson).
1st · 9:27ARI +4% win prob(9:27) 23-C.McCaffrey right end to SF 47 for 13 yards (24-S.Thomas).
1st · 6:27ARI +4% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 87-G.Swaim to SF 49 for 26 yards (27-J.Brown). Penalty on SF-57-D.Greenlaw, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 10:40ARI +3% win prob(10:40) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 32 for 7 yards (24-S.Thomas).
1st · 8:37
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Charvarius Ward's 66-yard touchdown with 4:33 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.4349ers: +0.43 expected points added per play
+0.00Cardinals: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.6849ers: +0.68 expected points added per play
−0.13Cardinals: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1449ers: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.23Cardinals: +0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 51 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 73 at 63%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Cardinals 4.
NoteCardinals outgained 49ers 436-408 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's blitz rate sent, 3.7%, is past their previous low of 7.7% in week 6 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cardinals3.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteARI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 3.7%, 16.1 points below their season mean of 19.8% and 1.7 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%56 snaps
55Jon FelicianoC · Every snap100%56 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Full-time96%54 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Full-time96%54 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time88%49 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time86%48 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time86%48 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time82%46 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Full-time82%46 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation77%43 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:33 · Cardinals · 4th & 3 at SF 42 · gained nothing · -7.61 EP · −17.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 81 yards from the ARI 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
44%
Yards
842
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1062%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.2652%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.7367%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.4050%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0620%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
49ers0Cardinals6
49ers0Cardinals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 2
49ers6Cardinals7
49ers7Cardinals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 12
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
49ers13Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 42
49ers14Cardinals7
The period ended9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 40
2nd quarter46 plays
49ers14Cardinals10
Field goal2 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the 49ers 40
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 29
49ers14Cardinals13
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the 49ers 25
49ers20Cardinals13
49ers21Cardinals13
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the Cardinals 46
3rd quarter40 plays
49ers27Cardinals13
49ers28Cardinals13
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 41
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 34
49ers28Cardinals16
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the 49ers 5
49ers34Cardinals16
49ers35Cardinals16
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 28
4th quarter47 plays
49ers35Cardinals22
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the 49ers 49
49ers41Cardinals22
49ers42Cardinals22
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 19
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 36
49ers45Cardinals22
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 25
49ers45Cardinals28
49ers45Cardinals29
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 8
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
