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2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · Lambeau Field

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

34

Green Bay Packers

20

GB -4 upsetO 41.5 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34–20. Biggest swing: Q1 1:48, TB +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑TB ↓
Q1 · 1:48TB 3 — GB 0TB ball · 2nd & 5GB 55%

(1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 3 for -6 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare), RECOVERED by GB-55-K.Enagbare at TB 4.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 1:48TB +15% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 3 for -6 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare), RECOVERED by GB-55-K.Enagbare at TB 4.
  2. Q2 · 12:26GB +14% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 0:14GB +13% win prob(:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
  4. Q1 · 2:28TB +11% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Reed.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:06TB Field goal

    (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — GB 0
  2. Q1 · 0:54GB Touchdown

    (:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 3 — GB 7
  3. Q2 · 12:26TB Touchdown

    (12:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10 — GB 7
  4. Q2 · 7:13GB Field goal

    (7:13) 17-A.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — GB 10
  5. Q2 · 0:14TB Field goal

    (:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 13 — GB 10
  6. Q3 · 11:01TB Touchdown

    (11:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 20 — GB 10
  7. Q3 · 4:26GB Touchdown

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 20 — GB 17
  8. Q3 · 0:26TB Touchdown

    (:26) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 41-K.Kieft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 27 — GB 17
  9. Q4 · 10:07GB Field goal

    (10:07) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: TB 27 — GB 20
  10. Q4 · 6:40TB Touchdown

    (6:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 19-D.Moore for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 34 — GB 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersPackers
Offensive plays5857
Total yards454 (edge)322
Yards per play7.8 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.36 (edge)0.03
Success rate52% (edge)46%
Dropback rate57%72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.71 (edge)0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09 (edge)-0.13
Third downs7/11 (edge)6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)17
Sacks taken52 (edge)
Turnovers11

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

22/28, 381 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

23.5 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

29/39, 284 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +11.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

21 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

13 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

10/12 for 155 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · 12.5 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Dontayvion WicksWR

6/7 for 97 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 2511545:58Field goal +3
2GBGB 2512716:37Turnover on downs
3TBTB 4200:44Fumble
4GBTB 4340:52Touchdown +7
5TBTB 259753:28Touchdown +7
6GBGB 259525:12Field goal +3
7TBTB 255111:38Punt
8GBGB 46203:18Punt
9TBTB 119712:03Field goal +3
10GBGB 25200:10End of half
11GBGB 25530:39Punt
12TBTB 349663:26Touchdown +7
13GBGB 2513856:37Touchdown +7
14TBTB 2511643:58Touchdown +7
15GBGB 2511605:16Field goal +3
16TBTB 258753:34Touchdown +7
17GBGB 2210272:12Fumble
18TBGB 498384:18End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield22/2838140523.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White21894.20-1.2
Chase Edmonds3134.30-0.3
Deven Thompkins1-1-1.00-0.8
Baker Mayfield2-2-1.00-3.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Godwin1012155044%12.5
David Moore226817%5.9
Mike Evans4657122%6.0
Rachaad White225017%5.4
Cade Otton224407%3.9
Trey Palmer12507%-0.9
Ko Kieft11214%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Antoine Winfield620.000
Lavonte David520.501
K.J. Britt330.000
Christian Izien410.000
Dee Delaney310.000
Anthony Nelson221.000
Zyon McCollum210.001
Kaevon Merriweather120.000
Jamel Dean300.000
Joe Tryon110.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love29/392842023.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones13534.10-2.3
Patrick Taylor166.000.2
Jordan Love210.500.4
Kenyan Drake100.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dontayvion Wicks6797019%7.2
Tucker Kraft4657117%3.6
Jayden Reed6852122%0.5
Romeo Doubs333008%2.3
Malik Heath332908%1.9
Aaron Jones4416011%-1.7
Bo Melton12706%-0.6
Ben Sims01003%-0.8
Patrick Taylor22-406%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jonathan Owens650.000
Rudy Ford440.001
Quay Walker330.000
Carrington Valentine410.001
Tedarrell Slaton220.000
Lukas Van Ness311.000
De'Vondre Campbell400.000
Devonte Wyatt301.000
Kenny Clark212.001
Kingsley Enagbare201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -4
Closing total
41.5
TB moneyline
+180
GB moneyline
-218

Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 54 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
42°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
TB 7 days · GB 6 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Matt LaFleur