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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Washington Commanders 20 at Los Angeles Rams 28. Final.
Rams -6.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 15
Los Angeles Rams 28, Commanders 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 2:54, 4th and 2, on Terry McLaurin — 8.7 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:54 · 4th and 2
Terry McLaurin
Commanders
(2:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to LA 21 for 24 yards (1-D.Kendrick).
Dome
Rams closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Los Angeles Rams 28–20. Biggest swing: Q1 2:54, Commanders +8.7% win probability on one snap.
8.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sam HowellRamsQ1 0:40(:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Thomas (31-N.Hampton).
6.2pts
Kyren WilliamsCommandersQ2 9:16(9:16) 23-K.Williams left tackle to WAS 10 for 11 yards (57-C.Barton, 35-P.Butler). FUMBLES (35-P.Butler), RECOVERED by WAS-29-K.Fuller at WAS 8.
8.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 14 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 5 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Rams at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Commanders166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(2:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to LA 21 for 24 yards (1-D.Kendrick).
Swing −8.7 for RamsExpected points −4.40 for RamsThe model had Commanders 11 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:54LA +9% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to LA 21 for 24 yards (1-D.Kendrick).
2nd · 9:16WAS +8% win prob(9:16) 23-K.Williams left tackle to WAS 10 for 11 yards (57-C.Barton, 35-P.Butler). FUMBLES (35-P.Butler), RECOVERED by WAS-29-K.Fuller at WAS 8.
1st · 0:40WAS +6% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Thomas (31-N.Hampton).
1st · 12:56LA +6% win prob(12:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 15-D.Robinson to LA 41 for 21 yards (20-J.Martin).
1st · 7:42WAS +4% win prob(7:42) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.
2nd · 1:18WAS +4% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to WAS 41 for 4 yards (25-B.St-Juste). FUMBLES (25-B.St-Juste), touched at WAS 41, RECOVERED by WAS-31-K.Curl at WAS 39.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lucas Havrisik's 22-yard field goal with 7:42 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:42Lucas Havrisik·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap C.TinkerLead never changed again+30–3
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.02Rams: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.08Rams: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.44Commanders: −0.44 expected points added per play
−0.11Rams: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 58 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Rams’s 74 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +3.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Rams9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteLA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 29.7%, 11.8 points above their season mean of 17.9% and 1.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Howell pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to LA 21 for 24 yards (1-D.Kendrick).
Q1 2:54 · Commanders · 4th & 2 at LA 45 · gained 24 · +4.40 EP · +13.9% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 82 yards from the LA 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
37%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR74-0.0249%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1672%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.6056%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.5060%
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders3 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 31
Commanders0Rams3
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Commanders 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Rams 12
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Commanders 21
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 14
Commanders0Rams9
Commanders0Rams10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Commanders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 32
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Commanders 45
The period ended5 plays
Commanders0Rams13
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 5
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Commanders0Rams19
Commanders0Rams20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 38
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Rams 44
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 15
Commanders6Rams20
Commanders7Rams20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Rams 19
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Commanders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 13
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Commanders7Rams26
Commanders7Rams28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Commanders 23
Intercepted2 plays
No good8 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Commanders 25
Commanders13Rams28
Commanders14Rams28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Rams 29
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 31
Commanders20Rams28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Rams 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Commanders 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
