2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Washington Commanders

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -6.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓DomeRams closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Los Angeles Rams 28–20. Biggest swing: Q1 2:54, LA +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 2:54WAS 0 — LA 3WAS ball · 4th & 2LA 78%

(2:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to LA 21 for 24 yards (1-D.Kendrick).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 2:54LA +9% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to LA 21 for 24 yards (1-D.Kendrick).
Q2 · 9:16WAS +8% win prob(9:16) 23-K.Williams left tackle to WAS 10 for 11 yards (57-C.Barton, 35-P.Butler). FUMBLES (35-P.Butler), RECOVERED by WAS-29-K.Fuller at WAS 8.
Q1 · 0:40WAS +6% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Thomas (31-N.Hampton).
Q1 · 12:56LA +6% win prob(12:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 15-D.Robinson to LA 41 for 21 yards (20-J.Martin).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:42LA Field goal
(7:42) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: WAS 0 — LA 3
Q2 · 2:23LA Touchdown
(2:23) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — LA 10
Q2 · 0:06LA Field goal
(:06) 8-L.Havrisik 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: WAS 0 — LA 13
Q3 · 14:16LA Touchdown
(14:16) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — LA 20
Q3 · 6:30WAS Touchdown
(6:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 4-C.Samuel for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — LA 20
Q4 · 13:31LA Touchdown
(13:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — LA 28
Q4 · 7:24WAS Touchdown
(7:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 14 — LA 28
Q4 · 1:50WAS Touchdown
(1:50) (Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-C.Samuel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — LA 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Rams
Offensive plays	58	74
Total yards	297	447 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	38%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	3/14	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

25/33, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.9 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jacoby BrissettQB

8/10, 124 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.4 expected points added · +30.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

27 att, 152 yds, 1 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Chris RodriguezRB

10 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

6/12 for 141 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

8/8 for 111 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	5	6	0:49	Punt
2	LA	LA 19	11	82	6:32	Field goal +3
3	WAS	WAS 25	14	73	7:03	Turnover on downs
4	LA	LA 12	12	78	6:29	Fumble
5	WAS	WAS 8	4	6	1:37	Punt
6	LA	LA 47	11	53	5:11	Touchdown +7
7	WAS	WAS 26	5	6	0:30	Punt
8	LA	LA 28	4	31	0:41	Fumble
9	WAS	WAS 39	4	-8	0:34	Turnover on downs
10	LA	WAS 15	6	-2	0:31	Field goal +3
11	WAS	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
12	LA	LA 25	4	75	0:53	Touchdown +7
13	WAS	WAS 25	9	31	3:43	Punt
14	LA	LA 12	4	-3	1:11	Punt
15	WAS	LA 48	8	48	2:48	Touchdown +7
16	LA	LA 25	9	33	4:27	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 9	4	4	1:42	Punt
18	LA	LA 49	6	53	1:51	Touchdown +8
19	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:13	Interception
20	LA	WAS 38	8	28	4:07	Missed field goal
21	WAS	WAS 33	6	62	1:48	Touchdown +7
22	LA	LA 25	5	-2	2:14	Punt
23	WAS	WAS 35	10	69	3:17	Touchdown +6
24	LA	WAS 47	6	21	1:46	End of game

8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 82 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	8/10	124	2	0	0	9.4
Sam Howell	11/26	102	1	1	1	-12.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Rodriguez	10	35	3.5	-1.0
Sam Howell	3	22	7.3	1.3
Antonio Gibson	4	15	3.8	-0.7
Jacoby Brissett	2	9	4.5	0.5
Tress Way	1	0	0.0	-4.3
Jonathan Williams	1	-2	-2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	6	12	141	1	35%	4.9
Curtis Samuel	5	9	41	2	26%	3.5
Antonio Gibson	5	5	20	0	15%	0.1
Jahan Dotson	1	1	12	0	3%	1.2
Logan Thomas	1	3	7	0	9%	-6.5
Byron Pringle	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.3
Dyami Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
John Bates	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Jonathan Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Khaleke Hudson	7	5	0.0	0
Quan Martin	7	3	1.0	0
Kendall Fuller	4	6	0.0	0
Percy Butler	1	8	0.0	0
Cody Barton	1	8	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	1	4	0.0	0
Casey Toohill	3	1	0.0	0
K.J. Henry	3	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	1	3	0.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	1	2	0.0	1

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	25/33	258	2	0	3	7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	27	152	5.6	1	-2.8
Demarcus Robinson	1	23	23.0	0	1.4
Royce Freeman	6	16	2.7	0	-1.8
Puka Nacua	2	3	1.5	0	-0.9
Matthew Stafford	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	8	8	111	1	25%	10.2
Puka Nacua	5	8	50	0	25%	-1.0
Demarcus Robinson	2	3	44	1	9%	5.8
Tyler Higbee	4	5	36	0	16%	2.1
Davis Allen	1	1	14	0	3%	0.8
Kyren Williams	5	7	3	0	22%	-9.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ernest Jones	2	5	1.0	0	1
Quentin Lake	4	1	0.0	0	2
Jordan Fuller	1	3	0.0	0	0
Bobby Brown	2	2	0.0	0	0
Derion Kendrick	4	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Rozeboom	3	1	0.0	0	1
Ben Skowronek	3	0	0.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	1	2	0.0	0	0
John Johnson	2	1	0.0	1	1
Michael Hoecht	3	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -6.5
Closing total: 48.5
WAS moneyline: +240
LA moneyline: -298

Rams closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 48 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: WAS 14 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Sean McVay