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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 at Green Bay Packers 20. Final.
Packers -4 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34, Packers 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:48, 2nd and 5, on Baker Mayfield — 15.1 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:48 · 2nd and 5
Baker Mayfield
Packers
(1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 3 for -6 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare), RECOVERED by GB-55-K.Enagbare at TB 4.
O 41.5 ✓
Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34–20. Biggest swing: Q1 1:48, Packers +15.1% win probability on one snap.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ2 12:26(12:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.5pts
Chase McLaughlinBuccaneersQ2 0:14(:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
13.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.71 expected points per dropback, against Packers at +0.10 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.36 expected points per snap, against Packers at +0.03 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Packers at 6 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Packers at 6 of 12 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Buccaneers153 of 164 plays carry both curves
(1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 3 for -6 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare), RECOVERED by GB-55-K.Enagbare at TB 4.
Swing +15.1 for PackersExpected points +5.69 for PackersThe model had Buccaneers 6 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:48TB +15% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 3 for -6 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare), RECOVERED by GB-55-K.Enagbare at TB 4.
2nd · 12:26GB +14% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:14GB +13% win prob(:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
1st · 2:28TB +11% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Reed.
3rd · 12:17GB +11% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to GB 31 for 15 yards (59-D.Campbell).
3rd · 13:42GB +9% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to GB 44 for 18 yards (34-J.Owens).
3rd · 3:04
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 46-yard field goal with 0:14 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:06Chase McLaughlin·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–0
1st0:54Tucker Kraft·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+73–7
Buccaneers ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.71 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.36Buccaneers: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.03Packers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.71Buccaneers: +0.71 expected points added per play
+0.10Packers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Buccaneers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.13Packers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 58 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Packers’s 57 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 6, Packers 5.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.0 pts in week 14 against −1.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Packers15.2%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteTB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 36.4%, 13.6 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 1.5 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield sacked−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 3 for -6 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare), RECOVERED by GB-55-K.Enagbare at TB 4.
Q1 1:48 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 5 at TB 9 · lost 5 · -5.69 EP · −16.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 75 yards from the TB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
43%
Yards
773
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.3460%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0972%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1571%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4258%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Buccaneers3Packers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Packers 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Buccaneers 3
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Buccaneers 4 to the Buccaneers 9
Buccaneers3Packers6
Buccaneers3Packers7
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
2nd quarter48 plays
Buccaneers9Packers7
Buccaneers10Packers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Packers 19
Buccaneers10Packers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Buccaneers 18
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 31
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Buccaneers 49
Buccaneers13Packers10
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Packers 28
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 28
Buccaneers19Packers10
Buccaneers20Packers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Packers 26
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Buccaneers20Packers16
Buccaneers20Packers17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Buccaneers 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Buccaneers26Packers17
Buccaneers27Packers17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Packers 2
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter39 plays
Buccaneers27Packers20
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Buccaneers 15
Buccaneers33Packers20
Buccaneers34Packers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 48
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Buccaneers 30
The period ended12 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Packers 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
