2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Soldier Field

Arizona Cardinals

Chicago BearsWinner

CHI -4.5 ✓O 42 ✓Bears closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Chicago Bears 27–16. Biggest swing: Q1 9:12, CHI +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:12ARI 0 — CHI 0CHI ball · 1st & 10CHI 64%

(9:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 85-C.Kmet to ARI 21 for 53 yards (34-J.Thompson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:12CHI +9% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 85-C.Kmet to ARI 21 for 53 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Q1 · 11:32ARI +5% win prob(11:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 14 for -9 yards (93-Ju.Jones).
Q1 · 6:43CHI +4% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at ARI 15 for -9 yards (55-D.Stills). PENALTY on ARI-24-S.Thomas, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ARI 6 - No Play.
Q1 · 9:18CHI +4% win prob(9:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to CHI 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:22CHI Touchdown
(6:22) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — CHI 7
Q2 · 12:59CHI Touchdown
(12:59) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — CHI 14
Q2 · 7:19CHI Touchdown
(7:19) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 84-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — CHI 21
Q2 · 2:33ARI Touchdown
(2:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 7 — CHI 21
Q3 · 12:17ARI Field goal
(12:17) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — CHI 21
Q3 · 1:08CHI Field goal
(1:08) 8-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — CHI 24
Q4 · 6:48ARI Touchdown
(6:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ARI 16 — CHI 24
Q4 · 1:05CHI Field goal
(1:05) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: ARI 16 — CHI 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Bears
Offensive plays	60	67
Total yards	306	420 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.16	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	32%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	-0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.23 (edge)
Third downs	7/16	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

24/38, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

15/27, 170 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

20 att, 112 yds, 1 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

9 att, 97 yds, 1 TD

7.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

4/5 for 107 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

James ConnerRB

5/5 for 67 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 26	6	21	1:46	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 9	7	13	4:02	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 26	7	71	2:56	Touchdown +7
4	ARI	ARI 25	8	25	2:25	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 10	12	90	5:57	Touchdown +7
6	ARI	ARI 25	5	-2	1:01	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 46	9	54	4:41	Touchdown +7
8	ARI	ARI 25	11	75	4:45	Touchdown +7
9	CHI	CHI 25	5	6	0:49	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 34	4	7	0:39	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 24	4	10	0:42	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 20	3	29	0:17	End of half
13	ARI	ARI 43	6	20	2:48	Field goal +3
14	CHI	CHI 25	8	23	3:24	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 23	4	0	2:09	Punt
16	CHI	CHI 20	10	49	5:35	Field goal +3
17	ARI	ARI 25	5	1	1:11	Punt
18	CHI	CHI 20	8	71	4:31	Interception
19	ARI	ARI 20	9	75	3:45	Touchdown +6
20	CHI	CHI 25	5	9	2:16	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 9	7	18	1:24	Turnover on downs
22	CHI	ARI 27	7	16	1:55	Field goal +3
23	ARI	ARI 31	6	45	1:02	End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	24/38	230	2	0	2	-6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	12	45	3.8	-1.7
Kyler Murray	5	32	6.4	-1.6
Emari Demercado	2	10	5.0	0.2
Rondale Moore	1	6	6.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Conner	5	5	67	1	14%	6.3
Greg Dortch	2	5	45	1	14%	0.2
Emari Demercado	7	8	40	0	22%	-4.7
Trey McBride	6	8	31	0	22%	-1.2
Rondale Moore	2	3	30	0	8%	-0.9
Elijah Higgins	2	3	17	0	8%	-0.2
Michael Carter	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Michael Wilson	0	4	0	0	11%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Budda Baker	6	3	0	0
Krys Barnes	5	3	0	0
Starling Thomas	7	1	0	0
Jalen Thompson	4	1	1	3
Dante Stills	1	3	0	0
Kevin Strong	1	3	0	0
Roy Lopez	2	1	0	0
Naquan Jones	1	2	0	0
Cameron Thomas	3	0	0	0
Antonio Hamilton	1	2	0	2

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	15/27	170	1	1	1	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Khalil Herbert	20	112	5.6	1	5.5
Justin Fields	9	97	10.8	1	7.5
Roschon Johnson	9	37	4.1	0	-1.2
Velus Jones	1	4	4.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Kmet	4	5	107	0	22%	5.4
D.J. Moore	3	6	18	0	26%	-0.4
Roschon Johnson	3	3	16	0	13%	-1.9
Robert Tonyan	1	1	14	0	4%	0.8
Khalil Herbert	1	2	9	0	9%	-4.5
Darnell Mooney	2	4	5	0	17%	-1.0
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	1	1	4%	1.3
Velus Jones	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyler Gordon	6	1	1.0	1
Jaquan Brisker	4	3	0.0	1
T.J. Edwards	5	1	0.0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	4	2	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	3	0	0.0	0
DeMarcus Walker	2	1	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	3	0	0.0	0
Terell Smith	3	0	0.0	2
Montez Sweat	2	0	0.0	1
Elijah Hicks	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -4.5
Closing total: 42
ARI moneyline: +180
CHI moneyline: -218

Bears closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 42; the game landed 43 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: ARI 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Matt Eberflus