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Chicago Bears 27, Cardinals 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:12, 1st and 10, on Cole Kmet — 8.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:12 · 1st and 10
Cole Kmet
Bears
(9:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 85-C.Kmet to ARI 21 for 53 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Bears closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Chicago Bears 27–16. Biggest swing: Q1 9:12, Bears +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler MurrayBearsQ1 11:32(11:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 14 for -9 yards (93-Ju.Jones).
4.6pts
Justin FieldsBearsQ1 6:43(6:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at ARI 15 for -9 yards (55-D.Stills). PENALTY on ARI-24-S.Thomas, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ARI 6 - No Play.
4.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 7 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Cardinals165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(9:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 85-C.Kmet to ARI 21 for 53 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Swing +8.8 for BearsExpected points +3.39 for BearsThe model had Cardinals 9 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:12CHI +9% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 85-C.Kmet to ARI 21 for 53 yards (34-J.Thompson).
1st · 11:32ARI +5% win prob(11:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 14 for -9 yards (93-Ju.Jones).
1st · 6:43CHI +4% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at ARI 15 for -9 yards (55-D.Stills). PENALTY on ARI-24-S.Thomas, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ARI 6 - No Play.
1st · 9:18CHI +4% win prob(9:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to CHI 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.
2nd · 12:59CHI +4% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:48CHI +4% win prob(6:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Fields's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:22 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:22Justin Fields·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
4th1:05Cairo Santos·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+316–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryBears
Cardinals1–8Bears
306Total yards420
5.1Yards per play6.3
32%Success rate43%
44%Third-down rate53%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays12
16First downs21
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Cardinals: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.12Bears: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Cardinals: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.00Bears: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Cardinals: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.23Bears: +0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bears’s 67 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Bears 5.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 9 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears9.5%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 13.2 points above their season mean of 53.4% and 1.2 times their own 11.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 85-C.Kmet to ARI 21 for 53 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Q1 9:12 · Bears · 1st & 10 at CHI 26 · gained 53 · +3.39 EP · +11.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 90 yards from the CHI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
38%
Yards
726
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2769%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0650%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.8439%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.8550%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3067%
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.280%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 47
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 23
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.2 seconds
Cardinals0Bears6
Cardinals0Bears7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Cardinals 3
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to midfield
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Cardinals 40
2nd quarter53 plays
Cardinals0Bears13
Cardinals0Bears14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Cardinals 10
Punt6 plays
Cardinals0Bears20
Cardinals0Bears21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Cardinals 1
Cardinals6Bears21
Cardinals7Bears21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bears 16
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 31
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 41
Punt6 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 42
3rd quarter34 plays
Cardinals10Bears21
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Bears 37
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 44
Punt4 plays
Cardinals10Bears24
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Cardinals 31
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt1 play
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Cardinals 14
Cardinals16Bears24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Bears 38
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 27
Cardinals16Bears27
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 11
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Bears 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
